Outsider is a Favourite with Punters

Some of our more eagle-eyed readers may have noticed an interesting website on our blogroll, which has hit the headlines - and a string of bookmakers - this weekend. Join a wave of racing fans who are enjoying www.outsider.co.uk 

This shrewd team of tipsters are by all accounts the antithesis of the favourite backers. How come? Well, unlike the majority of jolly-backers they search high and low for racing tips with a difference - outsiders! In fact they specialise in betting horses at huge odds. Moreover, they often win.

Their simple maxim details a novel philosphy: Long shots worth a second look. 

It's no easy task to find a rag with a fighting chance let alone one which hits the bulls eye. But that's what they have done.

Saturday (31st January) 3:00 Sandown - Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3).

This is what they wrote: ''It's our job to tilt at windmills, so our three against the field this week are, in no particular order, Mr Grey (14/1), El Dancer (14/1) and Invicta Lake (12/1). 

Want to read it straight from the horse's mouth?  Read their full analysis here. 

A truly marvelous day for their followers. 

1st   - Invicta Lake 20/1
2nd   - El Dancer 16/1
4th   - Mr Grey 12/1 

Exacta paid: £290.60 - reason why outsider might well be your favourite read. 

1:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips (28th January) TOTEPLACEPOT MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5)

A Maiden Stakes race over 5f on standard going. Decent prize money on offer with just five runners taking part. In many respects a tricky race. 

One horse is worth a closer look after disappointing last time out when favourite - Tavener. This March foal has been fancied on both starts to date but floundered quite badly. I'm pretty sure Phantom House Stables hold this son of Exceed And Excel in some regard. And considering this bay colt was purchased at Tattersalls' Craven Breeze-Up Sales 2014 for 70,000gns, he's proven ring-rusty and inexperienced. Most juveniles which go through this sales route are forward and ready to race, so connections must be frustrated by those formative outings. 

A slow start at Lingfield created a problem, but inexperience compounded that issue, being niggled along, then slightly short of room, turning into the straight any semblance of hope had been extinguished to the point Graham Gibbons eased down to finish second from last. 

There was good reason to expect a big run that day from Clive Washbourn's horse and a more professional race will be expected today. El Che was ahead of William Jarvis' colt on that occasion, after making a bold bid from the front and she likely to do the same. It could well be the case that Tavener would be better suited by an extra furlong - if only to give more time to find his stride. 

At the odds, I would have to take a watching brief because there isn't too much meat on the bone. However, if this three-year-old has finally got his act together he could quite easily win in style.  

Upstart kicks off Kentucky Derby trials in style

The Kentucky Derby on May 2nd is firmly on the minds of connections of Upstart after his impressive return to action in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream.

Upstart

Upstart is by Flatter out of Party Silks and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November for Rick Violette and Jose Ortiz. He finished six and a half lengths and a nose behind Texas Red and Carpe Diem at Santa Anita but seems to have improved from two to three.

He drew right away from the Godolphin-owned favourite Frosted to win by five and a half lengths on his seasonal debut. He recorded a time of 1m 43.61s to land the $400,000 prize and earn 10 points towards the Kentucky Derby, putting him third overall on the list*. He was cut to 20-1 by bookmakers for the big race behind 10-1 favourite American Pharaoh with Texas Red next best at 12-1 and Dortmund at 16-1.

American Pharaoh

Trainer Bob Baffert won the Kentucky Derby in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet. He has two leading contenders this year with American Pharoah and Dortmund.

American Pharoah was set to start one of the shortest priced favourites at the Breeders’ Cup but was forced to miss the Juvenile due to a bruised foot. He had won his previous two races, the Grade 1 Frontrunner Stakes and Del Mar Futurity. Many pundits felt that he was a certainty for the Juvenile and they may well have been right. Juvenile winner Texas Red had been beaten nearly five lengths by American Pharoah in the Frontrunner.

The son of Pioneerof The Nile swept into the lead early on and was kicked clear to beat Calculator by three and a quarter lengths in a time of 1m 44.95s. He made all the running to beat the same horse by a similar margin in the Futurity on his previous start and remains an exciting prospect.

American Pharoah’s sire was runner-up in the Kentucky Derby in 2009 for Zayat Racing. Their blue and yellow colours would also finish second with Nehro in 2011, beaten by Animal Kingdom. Pioneerof The Nile is a son of 2003 Derby runner-up Empire Maker and a grandson of 1990 Derby winner Unbridled.

Dortmund

Stable companion Dortmund had to work much harder to win the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in a three-way photo. Baffert was winning the race, formerly held at the now defunct Hollywood Park, for a record seventh time.

Dortmund is a son of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown and just got the verdict over Firing Line and Mr Z. Out of Grade 3-placed sprinter Our Josephina, Dortmund is the best of Big Brown’s progeny to date. The most recent winner of the race to go on to glory in a Triple Crown race was Oxbow in 2012 who won the Preakness the following year. Although not as impressive on the racecourse as American Pharoah, Baffert insists that there is little between the two at home.

Texas Red

In winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by six and a half lengths, Texas Red paid a huge compliment to American Pharoah who had beaten him comprehensively in the Frontrunner Stakes. He provided trainer Keith Desormeaux with his first Breeders’ Cup winner, cutting through the field after they had gone a suicidal early pace. Carpe Diem plugged on to take second with Upstart third and Irish raider The Great War back in fourth.

El Kabeir

El Kabeir is a colt by Scat Daddy out of a mare by Unbridled’s Song. He landed the $200,000 Jerome at Aqueduct, the first recognised Derby prep race of 2015.

He had won the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs on his last start as a juvenile for trainer John Terranova. El Kabeir launched his bid three-wide under Chuck Lopez and drew four and three-quarter lengths clear of Nasa and Ostrolenka to earn 10 qualifying points for the Derby. He runs in the colours of Zayat Stables who also have early favourite American Pharoah and Mr Z in contention for the big race.

*The final field for the 141st Kentucky Derby will be determined by the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” eligibility system, as in the previous two seasons.

by Harvey Mayson

4:10 Lingfield Racing Tips (23rd January) 32RED MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 1m 2f on Standard going. Fourteen runners, most lightly raced, three debutantes. A trio of fillies taking on the colts. This intriguing race affords one horse which may be worth a second glance, especially if supported in the betting. 

William Jarvis' Beau Knight wasn't fancied on debut, when finishing fourth over 8.5f at Wolverhampton. 

This son of Sir Percy was sent off a 20/1 shot and certainly needed the experience and most importantly this step up in trip.

Racing in the familiar silks of owner Dr J Walker, this horse hails from a decent family. 

William Jarvis isn't the type of trainer to run horses this time of year unless they have some hope of victory and his youngsters are noteworthy on their second start. 

This bay colt has a plum draw (1) but wouldn't want to be ring-rusty as seen on his debut. However, that experience, and further trip, is likely to inspire connections to make a bold show and perhaps, even, front run. 

The betting is very important to the chances of this January foal. The market will take time to settle and with a number of lightly-raced three-year-olds in the line-up it may be wise to wait for the cream to rise to the top. If weak in the market I would take a watching brief. However, if fancied and features a starting price of 8/1 and less, I'd give this stamina-bred horse decent each-way claims.         

4:40 Chelmsford Racing Tips (22nd January) TOTEPLACEPOT MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m on standard going. Just over a handful of three-year-olds: four geldings and two colts, including a couple of debutantes. 

The last few days I've forwarded a brace of Phillip McBride tip selections and today we will see another in Virtual Reality. The tips finished respectably: runner-up and fourth place. I'm hopeful this bay gelding, a son of Virtual out of a winning mare, can go well after showing promise when fancied on debut at Wolverhampton over 7f. 

This youngster was bred by Cheveley Park Stud but went through the sales ring fetching 15,000gns when sold by Tattersalls December Yearling Sales 2013, purchase by Phillip McBride Racing. 

Virtual Reality ran pretty well on his first start when taking part in a restricted auction stakes in a small field. The form of that race is nothing out of the ordinary but on the other side of the coin this April foal was relatively fancied in the betting [4-1] and looked to need the run when starting slowly and then running on all too late to finish third. 

With just over one month on the sidelines, stepping up in distance, you can be sure this horse will be primed for a big run. 

It is interesting that McBride gives seven-pound apprentice Tom Marquand the ride. This young man has show form for the stable and looks good value for his allowance. I imagine they consider this horse is straightforward. 

It's difficult to tell what price this horse will be but if the price is big enough I'd back this horse each-way. If short, probably best watched although a bold show is expected. 

5:00 Kempton Racing Tips (21st January) 32RED.COM MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+)

A Maiden Fillies Stakes over 7f on standard going. A large field of fourteen, most lightly raced with four debutantes. High Class Equine advised of P J McBride's three-year-olds the other day and we have another second-starter who could well figure. Anarchiste is a daughter of Archipenko out of a winning mare who was trained by Geoff Wragg. Anarchiste, like her mother, is owned and bred by Miss K Rausing. This chestnut filly ran over course and distance a couple of weeks ago when showing promise, finishing fourth, in what may turn out to be a fair race. Certainly, Sir Mark Prescott's winner Molly Dolly is likely to prove a talent. Phillip McBride's juveniles rarely win on debut and primed to go well second start. A wide draw (13) isn't ideal, but over this distance and with that formative experience it is hoped she will sit handy and finish in style. Must have decent each way claims. 

Each-way double:

4:30 Kempton - Littlecote Lady (7/1) 3rd
5:00 Kempton - Anarchiste (8/1) 4th

Grand National 2015 Ante-post preview

The Grand National at Aintree in April remains the highlight of the steeplechasing year and one of the most anticipated events of the whole sporting calendar. Currently, bookmakers are offering 20-1 the field in their ante-post betting lists.

Shutthefrontdoor

The early favourite is last year’s Irish Grand National winner Shutthefrontdoor, owned by JP McManus and trained by Jonjo O’Neill. They enjoyed Aintree triumph with Don’t Push It in 2010 but suffered heartache in 2012 when the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner lost his life in a freak accident whilst attempting the big-race double.

Shutthefrontdoor had always promised to be a useful stayer and finished a close sixth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over four miles. He confirmed the promise of that run when winning at Fairyhouse and began his 2014-15 campaign with a comfortable victory at Carlisle.

O’Neill also has Merry King prominent in the ante-post lists after a fine run in the Hennessy Gold Cup in November. He is another dour stayer but proved disappointing last season after a similarly encouraging effort at Newbury.

Unioniste

Trainer Paul Nicholls ended his Grand National hoodoo with Neptune Collonges in 2012 and he looks to have an ideal candidate with Unioniste.

Like Neptune Collonges, he is a grey gelding racing in the colours of John Hales. He was trained with the Gold Cup in mind last year and although he fell short of that standard he remains a top quality handicapper, especially when the mud is flying.

Nicholls firmly believes that Rocky Creek has the class to win a Grand National and he will have benefitted from his run round in fifth place last season. Stable companion Sam Winner is also prominent in the early lists but may be handicapped out of it after some fine efforts at Grade 1 level.

Monbeg Dude

Last year’s race may be a useful guide in helping to find the 2015 Grand National winner. Pineau De Re is on course to attempt back-to-back victories in the race, a feat last achieved by Red Rum in 1973 and 1974. Runner-up Balthazar King is also being trained specifically for this race along with Alvarado and Monbeg Dude who both ran with credit in 2014.

Monbeg Dude won the Welsh National in 2013 and advertised his claims last year with a fine victory in a Grade 2 chase at Cheltenham. He survived a couple of mistakes to finish seventh in last year’s Grand National and connections will be hoping for softer ground this time.

He caught the eye when running on into fourth place in the Hennessy behind Many Clouds. He again ran well at Chepstow in December when finishing fourth behind Emperors Choice and is sure to be among the leading contenders in April.

Alvarado maintained an incredible sequence for owners Angela and William Rucker when finishing fourth last year. The Rucker family have now had a horse placed in each of the last six Grand Nationals dating back to State Of Play in 2009.

Spring Heeled

Cheltenham festival winner Spring Heeled could also be aimed at Aintree this year. Jim Culloty’s eight-year-old held off the challenge of Cause Of Causes to win the Kim Muir in March. He has since finished fifth in the Gold Cup at Sandown and fourth in the Galway Plate. Culloty may run Spring Heeled over hurdles until the weights are published for Aintree in an effort to protect his handicap mark. Good ground is the preferred surface for the son of Old Vic.

Mendip Express may just have booked his Aintree ticket when running on late to finish second to Oscar Time in the Becher Handicap Chase in December. Harry Fry’s nine-year-old has won four of his eight races under rules with his only disappointment coming when pulled up in the Scottish National last year.

The Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday 11th April 2015 with a TV audience expected to be in advance of 600 million people.

By Harvey Mayson

Australian Open Tennis Promotion: Money Back Special

Throughout the whole of the Australian Open [18th January - 1st February], Winner Sports are offering a fantastic Tennis promotion. 

4:10 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (19th January) CORAL CONNECT MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (TAPETA) (CLASS 5)

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 1m1f103y on Standard going. A small field of just six runners: three gelding against three fillies. It's interesting to see how Grey's Angel fairs on her second start with P J McBride. This grey daughter of Notnowcato out of a multiple-placed mare who enjoyed a trip was a cheap yearling purchase at just 4,000GNS. She was relatively fancied on debut but a slow start made life difficult and by all accounts she needed the race. McBride usually places his juveniles well on their second start and this April foal will appreciate stepping up in distance with talented apprentice Danny Brock in the saddle once more. It wouldn't be a surprise to see this horse backed and that would be a sign of confidence. It is a shame there are only two places for each-way backers but if well supported I would be hopeful Ian Pattle's charge can run well.  

The Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015: It's A Road To Riches

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is one of the biggest and most popular events in the horse racing calendar. This famous steeplechase is held at Prestbury Park run over 3 miles 2 1/2 furlongs with 22 fences to jump. The Cheltenham Festival is a race meeting that excites horse racing fans across the globe and brings with it thousands of Irish supporters who look forward to their annual pilgrimage to challenging the best National Hunt horses. Come the 13th March, 2015 riders, trainers, punters and horses will be chomping at the bit. This could be a good time to bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 

So what are we to make of this year's betting at Paddy Power? Well, looking at the prices it is a pretty open race as far as the betting is concerned. Silviniaco Conti heads the field at 3/1 favourite. Bar Paul Nicholls hope all other horses are priced at double-figure odds with the exception of the Irish-trained Road To Riches. 

This Irish bred son of Gamut - a talented Group 1 winning sire who raced over the Flat for Sir Michael Stoute - has crept under the radar for this year's Gold Cup. 

There's one thing you can guarantee, the talent of this bay gelding, owned by Gigginstown House Stud, is no surprise to Noel Meade. With fifteen races under rules he has won eight times. This bay may have fell on his debut but his performances since have been pretty much unblemished. The last six races saw four wins and two narrow defeats by less than one length. In less than a year this eight-year-old has risen 22lbs in the official handicap and although needing to improve to win at the highest grade this rapid rise to fame could see a bold show when competing at Cheltenham for the first time. A horse who could hold each-way claims and keep those Irish eyes smiling.  

Cheltenham Festival 2015: Can Hurricane Fly Win The Champion Hurdle For A Third Time?

Hurricane Fly demonstrated there is still plenty of life in the old horse yet when beating Jezki in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown on Monday.

The big question now is whether the Willie Mullins-trained horse can create history by regaining the Champion Hurdle crown at Cheltenham for a second time.

The son of Montjeu won the Champion Hurdle for the first time back in 2011 and, after finishing third to Rock On Ruby 12 months later, he turned the tables to win the race for a second time in 2013.

Last season saw Hurricane Fly finish fourth to Jezki before being beaten by the same horse at the Punchestown Festival. 

The back-to-back defeats led to concerns that Hurricane Fly’s best days were behind him, but he has returned this season in fine form.

He beat Jezki at Punchestown first time up before extending his unbeaten record at Leopardstown to nine races with his battling success over the same rival on Monday.

It was a record-breaking 21st Grade One triumph for Hurricane Fly, who will be 11 when he heads to Cheltenham Festival 2015 in March where his Christmas Hurdle-winning stablemate Faugheen will be in opposition.

Only two horses have previously won the Champion Hurdle at that age – Hatton’s Grace in 1951 and Sea Pigeon 30 years later.

His odds for the race were not significantly affected by his win in the Ryanair Hurdle and he remains the fourth favourite for the Champion Hurdle at around 12/1.

But Mullins certainly appears confident that Hurricane Fly retains the same zest which has brought 23 wins from 28 hurdle starts.

"It’s getting to the point with him now where I just let him do the talking," said Mullins the day after the Ryanair Hurdle win. "He’s just a fantastic horse with fantastic ability.

"He’s just a horse with huge ability but also with a tremendous amount of guts."

Hurricane Fly displayed his ability and guts to prevail against Jezki at Leopardstown, but there are two bigger dangers looming come the spring at Cheltenham – Faugheen and The New One.

Unbeaten stablemate Faugheen is the ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle

Mullins, though, still rates Hurricane Fly as his No.1, saying: "To me, he's our top Champion Hurdle horse - he has the ratings. Faugheen looks the one coming up, but Hurricane Fly's doing it.

"I think he's the best anyone has ever trained over jumps. I'll never have another horse like him. He's unique."

Faugheen has been extremely impressive so far this season and jockey Ruby Walsh will have an envious decision to make over who to ride at Cheltenham.

It is possible that could affect Hurricane Fly’s chances of success given Walsh’s strong affiliation with the horse.

The last time someone other than Walsh was aboard Hurricane Fly was back in January 2011 when Paul Townend was in the saddle to win the Irish Champion Hurdle.

Meanwhile, The New One is the best home hope to win the Champion Hurdle after finishing an unlucky third last season after being hampered early on in the race.

He flew past Hurricane Fly up the hill in 2014 and certainly looks primed to play a major role in this season’s renewal.

Mullins felt Hurricane Fly got tired that day and it has to be a concern that the same thing will happen again now that he is a year older.

Yet the spirit and ability remain intact and, if he is there at the last flight, then it would take some horse to outbattle him.

It would also be a wonderful story if Hurricane Fly can make history at Cheltenham Festival 2015.