Busy. Busy. Busy. Feel as though I've been stuck on an escalator and some nutter found a go-fast button just to give me grief. Clearly no amount of work is going to stop me detailing more juicy peaches of wonderment.
Quite a big field for this maiden. Laughton ran well enough on debut behind a talent in Wayward Hoof. Kevin Ryan's bay colt, a son of Acclamation, will be primed today and I can confirm this two-year-old is high in the pecking order at Hambleton. A good bet if touching each-ways prices but that does seem a touch optimistic (time will tell).
Spanish City could be a strong challenger from Roger Varian's stable. Their juveniles have been a little disappointing and I'm sure their string isn't as strong as previous years. This chestnut colt is held in high regard. He held an entry for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) & Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). That list brings confidence.
This home bred was meant to run the other week but withdrawn. It is worth noting that day the colt was extremely weak in the betting. That may simply have been due to the word getting out he was to be withdrawn but it is worth considering. Varian's charge will need to be primed to beat Laughton who has valuable race experience. I would certainly watch the betting just in case there is a weakness. Conversely, this may be good reason for bettors to take the earlier prices on Laughton. I respect Spanish City but whether I want to take 2/1 [at time of writing] against Ryan's talent I'm not so sure. Interesting. I'd be looking for an each way bet on Laughton, if available.
6:35 Newcastle - Bryan Smart is a talented trainer and Extortion ran well when finishing second on debut at Redcar. This American bred colt was a cheap foal at 5,000gns, withdrawn as a yearling. This home bred was most likely sent through the sales to gain entry to these limited races. Strong win and place claims if each-way prices are available.
6:50 Sandown - Seven lightly raced or unraced two-year-olds. Couple of interesting horses: Shahbar & Brorocco. The former is trained by Marco Botti for Al Shaqab Racing and an expensive yearling purchase at 320,000gns. He ran a fine race when second on debut at Leicester over 6f. Stepping up to one mile should see improvement. One of the best juveniles at Prestige Place. The downside, there is little meat on the bone at 8/11. Brorocco is trained by Andrew Balding for the Kingsclere Racing Club. This home bred has been going well at home. It should be noted that Balding's two-year-olds just don't seem to be running well, especially the debutantes, many of which have disappointed when relatively fancied in the betting. Their youngsters can go well when priced 10/1 on debut. However, I would have to take a watching brief until the stable hits form.
2:40 Haydock - Laughton - strong each-way claims 5th (disappointed)
6:35 Newcastle - Extortion - strong win and place claims 4/1 2nd (drifted across track)
6:50 Sandown - Shahbar - worth a bet if 1/1 1st
Small ew treble
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on soft ground. This is a restricted race type which can limit the standard of individuals although this shouldn't be taken as fact. Five runners: two colts and three fillies.
Zephyr Breeze is the only two-year-old with form. This son of Piccolo finished a respectable 4th when competing in the Scottish Brocklesby over course and distance. Considering Noel Wilson's bay raced on Friday it is unlikely he will take this engagement.
Four debutantes hail from talented trainers.
Richard Fahey has been quiet this early part of the season but known as a handler who not only trains a large string of juveniles but someone who can train them to win on their racecourse bow. Powerallied is a son of Camacho out of a twice-winning mare. This bay colt isn't two until the end of the month. He was purchased as a yearling for £16,000 at the Doncaster Silver Sale 2014.The stable have one of the better strike rates from all trainers and deserves respect. It is worth noting that this was one of three horses Fahey entered for the Brocklesby Stakes (Doncaster). This could well prove to be a sign of confidence. On breeding this horse may appreciate further so testing ground may be a plus although soft ground is never good news when betting at short odds unless you know it favours. Obviously with no form, it is best to take a watching brief.
Arize hails from David Brown's stable, who introduced a potentially smart two-year-old to win the Scottish Brocklesby in Tribesman owned by John Fretwell. This bay filly is sired by Approve out of an unraced mare. She was purchased at the yearling sales for 12,000GNS by Peter Onslow (breeder). Owner Mrs Sandra Brown hasn't had a horse in training since 1992. David Brown can train debut winners, especially when priced 13/2 & less. However, with such a small field this betting guide is open to question.
Bryan Smart has his first two-year-old runner of the season. Ayresome Angel is an Irish bred chestnut filly sired by Captain Gerard out of an unraced mare. She was purchased by the trainer as a yearling for 10,000GNS. Smart can win with debutantes although most go better on their second start.
The oldest horse in the field is Baby Ballerina, a February foal. This daughter of Kheleyf is out of a poor mare and purchased by Brian Ellison Racing Ltd for 7,000GNS at the yearling sales. Ellison can train debut winners although compared with the likes of Fahey, Brown & Smart less so. I would take a watching brief.
Conclusion: This race type means most horses here are cheap buys. There are no hard and fast rules, but generally these restricted races feature limited two-year-olds. Zephyr Breeze would hold the aces if racing but that look very unlikely after such a short time since racing over course and distance. The debutantes hail from stables who can win with juveniles on their racecourse bow. On statistics Powerallied is most likely and being entered for the Brocklesby Stakes could well be a significant pointer. However, Arize and Ayresome Angel will be in their best betting guides simply because this is a small field which is rather conflicting. Baby Ballerina is most likely to need the race. The combination of debutantes on soft ground I'd have to take a watching brief.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good ground. Twelve two-year-olds, all raced, bar a couple of debutantes. The majority of the field have something to prove, while Northern Water, a leading contender, has to show spirit to negate a wide draw. One filly who needs to put a poor effort behind her is Jacquotte Delahaye. This daughter of Kyllachy is out of the talented dam Mary Read who was Group-placed for the Smart team. This early, chestnut foal [February] was well backed on debut over course and distance when finishing strongly to a talented horse. Next start at Musselburgh saw an equally gutsy display when finishing in determined style at Stakes class behind a couple of horses which have since contended pattern races. Jacquotte Delahaye was fancied when stepping up to 6f for the first time at Ayr where she ran no race. She looked unsettled on that occasion and connections must have considered there was a problem [perhaps sustained an injury] which has seen her sidelined for almost two months. Clearly, it is a concern when horses run a disappointing race and this aspect does bring question marks. It will be interesting to see if Smart's youngster can sit handy because she has been tardy from the stalls. In ways an extra furlong would seem preferable. The betting will be important and I would have worries if this runner was weak in the market. In contrast, backers may be wise to look for much bigger odds in-running, if a tardy start happens once more. There is a fair chance that style will be congruent. This filly's strength is her finish and I would expect her to run on with spirit. By all account this horse has something to prove and for that reason a tentative selection. I'd be tempted to bet in-running at speculative odds [if available] and hope for a strong run to the line.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good ground. Nine two-year-olds take part, predominantly raced colts and fillies. A restricted race based on the price of yearlings purchased by public auctions at ''specific sales''. These race types often favour proven form horses over debutantes. Simply Black was a recent purchase at Tattersall's breeze-up sales for 12,000gns. This brown filly, a daughter of Kheleyf, was fancied to go well on debut at Musselburgh over the minimum trip. Bryan Smart's youngster showed good pace on the outer only tiring in the closing stages. For this grade, that was a promising introduction. The majority of their fancied debutantes go on to win in their formative season and a horse to take seriously today. The stable usually have their horses primed to run a big race on their second start and improvement should be seen. The form of that first race sets a fair standard and if fancied in the betting this March foal has sound each way claims.
Hilary Needler Trophy Conditions Stakes for fillies over 5f on good to firm ground. Eleven two-year-olds take part, all raced. Good prize money with a purse of over £15,000. In truth, this doesn't look the strongest of renewals with a few talents missing from the first declaration stage. This factor is a shame because this race lost its Listed class status a few years back so a good few star fillies are needed to bring this back to the glory days. Even after a quick scan of this field, Lexington Rose caught my eye. A prime draw is a great starting point for this daughter of Captain Gerrard. Bryan Smart is a superb trainer of juveniles and after last season's poor performers he has already illustrated that the stable will have a few youngsters at Royal Ascot. Middleham Park Racing go from strength to strength with their syndicates and with over 400 members they continue to buy well. This bay filly is a good-looking sort: butty, strong through the neck and determined soul. She ran well on debut but excelled on second start at Ripon. With incentives, connections picked up about £15,000 for that win. She attained black type with a creditable fourth in the Marygate Stakes Listed Race on soft ground at York. That form makes most of this opposition look inferior. This March foal has plenty of speed to burn and from a low draw it will take a fair type to press on. Lexington Rose will take the beating although at this level she needs to be at the top of her game. At each way prices she looks a fair bet.
A restricted Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground.
I've got the egg if you've got the spoon. Only kidding, but a good few of these look pretty moderate horses.
My focus will be on Lucy Minaj, trained by Bryan Smart. This bay filly, a daughter of Dylan Thomas, ran well on debut and looked to have a fine chance next time at Redcar. Smart's youngster was a little weak in the betting that day but I still had high hopes of a strong performance and gave this horse as an HCE Gold Tip selection. It ran terrible. After some time on the sidelines, she was simply fired-up and pulled much too hard, ruining any chance of finishing the race. It was the icing on the cake to see Smart's second string win at odds of 66/1. I cannot believe Lucy Minaj isn't better than the winner but today will be the test. The drop back to the minimum trip will help and from a low draw this will be her day for glory if it is ever going to happen. The betting will be key. If backed, or at least starting at relatively short odds, expect a big run. Conversely, if this horse is very weak in the betting, leave well alone.
Bog Snog is a fair bay gelding for this grade. He showed little on debut but I gave him a big shout over course and distance when runner-up to a decent Johnston debutante. He was 66/1 that day and led for most. Linda Stubbs is a talented trainer. In fact, this yard is one of my favourites. This son of Moss Vale drifted alarmingly in the betting at Ayr but ran a superb race, losing narrowly. Make no mistake this horse has a determined attitude which goes a long way in these lowly affairs. Probably priced to chance but the most proven horse in the field and will run well.
Teetotal has shown a glimmer of ability but nothing special. The rest of the opposition look pretty moderate and best watched.
Conclusion: There will be no excuse for Lucy Minaj today. She is the classic first or last brigade. That last performance looked hopeless but I had very good reason for giving her as an HCE Gold Tip. It's just Sod's Law she had a disaster by pulling much too hard. Horses simply cannot win like that and no doubt Smart is trying to remedy that brazen tendency by stepping back in distance. On breeding you would imagine she needs further but you have to trust the trainer knows best. The betting is key and ideally you would want to see her well backed. That would be a sign that last time was an all round disappointment. I have no doubt the stable expected a big run at Redcar. However, these things happen. I would be tempted to bet a few quid at fancy odds on the exchange and hope she is backed. There will be no excuse after this race: win or lose. Rather than betting each way, I would be tempted to have a win bet on Lucy Minaj and Bog Snog. Stubbs' juvenile will go well. The horse to beat. If playing it safe, wait to see if Lucy Minaj is well supported close to the off. That will be the significant pointer. If weak in the betting, keep your cash in your pocket.
A fascinating race.
