An EBF Novice Stakes over 7f on good to firm going.
The betting suggests this is a three-horse race although stakes race can always be prone to a freaky big price at times.
However, this looks out of the trio and interesting juveniles they are too. Glitter Girl is a bay daughter of Invincible Spirit. This Irish-bred filly was relatively fancied on debut and showed a good deal of ability to be beaten into fifth by less than four lengths. This Cheveley Park-owned two-year-old was made 5/4f when stepping up a furlong at Thirsk and didn't have too many worries holding the late challenge of outsider Iconic Belle. In truth that wasn't the most competitive of heats but she was very well backed and ran on strongly to the line for a tidy success. Haggas' charge has to shoulder a penalty which may make life harder. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at 4/6f.
Richard Fahey can train a juvenile to win on its first start and Golconda Prince must have been showing up well on the gallops to be heading straight to a novice stakes. The plus side with such a move is that if you hold strong claims the winning opposition often carry a penalty which can, in theory, make such a race type a logical route. This Irish-bred son of Arcano cost 85,000G at the yearling sales. This half-brother to Ribchester will need to be pretty smart to bustle up a winner but Fahey has an excellent strike rate with his debutantes and if strong in the market would be a confident sign.
Mere Brow is interesting. I had my eye on this daughter of Clodovil when she made her debut over 5f at Beverley. Ann Duffield rates this juvenile owned by David Armstrong and I expected this horse to be backed from big odds. Well, I got that completely wrong as a major drift in the market had me feeling apprehensive. Noting that this February foal is stepping up from the minimum trip to 7f clearly details why connections didn't really care what happened on that start because the trip was insufficient. However, Mere Brow ran a cracking race and I was left feeling frustrated that she missed out on a place at huge odds. Considering this youngster was purchased at the yearling sales for £3,000 this bargain buy was inspired. If showing ability over 5f this step up by two furlongs catches the eye. It's a shame this wasn't three places for each-way backers but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Mere Brow win.
An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes over 5f 216y on Standard going. Thirteen two-year-olds take part. Nine raced, four making their debut. A couple of interesting fillies from William Haggas and one from Richard Fahey.
Unless there is something of a surprise this looks out of five horses, at most. The betting is the best guide to Sir Mark Prescott's Cline. This daughter of Pivotal out of a Listed placed mare, she was sent to the breeze-up sales but withdrawn. Very few of the debutantes from Heath House win when priced over 13/2 SP. If strong in the betting, it would be a sign of confidence. Unlikely, in my opinion, but time will tell.
Dismantle has claims but I prefer the trio of hopes.
Symposium, Field Of Stars & Amber Mystique are potentially smart juveniles. All are held in some regard by their respective trainers.
It's interesting if not puzzling why Haggas has entered his two charges considering *Field Of Stars holds an entry to run at Yarmouth on Tuesday. The ground at the seaside course is firm so perhaps that has led to this dilemma. This home bred daughter of Acclamation is out of a winning mare for owners Lael Stables [pictured]. This January foal was made favourite on debut at Nottingham over 5f on good to soft ground. She was very well backed from 4/1 - 7/4 but inexperience and most likely insufficient trip made this juvenile look laboured, plugging on in the closing stages, but never really competitive. This step up in distance and a substantial lay off could see a different horse. From a statistical point of view she is slightly favoured to win than her stablemate. However, Field Of Stars doesn't hold any significant Group entries which can be noted for the stable's additional hope.
Symposium caught the eye on debut. This daughter of Exceed And Excel cost 70,000GNS at the yearling sales and races in the silks of The Royal Ascot Racing Club. This chestnut filly is a good specimen. She was backed at Newbury but started at odds of 9/1 suggesting she held claims but likely to progress markedly from that initial start. The form of that race is respectable. It is encouraging she holds an entry for the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1), one of five juveniles for Sommerville Lodge. As far as flashy entries go, she is not one of the major hopes but still a juvenile of interest.
Last but not least is Richard Fahey's Amber Mystique. This January foal, a daughter of Sakhee is out of a multiple-winning mare who wasn't quite Listed class. She ran well on debut, especially when considering such a tardy start which really put pay to her winning. Continental Lady made a pleasing start to here career, if not a touch disappointing when stepped up in class. What caught my eye is the fact she was one of just three horses the trainer entered for the Convivial Maiden Stakes at York. That is a significant pointer.
Conclusion: It is difficult to separate the three major hopes. I'm intrigued to see if both the Haggas juveniles race or whether there is a late non runner. As noted, Field Of stars holds the edge on stats but Symposium looks the part physically. If Field Of Stars drifted outside 13/2 betting guide it would be a negative in my humble opinion. Amber Mystique should improve a good deal. I would look for an each way bet from the second or third favourite because they should be placed and I'd cross my fingers for a win. If Field of Stars is particularly weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief with that horse. Intriguing race.
*Field Of Stars - NR - Taking the option to run at Yarmouth tomorrow. Makes sense.
Good to see Great Yarmouth back with its racing after the mile straight has been leveled and re-turfed. Let's hope this encourages the high-profile trainers who complained about the surface. Personally, I find it strange ARC found £300,000 to do this work when other courses such as Ripon are much worse. It makes me wonder what they have in mind for this seaside course.
I half intended to go today but with our annual pilgrimage only a couple of weeks away it would be something of an anti climax. Makes me smile to see they start proceedings with a decent two-year-old contest.
Alqubbah is a decent juvenile for Ed Dunlop, one of the better two-year-olds in his stable. This Irish-bred daughter or Arcano was fancied on debut at Newmarket over 6f on good to firm going. She was backed to 7/2 second favourite but seemingly disappointed when trailing behind Mark Johnston's Lumiere, who is a class act. The form of that race has been franked with Sharja Queen and particularly Shadow Hunter, who ran creditably at Listed class when contesting the St Hughes Stakes at Newbury, then triumphant at a similar grade in the Julia Graves Stakes at York. Those initial thoughts that something may have been amiss that day are mostly unfounded. I had my eye on this bay second start and intended to have a decent bet. However, the fact that Hamdan Al Maktoum had Jadaayil priced favourite in the first colours slightly skewed the betting for the lesser fancied in the market. Both juveniles were there on merit and Alqubbah would have gone close if not for being short of room in the closing stages. That was another fine effort and it will take a smart performance to beat Hanagan's mount on the Norfolk coast. Short odds but a worthy favourite.
As always, there are very few easy races these days and two or three opponents are notable.
Aberlady has done nothing wrong in both her starts to date for K Abdullah, trained by Sir Michael Stoute. This home bred daughter of Arch out of the class mare Visit, who won at Group class and was placed multiple times at Group 1, suffered narrow defeats at Newmarket and Kempton, respectively. She was quite well backed on debut when staying on to finish third behind Palenville, who disappointed in the Albany Stakes Group 3 at Royal Ascot. Aberlady was made a 1/2f at Kempton in July but couldn't withstand the late charge of Justice Angel. That filly ran well but defeated next start with an official rating of 77. Connections will be hoping an absence of over fifty days will bring about further improvement. Based on that effort, this bay/brown filly will need to find a couple of lengths to scare the favourite. There is a possibility she was not on song last start or better suited to turf. If available at each way prices there may be a little meat on the bone or a bet to nothing if hitting the frame. I would go with the favourite.
Very interested to see David Lanigan sending Thrilled to make her debut at Yarmouth. He is a difficult trainer to judge and, in general, his debutantes are very hit and miss. They can win when priced at 10/1 & less and a few have won at huge odds. In the good old days at this seaside course he was known to send his better two-year-olds and that aspects in itself gives some confidence. This daughter of Kodiac is out of a multiple-winning mare, who was Listed placed and campaigned at that level although never prevailed. This filly was purchased at the sales by Flaxman Stables Ireland Ltd for 460,000GNS and still in their ownership. They race Duntle, trained by David Watchman, who won at Group 1, an exceptional talented and consistent mare. I know Thrilled has ability and held in high regard by the stable. As with so many debutantes I wouldn't want to jump in at short odds and the bookmakers have this bay filly priced at 4/1. That seems a very skinny price. It may reflect the high regard she is held but it does temper my enthusiasm. Lanigan's debutante record doesn't fill me with confidence and over six furlongs, against decent, fit and ready juveniles, being tardy from the stalls would make this hard work unless a true talent. I have some conflict about this horse with pros and cons. I would take a watching brief but it wouldn't be a surprise to see a sparkling performance.
Roger Varian had a smart winner in Taneen at Newmarket on Saturday, a horse with a string of flashy Group entries. Fourth Way is a daughter of Iffraaj out of a a winning mare who was trained by John Weymes. She was a fair sort who raced at Listed class. This May foal doesn't have any smart entries which may bring slight concerns. The betting is the best guide and if priced 13/2 & less has respectable win and place claims. If weak in the betting I'd take a watching brief.
The last of the interesting juveniles contesting this race for me is Rose Marmara. This home bred daughter of Exceed And Excel is owned by Jaber Abdullah. Richard Fahey is a fine trainer of debutantes. The mare was a sprinter for Mick Channon and won at Listed class and ran at Group level. Has fair win and place claims if fancied in the betting although I'd take a watching brief.
The others are best watched.
Conclusion: A great start for Yarmouth - back on course. I'm excited about this race if not from a betting perspective just to see how a few of these go. Alqubbah sets the standard and will take the beating. She is a talented juvenile who has proven ability and will be fit and primed to run well. The odds are cramped but she is the horse to beat. Aberlady has each way claims although I would take a watching brief. The betting is the best indicator for Fourth Way and Rose Marmara. They would need to be 13/2 & less to register with me. The latter could win outside this betting guide but if both are weak in the betting I'd watch and learn. Thrilled is interesting and I can't wait to see how she fares. Lanigan doesn't strike me as a trainer to win on debut although he can, especially with a talented horse. It is encouraging that he likes to send his better two-year-olds to Yarmouth. That does give more hope than not. A huge price tag and lovely breeding are pointers. This filly is held in high regard at home but can she win on debut? On balance, I would have to take a watching brief at the odds. The favourite is the horse to beat.
A maiden Stakes over 5f on good ground. Just five two year olds: three colts, two fillies, including one horse with race experience.
Tawakkol showed promise on debut, although a beaten favourite. He is trained by Mark Johnston who has made a sparkling start to the season.
This son of Firebreak is out of Listed-raced mare purchased at the yearling sales by Shadwell Estate for £70,000.
Make no mistake this bay colt is a beautiful specimen - with size and scope to progress with racing. Turning tracks are far from ideal for debutantes, especially when racing against horses with experience. Tardy from the stalls, this youngster took strides to gather pace, losing a good few lengths. In search of space, he ran wide on the bend, making headway in the final furlong, but never quite getting on terms. In many respects he would be better over 6f. Johnston's charge is sure to benefit from that first start and with over two weeks off course a more professional display should be seen. It is a sign of confidence that Tawakkol was made favourite on his racecourse bow and notably entered for a stakes race before setting foot on a track. The form of that debut is fair. This stiffer course will suit this resolute galloper who will run to the line. A handsome colt, he ticks a lot of boxes although, ideally, would appreciate further.
Four debutantes make stiff opposition - trainers big and small.
Richard Fahey has started this new flat turf season in a similar vein as Mark Johnston in both numbers of runners and success. Black Magic is a grey son of first-season sire Poet's Voice out of a talented French mare [Centifolia] who won four times including the Criterium De Maisons-Laffitte (Group 2) at two. She raced once at Group 1 the following season but disappointed at the highest level. Mrs H Steel is a loyal owner and this colt was purchased as a yearling by R F Racing for 45,000eur. It is worth noting that this colt has been entered to run in a stakes race, which often pinpoints future winners. The stable have a good strike rate at this course and a healthy points profit [a few big-priced winners]. They feature good win and place statistics with debutantes. Black Magic gives away valuable experience but there are indicators this horse has ability.
John Quinn made a name for himself as a two year old trainer last season with the mighty efforts of The Wow Signal - achieving Group 1 success. Racing Venture was bred by Clive Cox and purchased at the yearling sales for £25,000. This Irish son of first-season sire Lilbourne Lad is out of an unraced mare. I have always considered this course a place where Quinn has started a number of talented horses although his two year old strike rate here is relatively poor. The stable have fair win and place claims with debutantes priced 13/2 & less. With such a small field such betting guides are likely to be skewed and difficult to appreciate.
Two fillies complete the field.
Tom Dascombe has run a couple of fancied two year olds and both have shown good pace before tiring, providing poor displays. Manor House Stables must have been disappointed by those lackluster efforts and it does bring some question to today's debutante Four's Company. This January foal, the eldest in this field, is an Irish-bred daughter of Fast Company out of a winning mare and a relatively cheap yearling purchase at 13,000eur. This stable have fair win and place claims with debutantes priced 7/1 & less (most win at 11/2 & less).
Sharon Watt has a small string of horses and from reviewing Horses in Training 2015 this is her sole two year old. Calpurnia is a daughter of Sleeping Indian out of a limited mare. This home bred looks to have a lot to prove. Major E J Watt [owner/father of trainer] was successful with Bee Brave who won on debut at 50/1 in 2012.
Conclusion: An interesting race where the once-raced Tawakkol will be many punters idea of the winner. This handsome colt will probably make these look lesser by comparison and sure to improve for his debut. This stiffer test will help but and extra furlong may be even better. The horse to beat but at the odds I would have to watch. Black Magic hails from a top two year old stable who can ready a juvenile on their racecourse bow. Being entered for a stakes race is a sign of confidence. Racing Venture & Four's Company hold fair claims if priced at 13/2 & less. However, with a small field this betting guide doesn't help identify weakness. The latter, trained by Tom Dascombe, has sent out a couple of juvenile which done little. I would take a watching brief on this filly. Calpurnia has a lot to prove. A watching brief on this race.
The Knighton Maiden Stakes over 5f on soft going. Six debutantes from a variety of trainers: four colts and two fillies. Richard Hannon won this race last year with Flyball, who was having his second start.
Gin In The Inn is trained by Richard Fahey who has been quiet this early season but a handler who should always be taken seriously. This Irish bred son of Alfred Noble is out of a winning mare who didn't race until three. This bay was purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales for 35,000eur. One for the short list.
Indian Gold cost £3,500 at the yearling sales and half-brother to One Kool Dude. This colt hails from Milton Bradley's stable who usually have limited juveniles.
Mark Johnston can be rather hit and miss with his debutantes but with about 130 juveniles in his string he is a powerhouse. Twisting Hay is a January foal [oldest in the field] sired by Cape Cross out of a winning mare. He cost a whopping 140,000gns. Interesting recruit.
Whether Willytheconqueror is named after his trainer [William Muir] only time will tell. This son of Zodiac was purchased by Muir at Tattersalls' October Sales 2014 for 48,000GNS. I always take note of this stable's early juveniles because they can have ability although they feature a poor strike rate and better on their second start.
Richard Hannon & Hughes team up for Jet Setting who races in the familiar silks of Mrs J Wood. One of two fillies in this field, this Irish daughter of Fast Company was purchased for 7,000euro from Goffs November Foals 2013. A cheap buy for these connections. Hannon can win on debut. The betting may tell the story here.
Wicked Woo is a relatively cheap yearling purchase at 8,000GNS. Jo Hughes' filly is a big price on the exchanges and best watched unless seriously backed.
Conclusion: Early season is a time to watch and learn - reason why I don't say bet on this or that. Gin In The Inn, Jet Setting and Twisting Hay are the most likely winner based on trainer statistics. Richard Fahey does well with his debutantes. Hannon's filly is a cheap purchase while Mark Jonhston's [Twisting Hay] is pretty expensive for this time of season. Wicked Woo and Indian Gold are best watched. Willytheconqueror will most likely benefit from the run. The three major stables look to have the call. Watching brief.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on soft ground. This is a restricted race type which can limit the standard of individuals although this shouldn't be taken as fact. Five runners: two colts and three fillies.
Zephyr Breeze is the only two-year-old with form. This son of Piccolo finished a respectable 4th when competing in the Scottish Brocklesby over course and distance. Considering Noel Wilson's bay raced on Friday it is unlikely he will take this engagement.
Four debutantes hail from talented trainers.
Richard Fahey has been quiet this early part of the season but known as a handler who not only trains a large string of juveniles but someone who can train them to win on their racecourse bow. Powerallied is a son of Camacho out of a twice-winning mare. This bay colt isn't two until the end of the month. He was purchased as a yearling for £16,000 at the Doncaster Silver Sale 2014.The stable have one of the better strike rates from all trainers and deserves respect. It is worth noting that this was one of three horses Fahey entered for the Brocklesby Stakes (Doncaster). This could well prove to be a sign of confidence. On breeding this horse may appreciate further so testing ground may be a plus although soft ground is never good news when betting at short odds unless you know it favours. Obviously with no form, it is best to take a watching brief.
Arize hails from David Brown's stable, who introduced a potentially smart two-year-old to win the Scottish Brocklesby in Tribesman owned by John Fretwell. This bay filly is sired by Approve out of an unraced mare. She was purchased at the yearling sales for 12,000GNS by Peter Onslow (breeder). Owner Mrs Sandra Brown hasn't had a horse in training since 1992. David Brown can train debut winners, especially when priced 13/2 & less. However, with such a small field this betting guide is open to question.
Bryan Smart has his first two-year-old runner of the season. Ayresome Angel is an Irish bred chestnut filly sired by Captain Gerard out of an unraced mare. She was purchased by the trainer as a yearling for 10,000GNS. Smart can win with debutantes although most go better on their second start.
The oldest horse in the field is Baby Ballerina, a February foal. This daughter of Kheleyf is out of a poor mare and purchased by Brian Ellison Racing Ltd for 7,000GNS at the yearling sales. Ellison can train debut winners although compared with the likes of Fahey, Brown & Smart less so. I would take a watching brief.
Conclusion: This race type means most horses here are cheap buys. There are no hard and fast rules, but generally these restricted races feature limited two-year-olds. Zephyr Breeze would hold the aces if racing but that look very unlikely after such a short time since racing over course and distance. The debutantes hail from stables who can win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. On statistics Powerallied is most likely and being entered for the Brocklesby Stakes could well be a significant pointer. However, Arize and Ayresome Angel will be in their best betting guides simply because this is a small field which is rather conflicting. Baby Ballerina is most likely to need the race. The combination of debutantes on soft ground I'd have to take a watching brief.
An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good ground [good to firm in places]. Twelve two-year-olds take part, the majority lightly raced. A fair mix of trainers and few talented juveniles striving for their first win.
Lady Cecil fields Sunrise Star, racing int he silks of Lady Bamford. This daughter of Shamardal, out of a Listed-place mare who finished her career in France, cost 57,000gns at the yearling sales. This good-looking bay filly ran well on debut: keeping on to finish fourth. The form of that contest looks strong with the first and second [Godolphin] going on to run creditably at Royal Ascot, while the third cruised to an effortless victory at Ayr next start. Sunrise Star was quite weak in the betting on her racecourse bow suggesting she would improve for the experience. The stiff finish looks ideal and by all account this is a drop in class. A Moyglare Stakes (Group 1) entry suggests connections have future goals and she will be entered for a more pattern races. The horse to beat.
Dutch Courage looks the chief danger showing promise on debut at Newmarket and returning to headquarters when stepping up to 6f. This daughter of Dutch Art cost 100,000gns as a yearling [£30,000 foal] and one of two juveniles for Richard Fahey from Cheveley Park Stud. She was sent off favourite on her second start but hold-up tactics didn't help as the winner held a fair advantage at the furlong pole, after stealing a lead. This bay filly rallied well in the closing stages and would have won with another half furlong. Those two starts should see her sit handy today although she looks the type to take time to get into full stride. Definitely a horse to respect and another to appreciate this stiffer track.
Ollie Pears is a great trainer who does wonders with his string of two-year-olds. If they are capable of winning, they are placed well and run consistent. Augusta Ada is a strapping daughter of Byron who has shown ability on all three starts to date. The form of her fifth at York has been franked. She travelled with ease at Redcar only to be beaten by a newcomer [Sunny Harbour] who could well be heading for pattern-class races. The third has since won in tidy fashion. Considering she is legible for auction class events, this race type is by all accounts a step up in class. However, that doesn't mean she will not be competitive. It wouldn't be a surprise to see her trade at much shorter odds in-running and to have a fighting chance. Whether this bay filly is quite the class to bustle-up the favourites I would have slight reservations. If touching huge prices on the exchanges, worth a speculative each way punt but may need the favourites to under perform to win.
The intriguingly named Flighty Peaches has been supported on the exchanges and Richard Hughes looks to be a significant jockey booking. This February foal is sired by Footstepsinthesand and cost 32,000eur at the yearling sales. The mare was limited and the stable have few two-year-olds in their string. It is worth noting that this filly was recently entered for a Stakes race, which is a positive. It isn't beyond the realms this youngster has ability although to beat such opposition at the first time of asking looks a tall order. I would take a watching brief.
Of the other horses, Shelley's Choice has shown good pace on both starts before tiring rapidly.
John Quinn does well at this course and has sent a few talented two-year-olds to start their career here. If L'Artiste is substantially backed it would bring added confidence.
The rest are best watched.
Conclusion: I wouldn't look beyond three horses: Sunrise Star, Dutch Courage & Augusta Ada. All should have tasted victory before the end the season. Sunrise Star looks the horse to beat. The form of her Newmarket maiden has been franked and even without improvement must take the beating. Lady Cecil's charge should be primed today and could well lead these a merry dance. She makes a feisty opponent. Dutch Courage is progressing with racing and there shouldn't be any excuses today. In experience cost her dear on both starts to date and if able to sit in a handy position could finish with zeal. A filly who could be much better than we have seen and if touching each way prices looks a solid bet. Augusta Ada will travel well and if betting I would be tempted to try and lay your stake in-running and cross your fingers it is her day. However, I feel the two leading lights may need to under perform for her to win although you should never be afraid of one horse as they have to prove the point. A fair each way bet at speculative odds. Flighty Peaches looks to be fancied in the betting but whether this is sustained throughout the day only time will tell. She would need to be pretty smart to win this on debut and a watching brief.
Buy Your Tickets On-Line @ Redcarracing.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes. Eight two-year-old take part over 5f on good to firm ground. A handful of fillies take on a trio of colts. This is a very restricted race type and not a fully-blown maiden. This is a very important factor especially so with a fair form horse in the field. Six horses have raced once, two debutantes.
Make no mistake Princess Pheeny will take a hell of a lot of beating. Richard Fahey took a good few runners before hitting the winner's mark but his juveniles have been in flying form these last few day. An impressive Stakes success from Eastern Impact and another stylish victory from Peniaphobia at Pontefract [Wednesday]. This daughter of Tagula looks a superb purchase at £6,000. She ran well on debut when finishing second at Newcastle. This February foal was rallying at the line and may well have got back up with another hundred yards. The form of that race has been franked by Lexington Rose [second colours for Middleham Park Racing] won well at Ripon. The fourth wasn't disgraced on her latest run at Doncaster. It is worth noting that Princess Pheeny had been entered to run at Ascot [Wednesday] for a competitive Stakes race. However, connections have their brain switched on and this looks easy pickings by comparison. She is likely to be a big odds on but if a shade of odds against is available on the exchange early doors it should be taken.
Of the others with experience, Sullivan Park needs to improve on her debut run at Beverley. Horses can improve dramatically from their initial start and it didn't help that she bolted to the start. Ian McInnes is a talented trainer but I would take a watching brief.
Lady Montenegro was second string when racing at Ripon, less than a week ago. She needs to do much more and another who doesn't really appeal.
Mrs Karl Burke is one of my favourite two-year-old trainers as this stable know when to strike. Baltic Fire was relatively fancied at Ripon and a prime draw but was hopelessly outpaced. That first start didn't inspire but horses should always be given a second chance and can be transformed. However, the key to this colt's chance is the betting. If priced 13/2 & less he has strong place claims. If weak in the market, I would wait for another day.
Kristen Stubbs has taken over from her mother [Linda] but you can guarantee she will be working hard behind the scenes. Idamante showed good pace on debut before tiring when finish down the field. This bay gelding was a big price that day and could well have needed the race. Stubbs' juveniles are always worthy of respect on their second start even if they look next to hopeless on debut. They have a very good place rate on second start and this one could hit the frame.
Kevin Ryan hasn't started this new season with his customary verve, with most juveniles in need of the run or limited. Lady Captain wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and hampered at the start. This daughter of Captain Rio is a good-looking chestnut and she simply had no luck on her racecourse bow. However, there was promise shown in the way she finished. Connections will be expecting a better performance and it would be a mistake to note she was beaten over sixteen lengths so naturally she has no hope. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bold show although there are question marks which would make me treat careful at relatively short odds. I would take a watching brief but one to fear.
The two debutantes hail from talented trainers. Money could be a significant indicator to both.
Kirtling Belle is a home bred but related to a few decent horses including Beat Seven who was highly campaigned by Gay Kelleway. Keith Dagleish has a good marker in Robynelle who finished a length or so behind Princess Pheeny on debut. It is a slight negative she is a home bred because they can be a little ring rusty on their racecourse bow. The best indicator would be if this youngster was substantially backed.
David O'Meara fields Innocently. The stable don't have the best strike rate on debut and I would rather watch and learn.
Conclusion: Princess Pheeny is the horse to beat and the restrictive nature of this race magnifies her chances. The form of that first start looks solid and the fact connections considered the Ascot Stakes race gives evidence they hold her in some regard and that winning a maiden shouldn't pose a problem. I can see this filly being big odds on by the start of the race. If even money is available at any time it could prove value. Lady Captain is a good-looking juvenile and will improve markedly on that first start. However, she will need to be pretty good to beat the favourite. Idamante could sneak a place and if drifting to decent odds may be of interest. The betting is key for Baltic Fire. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a transformation. If weak in the betting I would leave alone. Kirtling Belle would have claims if substantially backed. Princess Pheeny would be my selection.
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A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 34y on good to firm ground. In many ways this looks like the race where no one turned up! Perhaps that is a little unfair because horses always have the knack of surprising people. Sometimes the worse they look - the better they run. However, most with experience have not achieved a great deal. Although, even in the worst race there has to be a winner. Somewhere.
Richard Fahey is having a slow start to the season and yet to train a two-year-old winner. He must be frustrated by recent events as a number of their juveniles have been in need of the run which isn't the norm with this stable. Fahey has been quoted as saying they have a different type of horse this season and that does bring concerns. Jaga Time drifted markedly in the betting on debut at Southwell. It couldn't have helped that this colt was quoted as being nothing special. This son of Compton Place showed good pace before tiring in the final two furlongs. I don't think it was a strong race and Jaga Time was ridden as though fit, which probably illustrates his limitations. He is still one of the more pacey juveniles in this race if their debut efforts are to be believed. This chestnut colt could travel well but whether he has the ability to win is a matter for debate.
Stan Moore fields two and neither really caught the eye on debut. Cockney Bob cost £500 at the yearling sales and bred to enjoy a trip. This son of Cockney Rebel is a gelding who didn't look like he had come in his coat at Leicester. To be fair that was a decent race with the second and third running well since. He was very slow away from the stalls, which scuppered any real chance. Gannon [jockey] kept pushing and he ran on quite well in the closing stages. I just wonder if he ran in a different race and was flattered. He looked to be comprehensively outpaced for most. It might just be the case he needed the run because Moore's juveniles are much better on their second start. Horses can improve beyond recognition first to second start so it pays to give horses second chances. However, I would have fears he could be left standing if a couple with pace press on and may well touch bigger odds in running.
Aweebitowinker was rousted along when making his debut at Wolverhampton and wasn't helped in the least by running wide on this turning course. This gelding - £1,500 yearling purchase - done well to stay competitive for most but struggled in the final two furlongs. The first two were in a different class. Considering the second has since run at Selling class it sets the level.
Marilyn Marquessa was well backed on debut but disappointed. She then seemed to run a big race at Kempton although that was a difficult contest to judge because the majority of the field needed the experience. I think Hughes youngster made the most of her experience and running the rail. The complexion of that race changed dramatically in the closing stages and if the race had been over an extra half furlong she would have been beaten a good few lengths. Unless the latest run at Wolverhampton was a disappointment, it was no more than a limited effort. The winner and second have some ability but three runs suggest this daughter of Captain Gerrard is limited.
With so many of the form horses looking pretty average punters may look to the debutantes to lead the way.
Mick Quinn doesn't have many two-year-olds in training but Anfield, although a relatively cheap purchase at £5,000, is quite well bred being a half-sister to Dreamy Ciara who showed fair juvenile form with David Evans. The problem is assessing whether she will be fit and ready. I have little data about Quinn as a juvenile trainer so hard to have any strong views other than thinking he isn't really a two-year-old trainer.
George Baker has his first two-year-old runner with Der Blaue Reiter. This chestnut colt cost 20,000euros, which in the context of this race is fair money. The mare has bred a number of hugely expensive yearlings including Elite Dubai who cost over 500,000gns. If this chestnut colt has ability he could well win this race. However, the main stumbling block is that Baker's juveniles have a pretty poor strike rate on debut. It would be folly to say he couldn't win but I would like to see this May foal seriously backed to give greater confidence.
John Ryan's colt by Three Valleys is one of the more interesting although on breeding may benefit from a greater test of stamina. Applejack Lad cost 10,000gns and it's a positive to see Fallon in the saddle. Additionally, he has been entered for a Stakes race, which brings further hope of ability. Such entries can be red herrings or offer little significance but they are often a better sign than not.
Conclusion: This looks a mad race and difficult to assess. Those who have raced have shown no more than limited ability which detracts from their chances but in such an open race it doesn't dictate they cannot win. I wouldn't have the slightest interest in betting. The Stakes entry for Applejack Lad could well be a pointer but I would have to take a watching brief.
A Maiden race over 5f on good ground. Thirteen two-year-olds compete, just about an equal mix of colts & fillies. Four juveniles have one race under their belt. Over the last few years, this race has been targeted by Tim Easterby with some of his best fillies.
Race experience is often a huge advantage with two-year-olds. Yesterday, we witnessed Brian Ellison's Penina winning at Beverley at odds of 40/1 after finishing last on debut. It is a strange factor that horses which look hopeless can make fearsome rivals on their second start.
Ellison fields Claudia Octavia who showed next to no ability at Southwell. To be fair it would be a surprise to see this filly win but stranger things have happened. Best watched.
Blithe Spirit, a daughter of Byron trained by Eric Alston, ran in a fairly competitive race at Wolverhampton on debut. She showed good pace but tired in the closing stages which suggested she was unfit or limited. Alston can train juvenile winners although I associate him with nursery races and would rather watch and learn today.
Mark Johnston has been busy with his juveniles this season and most have looked exceptionally well in their coats and my guess is that they are quite forward. He has a wealth of talent with prestigious owners who have money to spend. The stable have sent out a couple of winners while others have run well. For that reason it was quite surprising to see Princess Tamay so weak in the betting on debut at Kempton. At 15,000euros, this February foal is a cheap buy and probably no world beater. The betting on debut suggested she is either limited or needed the run. This daughter of Tamayuz isn't the biggest and it could well pay to hold fire if wanting to bet early on the exchanges because she could drift in the market. If fancied in the betting it would give more hope but I have reservations about this horse especially with Memory Styx [second] being beaten at Beverley.
*Fuel Injection has raced twice and been fancied on both starts, although disappointing in some respects. This son of Pastoral Pursuits is a good-looking colt with some strength. He was quite fancied in the Brocklesby and showed pace, while a slow start at Redcar saw his jockey bustle him up to join the lead and that all looked a touch too frantic. He has a hell of a lot to prove but if touching huge odds could be worth a speculative punt.
The debutantes come from a number of talented two-year-old trainers, which makes it problematic to narrow down the field. It is best to let the betting settle before taking the plunge.
With a sizable field it will be interesting to see if they split into two groups. Whether a low draw is a plus or a negative is a matter of debate. Rokeby was withdrawn at the sales but a half-brother to Momalorka, who raced at Group class for William Haggis. George Moore doesn't have many talented juveniles but this race has been a starting point to his best in the last few years. Even with a wide draw their could be money for this son of Byron.
Highland Princess is best watched.
The most interesting newcomers include: Withernsea, Ventura Mist, Baltic Fire, Azagal, Spirit Of Goodchild & Muspelheim. At this time [Wednesday, evening] it is next to impossible to gain great influence from the betting exchanges. For that reason I will highlight the major factors of significance.
The betting is key for Spirit Of Goodchild. If priced 13/2 & less SP this colt would have strong win and place claims. If weak in the betting best watched.
Muspelheim hails from Ann Duffield's stable who often go well at Ripon, a course she often sends her juveniles for pre-race experience. Probably best watched but they can spring a surprise.
Mrs Karl Burke is a superb trainer and someone I respect with their two-year-olds. Baltic Fire cost 12,000euros at the yearling sales. The betting is key. If priced 10/1 & less he has fair win and place claims.
Withernsea is likely to go well. Richard Fahey is yet to fire in a juvenile winner but a good few have shown promise and this son of Dark Angel cost 38,000gns at the yearling sales. He is a half-brother to Jamesway and Star Rover who both won on debut, the latter especially talented. The stable can ready a debutante and I would expect this Irish bred to run a big race.
Last but not least are the Tim Easterby representatives: Azagal & Ventura Mist. I would expect the first string to run a big race because the stable have targeted this race over the last few years. Horses such as Cristal Clear, Venture Girl, Cocktail Charlie & Queen's Revenge are just a few of note. The betting is the best guide and the most fancied would get preference.
Conclusion: A difficult race to assess at the time of writing as the betting doesn't give too many pointers. I would let the market settle before jumping in because a good few of these will drift markedly and you don't want to be on the wrong side of things. This may not be the easiest of races to win because a number of these are two-year-old trainers & debutantes can go well. This has been a particularly happy hunting ground for the likes of Tim Easterby. I must admit, I don't like Princess Tamay. If she didn't need the run at Kempton she has something to prove & tough task. The betting will give the best idea and if she is well backed it could indicate marked improvement. However, I would rather watch and learn. The betting is the best indicator for Baltic Fire and Spirit Of Goodchild. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect them to go well, especially the latter. Withernsea appeals and I can see a bold show. The first string of Tim Easterby's pair should be respected because their record in this race is exceptional.
*NR
Other 2yo races:
1:45 Newmarket
