Treve was truly brilliant when running
away with last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe race at
Longchamp, but things just haven’t gone her way this season and she
once again let supporters down when finishing fourth in the Group
1 Prix Vermeille at the Paris track in her big-race warm-up on
September 14. The filly’s below-par effort has blown
the ante-post market for this season’s renewal of Europe’s
premier middle-distance contest wide open.
Treve is now priced at around
8/1 on BetFair to retain her crown on October 5 at Longchamp,
despite having failed to get her head in front during the current
campaign. The horse was widely expected to win the Prix Vermeille
under her new jockey - Thierry Jarnet - who had been sensationally
brought in to replace Frankie Dettori after trainer Criquette
Head-Maarek had decided the Italian-born superstar rider was not the
right man for the job.
Head-Maarek’s controversial decision
came on the back of much deliberation following Treve’s bitterly
disappointing run in the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal
Ascot in June when she was sent off a hot odds-on favourite but
could only finish third behind the John Gosden-trained The Fugue.
On faster ground than is ideal for her, Treve moved poorly to the
post and Dettori reported afterwards that the filly never felt right
- before, during, or after the race. She never travelled during the
contest with her usual fluency and made laboured progress under
strong pressure around the home turn before struggling on to fill
third place, far below expectations.
Some seasoned observers wondered if
Dettori had simply been the fall guy for the trainer having made an
error in running her star horse on the wrong ground, so the Italian
would be entitled to feel a shade vindicated with Jarnet proving no
more effective on Treve’s comeback run. Put plainly, the daughter
of Derby
winner Motivator showed little of her old dash when
finished behind shock winner Baltic
Baroness in the Prix Vermeille – winner of a modest
listed contest on her previous outing - form that leaves her with a
mountain to climb to improve enough in the space of three weeks to
retain her crown in Paris on the first Sunday of October.
Bookmaker reaction to Treve’s eclipse
was predictably swift with the filly being pushed out to as far as
10/1 in places, as the Oaks and King George VI & Queen Elizabeth
Stakes heroine Taghrooda advanced to become the new ante-post
favourite at odds of 5/1. A genuinely high-class filly who might well
have been in season when narrowly beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks by
Tapestry last time out, Taghrooda - trained by John Gosden - was
terrific when winning at Ascot and would be a danger to all if back
to that sort of form.
In what proved a dramatic weekend in
the betting market for the big race, another of the leading
contenders, German champion Sea The Moon, was taken out of the
betting lists on the news that he is unlikely to race again after
suffering a training setback in the wake of his shock defeat at Baden
Baden, which ultimately
proved more serious than first thought and forced him into
retirement.
The Markus Flug-trained son of racing
legend Sea The Stars (also the sire of Taghrooda), had looked a
world-beater when wiping the floor with smart opposition in the
German Derby at Hamburg in the summer, storming to a barely
believable 11-length success that marked him down as a potentially
exceptional middle-distance performer.
On the same day that Treve put the cat
amongst the pigeons with her defeat at Longchamp, another horse came
very much back into the reckoning for the outstanding race. Ruler of
the World, winner of the 2013 Investec Derby at Epsom had his first
run since finishing well down the field in the Dubai
World Cup. The horse – who ended last term finishing
a very close third to the high-class Farhh in the Champion Stakes at
Ascot in October - showed he retains his ability in running out an
impressive length-and-a-half winner of the Group 2 Prix Foy, under a
well judged front-running ride from none other than Frankie Dettori.
Ruler of the World won the Derby in the
colours of John Magnier and his Ballydoyle partners, but ran in the
Prix Foy in the silks of Al Shaqaab Racing - the Qatari-based owners
who have invested a massive amount of money in European racing and
who bought a significant share of the son of Galileo prior to his
Dubai World Cup flop. There was plenty to like about the way the
four-year-old went about his business on his first start of the term,
leading all the way - a tactic that would ensure he stays out of
trouble in the big race itself. He found plenty for pressure when the
favourite Flintshire stayed on well inside the final furlong and was
always doing enough to land the spoils. Ruler of the World was cut
from 33/1 to 16/1 by most firms to follow up over course and distance
in the ‘Arc’ itself.
While Ruler of the World stated his
case for the Arc, another Aidan O’Brien-trained star Australia, was
doubtless back in his stable unaware that his narrow
defeat the previous day at the hands of The Grey Gatsby
- in a tremendous duel for the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes at the
Curragh - had also left punters scratching their heads and wondering
whether he would make it to the starting stalls at Longchamp.
Joseph O’Brien – who was riding
Australia - had appeared to have everything under control as he
cruised into the lead a furlong-and-a-half from home and went clear
of his rivals, only for the brilliant Ryan Moore to produce a
stunning finish on Kevin Ryan’s The Grey Gatsby, who subsequently
wore down the dual Derby and Juddmonte
International Stakes winner in the shadow of the post
to win by a head – evening the score with the horse who beat him
two lengths at York.
Australia had looked one of the best
bets of the season and was sent off as the 3/10 market leader, but he
ended up having a hard race in defeat and understandably was pushed
out in the ante-post market for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe to as
big as 25/1, having been around a 9/1 chance prior to his defeat. The
horse has since been removed from availability for selection in
places, amid rumours that the O’Brien horse has been pulled from
the race.
One Arc candidate that has yet to taste
any sort of defeat is the exciting French three-year-old Avenir
Certain, who has risen up the ante-post market while many around her
have faltered in the build-up to the big race. The horse is
subsequently now a 6/1 second-favourite. The winner of all six of her
career starts, the Jean-Claude Rouget-trained daughter of Le Havre
won
the Group 1 Prix de Diane LonginesLongines (French Oaks) at Chantilly
in June, then followed up with another impressive win
at Deauville in August. Avenir Certain handles soft ground well and
with Longchamp in October invariably riding on the soft side of good,
she appears to have leading claims and is a serious contender.
Connections of the Group 1 Ladbrokes St
Leger Stakes winner Kingston Hill have yet to commit themselves to a
run in Paris, but the scenario they have been craving all season for
their fine colt is a race run on easy ground, so the temptation to go
for the big one must be there if last season’s Racing Post Trophy
winner recovers sufficiently quickly. On the back of his sweeping
late success on Town Moor, the Epsom Derby runner-up - trained by
Roger Varian - was shortened from 18/1 to 10/1 on Betfair and would
be a very interesting runner.
Possibly the most exciting candidate of
all might be Dermot Weld’s Free Eagle - a leading two-year-old of
last season who was absent until reappearing on the Irish
Champion Stakes card at Leopardstown in mid-September,
after an absence of 53 weeks. Free Eagle cruised to victory over
Elleval by a nonchalant seven lengths in the Group 3 KPMG Enterprise
Stakes over 10 furlongs. While the opposition was nowhere near Arc
class, the manner of the High Chaparral colt’s victory was
extremely taking and despite only ever having had three runs in his
life – with his only defeat coming against Australia when odds-on
last year – he looks to have the talent, if not the experience to
warrant a place in the big race.
The likelihood that connections will
favour a bid for the Champion Stakes at Ascot instead has meant that
punters are keen to lay Free Eagle for the Arc and he can still be
matched at up to 38/1 on the exchange, which are no doubt tempting
odds for a horse who could yet prove a world-beater, judged on his
Leopardstown victory at least.