Tuesday 23 July 2013

2:00 Catterick (24th July) Daily Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 212y on good to firm ground. Eight juveniles take part: three colts against a handful of fillies. All two-year-olds are raced bar one debutante from a leading stable. 

Augusta Ada sets the standard and a talented daughter of Byron, trained by Ollie Pears. This bay filly has raced four times and done little wrong to date. In fact, a run-of-the-mill maiden should be a straight forward endeavour. All defeats have been against talented juveniles and connection must feel disappointed by their bad luck but bolstered by consistency. This big, strong filly travels well and has a determined spirit. There is always a slight concern that after four tough races she could regress at some point. That's what puts money in the bookmaker's satchels. It is likely she will start odds-on favourite, which is probably price to chance with little meat on the bone, although a stiff test for most of the opposition. The horse to beat.

Mark Johnston has been in decent form with his two-year-olds this season although I have very little confidence in his debutantes who run so indifferently that I would rather take them on than back them. Pure Amber cost 55,000euros - purchased by Mark Johnston Racing. This son of Shamardal, out of a Group-raced mare, is likely to be fancied in the betting. However, the stable's debutantes are either easy winners or poor losers and I would have to take a watching brief.

Of the other form horses Song Of Rowland started his career with Peter Chapple-Hyam, making his debut in a Stakes race at Yarmouth over 6f. He was relatively fancied that day but didn't show a great deal behind the talented, Group-winning Lucky Kristale. This horse was originally in the ownership of Mrs Fitri Hay and cost £50,000 as a yearling. In ways it was a surprising move to see connections opt to go for the Rous Selling Stakes at York. The prize money was good for that race type but it did seem something of a come down and David O'Meara purchased this juvenile for Dr Marwan Koukash for £12,000 in the following auction. In truth, that looked a good buy because a return to York, finishing 6th behind The Grey Gatsby. A horse with an ounce of ability but more likely to be placed than win unless the favourite disappoints. 

Romantic Bliss needs to improve a good deal from her first start when nearer last than first at Haydock over 6f. This daughter of Holy Roman Emperor was a cheap foal and certainly has something to prove. On form this horse has no chance but the stable's two-year-olds can transform from first to second start. The betting is key for this bay filly and if the money comes I would get set for a big run. If priced 13/2 & less she has serious claims.

Sukari Gold was relatively fancied on debut but showed limited ability. Kevin Ryan has a number of talented juveniles in his string and if well backed there could be more to come. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less it would bring greater hope. 

Goadby, Breakable & Meconopsis are best watched.

Conclusion: Augusta Ada deserves to win a maiden and has the ability to do just that without too much fuss. A few talented juveniles have deprived connections of victory and this looks the easiest test so far. A consistent, strong-travelling filly, she will take the beating although probably priced to chance and likely to start odds-on favourite. Pure Amber is best watched. Song Of Rowland has each way claims but looks to have a stiff task against the favourite. An outsider who may go well is Romantic Bliss. That first start didn't give too much crow about. However, this stable like to gamble and if backed has strong win and place claims.