Ok, yes, it is very early days. The
National Hunt season has not even got into full swing yet, but this
is the time of year to find the best value on the most valuable
steeplechase in the world. Here we will look at some of the main
contenders for the big race at Aintree next April to try and point
readers in the right direction for an ante-post wager.
Early favourite
According to Betfair,
the early favourite for the 4 miles 3 ½ furlongs contest, run over
30 fences is Shutthefrontdoor, trained by Jonjo O’Neill. The
seven-year old (who will be eight on the day of the race) shot to the
head of the ante-post market with a decisive win in the Irish Grand
National back in April. Owned by JP McManus – who has already
tasted victory in the race with Don’t Push It back in 2010, the son
of Accordion could be a lively contender.
An indication to the merits of
Shutthefrontdoor may well lie with Holywell – who beat its stable
mate by 3 ¼ lengths at the Cheltenham festival last March, in
receipt of 4lbs. Holywell has since climbed to the head of the
Cheltenham Gold Cup betting after winning at the Aintree meeting, and
the horse’s further improvement this season would only boost the
form and hopes of Shutthefrontdoor.
Major concerns
Last years’ winner, Pineau De Re will
look to buck the trend that goes back to the legendary Red
Rum who was the last to record back-to-back Grand National wins
in 1973-74. A five-length success over Balthazar King, the Dr Richard
Newland trained 11-year old proved too good for the rest of the field
and returned a 25/1 winner. The major concerns for Pineau
De Re are the facts that no horse has retained the National for
31 years, and he will be 12 years old come April – Amberleigh House
is the only 12 year-old to win since 1996 – which must be another
negative.
He will also be in the firm grip of the
handicapper also after such a convincing performance that is likely
to make it a much tougher task. Records are there to be broken
however, but the statistics are surely against Pineau De Re this time
around.
A couple of horses who ran with promise
in the 2014 race that will hope for improvement are Double Seven,
trained in Ireland by Martin Brassil and Paul Nicholls’ Rocky
Creek. Double Seven ran a very creditable third place finish back in
April under the champion jockey AP McCoy, finishing 6 ¼ lengths
behind the winner. Providing that Shutthefrontdoor turns up at
Aintree, McCoy will have a serious headache in deciding of which JP
McManus horse to choose from, but Double Seven has the course form in
the book, which is an obvious plus.
Rocky Creek was touted as a potential
Gold Cup horse in the not too distant past, but those lofty
aspirations have since faded with some mediocre performances at that
level. A fifth-place finish back in April was a very decent effort on
the 8-year olds’ first time over the National fences and a crack at
the 2015 renewal could well be the gelding’s main target this term.
Lively outsider
One to keep an eye on at a fancy price
is the Jim Dreaper trained Goonyella. The seven year-old son of
Presenting narrowly missed the cut for the 2014 race, but will surely
be aimed again in 2015. Some reasonable performances in last years’
Welsh
National and the 2014 Irish National without causing too much
noise could well be a benefit this time around especially if the
ground turns out softer than good.
Summary
It is obviously a very difficult task
to pick the winner of the 2015 Grand National with over seven months
to the race, but hopefully some of these horses could well be picking
up a piece of the prize money come April. There is value to be had at
this time of the year in placing a small stakes wager on the event,
good luck in finding it!