5:10 Yarmouth (23rd April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 34y on good to firm ground. In many ways this looks like the race where no one turned up! Perhaps that is a little unfair because horses always have the knack of surprising people. Sometimes the worse they look - the better they run. However, most with experience have not achieved a great deal. Although, even in the worst race there has to be a winner. Somewhere.

Richard Fahey is having a slow start to the season and yet to train a two-year-old winner. He must be frustrated by recent events as a number of their juveniles have been in need of the run which isn't the norm with this stable. Fahey has been quoted as saying they have a different type of horse this season and that does bring concerns. Jaga Time drifted markedly in the betting on debut at Southwell. It couldn't have helped that this colt was quoted as being nothing special. This son of Compton Place showed good pace before tiring in the final two furlongs. I don't think it was a strong race and Jaga Time was ridden as though fit, which probably illustrates his limitations. He is still one of the more pacey juveniles in this race if their debut efforts are to be believed. This chestnut colt could travel well but whether he has the ability to win is a matter for debate.

Stan Moore fields two and neither really caught the eye on debut. Cockney Bob cost £500 at the yearling sales and bred to enjoy a trip. This son of Cockney Rebel is a gelding who didn't look like he had come in his coat at Leicester. To be fair that was a decent race with the second and third running well since. He was very slow away from the stalls, which scuppered any real chance. Gannon [jockey] kept pushing and he ran on quite well in the closing stages. I just wonder if he ran in a different race and was flattered. He looked to be comprehensively outpaced for most. It might just be the case he needed the run because Moore's juveniles are much better on their second start. Horses can improve beyond recognition first to second start so it pays to give horses second chances. However, I would have fears he could be left standing if a couple with pace press on and may well touch bigger odds in running.

Aweebitowinker was rousted along when making his debut at Wolverhampton and wasn't helped in the least by running wide on this turning course. This gelding - £1,500 yearling purchase - done well to stay competitive for most but struggled in the final two furlongs. The first two were in a different class. Considering the second has since run at Selling class it sets the level. 

Marilyn Marquessa was well backed on debut but disappointed. She then seemed to run a big race at Kempton although that was a difficult contest to judge because the majority of the field needed the experience. I think Hughes youngster made the most of her experience and running the rail. The complexion of that race changed dramatically in the closing stages and if the race had been over an extra half furlong she would have been beaten a good few lengths. Unless the latest run at Wolverhampton was a disappointment, it was no more than a limited effort. The winner and second have some ability but three runs suggest this daughter of Captain Gerrard is limited.

With so many of the form horses looking pretty average punters may look to the debutantes to lead the way.

Mick Quinn doesn't have many two-year-olds in training but Anfield, although a relatively cheap purchase at £5,000, is quite well bred being a half-sister to Dreamy Ciara who showed fair juvenile form with David Evans. The problem is assessing whether she will be fit and ready. I have little data about Quinn as a juvenile trainer so hard to have any strong views other than thinking he isn't really a two-year-old trainer. 

George Baker has his first two-year-old runner with Der Blaue Reiter. This chestnut colt cost 20,000euros, which in the context of this race is fair money. The mare has bred a number of hugely expensive yearlings including Elite Dubai who cost over 500,000gns. If this chestnut colt has ability he could well win this race. However, the main stumbling block is that Baker's juveniles have a pretty poor strike rate on debut. It would be folly to say he couldn't win but I would like to see this May foal seriously backed to give greater confidence.

John Ryan's colt by Three Valleys is one of the more interesting although on breeding may benefit from a greater test of stamina. Applejack Lad cost 10,000gns and it's a positive to see Fallon in the saddle. Additionally, he has been entered for a Stakes race, which brings further hope of ability. Such entries can be red herrings or offer little significance but they are often a better sign than not. 

Conclusion: This looks a mad race and difficult to assess. Those who have raced have shown no more than limited ability which detracts from their chances but in such an open race it doesn't dictate they cannot win. I wouldn't have the slightest interest in betting. The Stakes entry for Applejack Lad could well be a pointer but I would have to take a watching brief. 

2:00 Southwell (9th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f.  Five two-year-olds take part, two colts, three fillies, one with form. 

Kitty Brown is the only horse with experience, finishing second from last at Kempton at the end of March. This daughter of first-season sire Bushranger had little chance after a tardy start but wasn't hard pressed to be competitive thereafter. Evans had three starters that day and it is difficult to know what this little filly can achieve. Substantial improvement is needed to meet a winning level of ability. However, the stable are in good form, their two-year-olds have been hitting the mark and experience is a huge advantage. I would expect this April foal to ping from the stalls but there are questions to answer. If substantially backed it would bring more confidence but probably best watched.

It is never easy assessing debutantes because statistically they have it all to prove. However, one trainer who often bucks the trend is Richard Fahey. Musley Bank Stables have just about the same strike rate with their two-year-old debutantes as they do with those on their second start. This is a remarkable statistic and reason why Jaga Time must be respected. This chestnut son of Compton Place cost £10,000 at the yearling sales. The winning mare was a sprinter although a low-grade handicapper. The most likely winner on statistics but whether you wish to take a relatively short price is open to debate.

Split Rock hails from Mark Johnston's stable. He has had a few juveniles race this season but all have disappointed. This home bred son of Shamardal is out of a Listed-winning mare, who raced at Group level before retiring at three. She was bred to need a trip and beyond her debut raced over one mile. It is sensible to consider this chestnut colt will appreciate a stiffer test of stamina. There is little doubt if this March foal had gone through the sales ring he would have made a lot of money. Mark Johnson has an indifferent record with his debutantes.  They are either easy winners of disappointing losers. The stable usually test the water these first two months of the season and bring out their better early types late April to May. The greatest pointer may be Split Rock racing at Southwell because the stable have a superb win rate at this course. Win or lose, I would have to take a watching brief.

Another trainer who has a great strike rate at this course is Brian Ellison. They field two fillies: Claudia Octavia & Livia Drusilla. 

Brian Ellison owns and trains Claudia Octavia who was a cheap purchase at £3,000. This daughter of Holy Roman Emperor is out of an unraced mare who was bred to need a trip. Whether this minimum distance will be suiting is something of an unknown. 

Livia Drusilla is similarly sired and out of a poor mare who was bred for stamina. Ellison purchased this yearling for 15,000gns but she has since been sold privately. 

The main stumbling block for these two horses is that the stable often struggle to win on debut. Any stable can defy the stats but it takes a certain type of horse and intention. If in need of the race, it would be a surprise.

Conclusion: This is a tricky race to hold strong views. Kitty Brown is likely to make the most of her experience and David Evans is no ones fool. He will make every advantage count and if this little filly has ability she could well set the pace. If backed it would bring greater confidence.  The debutantes are difficult to assess because you can never be sure whether they are fit, ready and have their required distance. Jaga Time ticks the boxes on a statistical point and by far the most likely winner based on trainer credentials. Whether it would be wise to bet at relatively short odds is a matter for debate. Split Rock is well bred and the stable have a good strike rate here. However, Johnston's two-year-old debutantes run so indifferently that I wouldn't dare bet, especially at this time of year,  when he is testing the water. This horse will either win easily or be a big disappointment. Brian Ellison is a talented trainer but he too struggles to win with horses making their racecourse bow. Unless seriously backed I would have to watch. I would play it safe, take a watching brief. 


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