Busy. Busy. Busy. Feel as though I've been stuck on an escalator and some nutter found a go-fast button just to give me grief. Clearly no amount of work is going to stop me detailing more juicy peaches of wonderment.
Quite a big field for this maiden. Laughton ran well enough on debut behind a talent in Wayward Hoof. Kevin Ryan's bay colt, a son of Acclamation, will be primed today and I can confirm this two-year-old is high in the pecking order at Hambleton. A good bet if touching each-ways prices but that does seem a touch optimistic (time will tell).
Spanish City could be a strong challenger from Roger Varian's stable. Their juveniles have been a little disappointing and I'm sure their string isn't as strong as previous years. This chestnut colt is held in high regard. He held an entry for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2), Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) & Middle Park Stakes (Group 1). That list brings confidence.
This home bred was meant to run the other week but withdrawn. It is worth noting that day the colt was extremely weak in the betting. That may simply have been due to the word getting out he was to be withdrawn but it is worth considering. Varian's charge will need to be primed to beat Laughton who has valuable race experience. I would certainly watch the betting just in case there is a weakness. Conversely, this may be good reason for bettors to take the earlier prices on Laughton. I respect Spanish City but whether I want to take 2/1 [at time of writing] against Ryan's talent I'm not so sure. Interesting. I'd be looking for an each way bet on Laughton, if available.
6:35 Newcastle - Bryan Smart is a talented trainer and Extortion ran well when finishing second on debut at Redcar. This American bred colt was a cheap foal at 5,000gns, withdrawn as a yearling. This home bred was most likely sent through the sales to gain entry to these limited races. Strong win and place claims if each-way prices are available.
6:50 Sandown - Seven lightly raced or unraced two-year-olds. Couple of interesting horses: Shahbar & Brorocco. The former is trained by Marco Botti for Al Shaqab Racing and an expensive yearling purchase at 320,000gns. He ran a fine race when second on debut at Leicester over 6f. Stepping up to one mile should see improvement. One of the best juveniles at Prestige Place. The downside, there is little meat on the bone at 8/11. Brorocco is trained by Andrew Balding for the Kingsclere Racing Club. This home bred has been going well at home. It should be noted that Balding's two-year-olds just don't seem to be running well, especially the debutantes, many of which have disappointed when relatively fancied in the betting. Their youngsters can go well when priced 10/1 on debut. However, I would have to take a watching brief until the stable hits form.
2:40 Haydock - Laughton - strong each-way claims 5th (disappointed)
6:35 Newcastle - Extortion - strong win and place claims 4/1 2nd (drifted across track)
6:50 Sandown - Shahbar - worth a bet if 1/1 1st
Small ew treble
Some of our more eagle-eyed readers may have noticed an interesting website on our blogroll, which has hit the headlines - and a string of bookmakers - this weekend. Join a wave of racing fans who are enjoying www.outsider.co.uk
This shrewd team of tipsters are by all accounts the antithesis of the favourite backers. How come? Well, unlike the majority of jolly-backers they search high and low for racing tips with a difference - outsiders! In fact they specialise in betting horses at huge odds. Moreover, they often win.
Their simple maxim details a novel philosphy: Long shots worth a second look.
It's no easy task to find a rag with a fighting chance let alone one which hits the bulls eye. But that's what they have done.
Saturday (31st January) 3:00 Sandown - Betfred Mobile Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3).
This is what they wrote: ''It's our job to tilt at windmills, so our three against the field this week are, in no particular order, Mr Grey (14/1), El Dancer (14/1) and Invicta Lake (12/1).
Want to read it straight from the horse's mouth? Read their full analysis here.
A truly marvelous day for their followers.
1st - Invicta Lake 20/1
2nd - El Dancer 16/1
4th - Mr Grey 12/1
Exacta paid: £290.60 - reason why outsider might well be your favourite read.
The Cantor Fitzgerald Equities National Stakes Listed race over 5f 6y on good ground. Seven two-year-olds takes part, predominantly colts with the exception of a couple of fillies. All winners bar one colt who has been placed on two occasions. Decent prize money on offer with a purse of almost £15,000. On the face of it, not the easiest race to assess with a number of winners & progressive juveniles.
Steventon Star is a talented colt, only deprived on debut by another precocious youngster in the shape of David Elsworth's Justice Day. An effortless victory came at Windsor followed by a gutsy win at York. Hughes is a canny rider and it is to his credit the way he nurtures and builds the confidence of the Hannon youngsters to enjoy their racing. By all accounts that was a strong race. This bay colt, a son of Pastoral Pursuits, sets the standard for others to achieve. His trainer has a brilliant string of juveniles so the stable have their pick of candidates for this contest. A wide draw could be problematic or a blessing. Hughes will probably take a handy position and pounce in his normal, waiting, style. The horse to beat. However, whether I would jump in at short odds is another matter.
A number of the opposition have shown ability and could improve significantly. On the other side of the coin, they need to progress to have a fighting chance.
In true Clive Brittain style, Rizeena is set a challenge by being one of two fillies to take on the colts. That is never an easy task. This daughter of Iffraaj showed great promise on debut in a hot Newmarket maiden. Saeed Manana's bay filly finished as if her tail was on fire! Readers know I fancied her to win at Ascot, and so she did in ready fashion. I have little doubt the runner-up is held in high regard by Hannon's. Things haven't gone right for Oriel. Rizeena could well be a talented juvenile but needs to improve. At this grade, it is difficult to be confident she is up to this class. A horse I will be rooting for but taking a watching brief.
Eastern Impact was set what looked to be a stiff task when competing at Stakes class on debut. Richard Fahey has a vast string of two-year-olds and the stable must have fancied their chances that day because this colt was well backed. An impressive victory was seen, which gives hope of better things to come. However, in retrospect, the form of that race was quite weak, more like a maiden [if that makes sense] and improvement is needed. Such a stylish win gives opportunity but more is needed.
Roger Varian is a true talent and although a little slow with the juveniles this season they are a force to be reckoned. Andhesontherun looked inexperienced on debut at Leicester and although winning I don't believe the stable thought this son of Captain Rio would lead the way as he needed the run. However, with Capitulate disappointing, that race fell apart and this son of a Group-raced mare picked up the pieces to beat Atlantic Affair. Considering Rizeena left Mark Johnston's horse trailing he has much to prove. On the plus side, this February foal should leave that form well behind. Another two-year-old who needs substantial improvement but not one to judge on that basic form.
*Zalzilah was fancied to run well on debut - he had been entered to run at Stakes class before he made his debut - but failed miserably, albeit behind a decent horse in Extortionist. James Tate must have been smiling at Beverely because I have little doubt they went there with view to winning. Make no mistake that was an impressive victory. Look back to fifth placed Lily Rules [who was beaten by Eastern Impact] and the third & fourth have both run well since. An easy six-length victory over those capable horses puts this bay colt pretty high in the pecking order for the better juveniles seen this season. I would take this horse seriously. He is priced at pretty fancy odds on the exchanges this evening [Wednesday]. If drifting to speculative odds, he could be worth an each way bet.
The other filly in this field is *Autumns Blush, trained by Jeremy Noseda. This daughter of Kheleyf finished behind Rizeena in that hot Newmarket maiden but I was left with the impression that was a day to learn rather than win. The money came for her at Yarmouth where she was seriously backed. That may have been a small race and it is perhaps too easy to consider it was nothing more that a run-of-the-mill event. Time may tell that was the case but it is worth noting that the word was out before that race this bay filly was already going to Royal Ascot. That confidence probably tells the story that ample improvement had been noted from first to second start. Fallon done little more than push her out with hands and heels. It is worth noting that the second horse - Bush Beauty - is held in high regard by Clive Brittain and the third looks up to winning a maiden.
Urban Dreamer needs to improve after two fair efforts but this will be a much tougher test.
Conclusion: A fascinating race simply for the fact that a number of winners take each other on but feature such varied profiles with a mix of achievements to date. The proven horse is Steventon Star. A wide draw may be a slight concern but he is a decent horse who could well show these what a winning is all about. However, the price looks very short with a number of unexposed, winning, juveniles with something to prove. Zalzilah may just slip under the radar after a poor debut. Many a punter may consider his win at Beverley was simply due to limited opposition. I don't think that was the case and time may tell this is a class horse. If touching speculative odds, he could be a worth a small each way bet. Rizeena is progressive and should finish this race with purpose, which is no bad move at Sandown. I'm a big fan of Clive Brittain and I will be cheering her home. Eastern Impact & to a greater extent Hesontherun need to improve for their first victory. They are likely to do just that but it is difficult to assess such horses and these concerns always make me tread careful, especially at relatively short odds. Autumns Blush is another unknown quantity. She is a strong sort and hails from a trainer who knows what it takes to win a race of this nature. I wouldn't be tempted to bet in this race and just enjoy the spectacle. Steventon Star sets the standard. If looking for value, Zalzilah may be the surprise package at fancy odds.
*NR
A Maiden over 5f 6y on soft ground. A few talents.
Dominate, trained by Richard Hannon, ran in a pretty hot race on debut at Windsor. After being squeezed out at the start, this son of Assertive had a tall order on his hooves but made good progress to chase a tidy winner in King Dragon. There was certainly enough promise shown that day to suggest a win will be coming sooner rather than later. Dropping back to 5f brings slight concern but this bay colt is bred to be fast. The mare was unbeaten in three starts for the stable so they know the family.
Red Explorer is expected to run a big race. An expensive breeze-up purchase at 130,000gns, this bay colt by Henrythenavigator was made favourite on debut. The third has since won and the form, although nothing out of the ordinary, is fair. With experience over this minimum trip, tested on soft ground, these factors are a great starting point. The owner's juveniles often improve a good deal for their initial start and I would expect an big run. This is Michael Hills' only ride at the track. (I know people often think that old chestnut is a waste of breath. However, I never say anything for the fun of it and know for a fact Hills doesn't waste his time.) I would be surprised if this youngster is not in the first two.
Ron Harris is a canny old stick and I have little doubt he rates Starlight Angel. The only filly in the field, this daughter of Dark Angel, was pretty straight on her debut at Chester and done little wrong when chasing home Botanic Garden. In truth, that was an ordinary performance but creditable on that idiosyncratic course. After failing to show a great deal in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) this lower grade is more appealing. A tough call against the colts but a horse who can win in her two-year-old campaign.
The betting suggests Colourist will improve for the run. Worthy of note if substantially backed.
Mullit faced a stiff test when making his debut at Stakes class. He was relatively fancied but after a slow start was outpaced. That initial entry could well prove to be significant and money talks with this stable. If backed it would bring more confidence.
Hats Off has left me scratching my head after a couple of horrendous performances. This son of Royal Applause is a good-looking colt. Best has stated this juveniles has shown a lot more ability at home than on course and after a lengthy break could show a glimmer of promise. It is interesting connections take this route rather than a nursery because he would probably be much better off in the weights. I am still sticking to my guns that this colt will win a race. If available at huge odds on the exchanges, he may be worth a few quid.
Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. A few of these have enough ability to win a race so it may not be a straightforward task for Dominate although a leading chance. Red Explorer will run a big race. If available at each way prices (unlikely) he is worth a bet. I would be surprised if Hills youngster isn't in the first two. Starlight Angel is a fair sort but may struggle with one or two of the colts. Hats Off is a difficult horse to assess. The type to follow over a cliff? However, at huge odds he may be a surprise package. He will either be first or last! Thanks for supporting High Class Equine (HCE).
