Friday 5 April 2013

7:50 Wolverhampton (6th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

Foley Steels  E.B.F Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f 20y. Nine two-year-olds take part, with two form horses who will feature prominently in the betting. 

Ron Harris has made a superb start to the juvenile campaign with M'Selle winning in some style at Lingfield. Clearly that filly gave them a good line to their string because Go Glamorous was fancied in the betting at Kempton. This daughter of Elnadin cost 20,000euros at the yearling sales. By all accounts she looked every inch a winner on debut, only to be caught on the line. A number of horses showed varied signs of inexperience. The first four home were most professional. It is difficult to assess the form although another of today's runners - Marilyn Marquessa - finished a creditable fourth and was substantially backed on debut when seeming to disappoint.

Marilyn Marquessa ran well at Kempton, leading for most, before tiring in the closing stages. On that running you would have to consider Go Glamorous holds the advantage although Jo Hughes' representative has a low draw, which may encourage them to make a bold front-running show. She could well be the type to touch short odds in running. She will be the consummate professional on this third start. 

Of the debutantes, there are a few talented trainers who feature success with two-year-olds making their racecourse bow. Tom Dascombe is a handler to respect although Shelley's Choice has breeding to suggest a stiffer trip may be more suiting. The betting is probably the best indicator and if priced 7/1 & less she has fair win and place claims. 

David Evans is an astute trainer with a different game plan to most. He trains his two-year-olds to win in the first few months of the season knowing full well that he will struggle when the classier types start their careers. He has debut winners but is notoriously difficult to predict. In general, his debutantes feature a poor strike rate. However, he always manages to unleash one or too hotshots who often win at fancy prices. Limegrove, Majestic Alexander & Nomathemba take their chance. 

Limegrove is a home bred daughter of Captain Gerrard, out of a winning mare who was originally owned and trained by Evans. As with all Evans' debutantes, they can be difficult to judge. It is worth noting that home bred horses are often more backwards than those who go through the sales ring. It is interesting to note this bay filly was entered to run at stakes class, which could well prove a positive.

On paper, Majestic Alexander is an eye catching filly - by first-season sire Bushranger out of a proven mare. This bay filly cost 45,000gns as a foal and half-sister to the talented Majestic Missile. This is a fairly expensive purchase for the stable and they are a canny outfit. If seriously backed, I would expect this youngster to go well.

Nomathemba was a relatively cheap purchase and best watched. The key to the Evans' runners is money. They are tricky to assess but pounds, shilling and pence often tell the story.

Alan McCabe has started the two-year-old season on a high note with his first runner winning when well backed at Southwell. Loma Mor is a bay filly by Auction House and a relatively cheap buy. The stable don't feature the best strike rate with their debutantes and unless strongly fancied best watched. The betting tells the story and if priced 13/2 & less (SP) I would expect this horse to have a fighting chance. However, if weak in the market I would take a watching brief.

Blithe Spirit & Penina are best watched.

Conclusion: Go Glamorous is likely to start a warm favourite after being touched off on debut. The Harris juveniles have been in superb form and this daughter of Elnadin traveled with purpose at Kempton. If fitness was an issue there could be fair improvement to come. However, the form of that race is still untested, which is a concern. It is enough to stop me betting on such a horse, especially at short odds. It wouldn't be a surprise to see her win in tidy fashion but I wouldn't be tempted to bet when the form is not guaranteed. Marilyn Marquessa looks held on their Kempton form. It is worth noting that this filly is drawn in stall one which could prove significant. She led for most of the way last time and I can imagine connections instructing Prince [jockey] to make every yard. She may falter in the home straight but I can see this youngster touching shorter odds in-running. If Go Glamorous doesn't have a smoothest passage there could be a reversal. The betting is the best guide for the debutantes although they will need to be fit and ready to roll. Shelley's Choice & Loma More would have claims if priced 13/2 & less. If weak in the market I would take a watching brief. Limegrove is interesting because Evans gave her a stakes entry. While Majestic Alexander is bred to be a decent juvenile. She was a costly acquisition for the stable. Money talks with Evans and they are not against pulling a surprise or two. I would be tempted to back Marilyn Marquessa at decent odds and lay her in-running in hope she goes clear of the field.