A Maiden Stakes over 5f 193y on soft going. A big field of two-year-olds - a few of note if not hot reputations. I won't give an in-depth review as it will take all night. As usual, I'll highlight the major protagonists.
Very interested in Fatherly Friend, trained by Karl Burke. This horse is held in high regard. An American bred son of Scat Daddy out of an unraced mare. He is an expensive purchase at $140,000, racing in the familiar silks of Hubert John Strecker. Well fancied on debut, he was too inexperienced to do himself justice but ran on with vigour. After a break of fifty-plus days, a big performance is expected. The stumbling block could be the draw. Stall twelve doesn't lift the spirits and a sluggish start would bring concerns. I would feel much more confident if boxed nearer the rail. If making that debut count this colt will, hopefully, sit in a decent position and by all accounts take some beating.
My Two Scoops is no slouch and found a couple of tough races to compete on his first two starts. Ann Duffiled's charge is a good-looking juvenile who travels well. This step back in trip could see him run to the line. Draw two is a blessing and could hit a place at fair odds.
Few trainers excel like Richard Fahey on debut. As I have said before, he is one of very few handlers who feature a similar win and place rate with his two-year-olds on their first and second start, respectively. To most readers this may seem something and nothing. Take it from me, it's not, it is quite a remarkable feat. What this tells you is that, in general, his debutantes are fit and primed. Nimr may not have any flashy entries but certainly features a price tag which catches the eye. This son of Shamardal is out of a ten-times winning mare who won at Listed class and Group placed with a highest official rating of 110. This half-brother to Gothic cost 200,000GNS at the yearling sales and now in the ownership of Al Shaqab Racing. He is well drawn and fancied in the betting.
Worlds His Oyster was fancied on his debut at York but failed to shine when last of eleven. It's a strange factor but sometimes the worse a horse looks on debut the better they seem to go on their second start. Any horse can disappoint on their first start. John Quinn knows his two-year-olds and this son Pivotal out of a winning mare originally held an Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry. This bay colt was purchased at the breeze-up sales for £110,000. The betting suggested a big run on debut. On my statistics this horse has similar win and place claims which suggests it will either win or be unplaced. Intriguing.
Siege Of Boston is a very rare two-year-old runner for Deborah Sanderson, although she has done well with a few juveniles over the years. This son of Starspangledbanner out of a low-class but multiple-winning mare was backed on debut at Nottingham but never involved. He cost £70,000 at the yearling sales. That disappointment - combined with a small trainer - will see this chestnut colt start at big odds today. There could be more to come.
Conclusion: A competitive race for Carlisle and a few trainers/connections expecting a win. Fatherly Friend has been on my radar and I would fancy this one with confidence if not for a wide draw. That stall position may not make a jot of difference but it does bring concerns. It would put me off betting at relatively short odds and I'd need 5/1 or so to take a risk. The horse to beat and good each way claims if getting into a decent position. Nimr is interesting and well owned, trained and cost a good few quid. Certainly a horse that could go well. Worlds His Oyster & Siege Of Boston could go well but difficult to judge. On balance I'd have a few quid each way on fatherly Friend and hold my breath and hoping the wide draw doesn't make for problems.
Slightly irritated by yesterday's tip Solstalla. A wide draw was to blame and caught behind a wall of horses was a hammer blow. She ran on well at the line but all too late. Jarvis' filly would have gone close and almost certain to have been placed with an ounce of luck.
A few cool tips today:
2:30 Carlisle - Shootingsta
A fairly competitive heat for a northern maiden. Shootingsta looked to have disappointed last start but that has turned out to be a hot maiden with the winner and second reaching for the stars. Bryan Smarts' colt was a touch keen last time out and ease in the ground didn't suit. He isn't the strongest-looking horse which slightly tempers my enthusiasm but on the over side of the coin is held in some regard by the trainer. This son of Fast Company is up to winning races and this firm ground should help. I'd expect a bold front-running display, so a fair chance of cashing your chips mid-race if you wish. Must have fair each way claims at respectable odds.
6:25 Kempton - Commandaria, Light Fantastic & Cascades
I know what you are thinking...he's gone for a good few here. And so I have. These three juveniles feature highly on my statistical analysis to run big races. All have very good place claims and it wouldn't surprise me if they make a decent Trifecta.
A Median Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good ground. Nine two-year-olds take part: three colts, two geldings and four fillies. Five juveniles have race experience. Free Entry ran a big race on debut at Beverley over the minimum trip, when out battled by Cloud Rest, who won a Stakes race next start. This Irish-bred daughter of Approve is out of a winning mare and trained by James Tate. There was a lot to like about that debut performance and these restricted race types often favour horses with experience. The betting details Effusive as the major opponent. This chestnut filly is sired by Starspangledbanner out of a Listed-race mare, a home bred for Cheveley Park Stud, trained by William Haggas.
Summary: A fair race for this grade. It will take a good one to beat Free Entry. At odds of about even money I wouldn't be tempted although can't see her being denied. If a couple of the unraced are strongly supported - drifting to odds of 7/4 or so (unlikely) - I'd have a bet.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 193y on good to firm ground. Ten two-year-olds take part: most lightly raced with the exception of two debutantes. No Leaf Clover ran a fine race on debut - looking every inch a winner - when losing narrowly at Newcastle three weeks ago. Ollie Pears is a superb trainer from a small string of juveniles. Charles Wentworth has owned a good few horses in his time and this son of Kodiac cost a pretty sum when selling at the yearling sales for 65,000euros. This bay colt moved well on debut and connections must have been anticipating a big run. The stable will be hoping to go one better today and it will take a fair horse to lower his colours.
Kristen Stubbs has not sent out many youngsters this season but Too Elusive showed promise on debut after being totally outpaced. This gelding hasn't been seen since early June and may be a little ring rusty but sure to appreciate this step up in distance. The stable feature very good place claims with two-year-olds on their second start so may hit the frame.
The main danger looks to come from Our Channel who was a breeze up purchase for £33,000. William Haggas has been in great form with his debutantes this term, especially those who have been fancied in the betting. In deed, this is a rare visitor for the Newmarket handler, being the first two-year-old to race at this course for over five years.
Conclusion: No Leaf Clover will be wiser for his debut and will take the beating. Our Channel will need to be well away from the stalls on this turning course. Haggas' juveniles have been in good form and has each way claims. Too Elusive is another who could go well at a price and would be a tentative each way selection.
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f on good ground. Nine two-year-olds take part, predominantly raced colts and fillies. A restricted race based on the price of yearlings purchased by public auctions at ''specific sales''. These race types often favour proven form horses over debutantes. Simply Black was a recent purchase at Tattersall's breeze-up sales for 12,000gns. This brown filly, a daughter of Kheleyf, was fancied to go well on debut at Musselburgh over the minimum trip. Bryan Smart's youngster showed good pace on the outer only tiring in the closing stages. For this grade, that was a promising introduction. The majority of their fancied debutantes go on to win in their formative season and a horse to take seriously today. The stable usually have their horses primed to run a big race on their second start and improvement should be seen. The form of that first race sets a fair standard and if fancied in the betting this March foal has sound each way claims.
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 7f 200y on good to soft ground.
Ten juveniles compete in this second division. All colts bar one filly. One debutante from Mark Johnston's stable. A mixed bag of two-year-olds on show with fair form horses with a few who would struggle running down hill in an egg and spoon race.
*Orions Hero was sent off favourite for a York maiden but failed miserably. Whether that was due to soft ground is a matter of opinion. However, an expensive yearling purchase at 120,000euros is the kind of price Fahey would expect a win. That was nearly the case when this son of Oasis Dream stepped up in distance at Ayr. It was slightly strange why he went off at such a big price but it didn't hinder a great performance. As it happened, the Sharon Watt debutante got up on the line winning at 50/1. Bee Brave was sold to an American buyer which suggests this race had something going for it. In truth, it was probably no more than an average contest but good enough to suggest Mrs H Steel's youngster has a fighting chance today.
Elusive Thought is a home bred for Mrs Fitri Hay. This gelding was quite well backed on debut at Ripon but showed little ability. May have a glimmer of hope if backed to 13/2 & less but that looks unlikely.
French Revolution, Gambino & Tobacco need to sprout wings and make up the numbers.
Alkcama is a relatively cheap purchase for John Weymes. This bay gelding, a son of Camacho, wasn't far behind the winner at Newcastle but that looked a pretty ordinary race. I hate to say it, but I'm not the biggest fan of the Weyme's two-year-olds as they seem very difficult to judge. Best watched.
Mark Tompkins is represented by Topamichi who was last on debut at Yarmouth. The stable have a poor strike rate with juveniles making their racecourse bow and they can be transformed on their second start. The betting is the best guide. If backed to 13/2 & less would have outstanding win and place claims.
Miss Mocca showed good pace on debut at Bath when second to easy winner Alcando. The only filly in the field, this bay is going to need to be a game sort to show the boys how it's done. She looks to have good pace and if sustaining that over this extra furlong could be of interest. That wasn't the strongest race on debut but Ian Wood is a canny trainer and his juveniles deserve respect on its second start.
Another trainer worth his salt with juveniles on their second start is Alan Swinbank. Clarandale could be a dark horse of the race because he cost a hefty sum at 130,000gns. This bay colt by Holy Roman Emperor was quite well backed on debut but always struggling. The Swinbank two-year-olds can be rather hit and miss on their first start but worthy of note next time out. There is a chance the soft ground didn't suit on that day, which could be a valid excuse. I can see this horse being backed and a fair each way prospect.
Last but not least is Mark Johnston's debutante Bravo Ragazzo. The betting is the best guide although I find the stable's juveniles next to impossible to assess on their first run. They are either easy winners or big disappointments. Best watched.
Conclusion: A funny old race in ways. Orions Hero sets the standard and could go well although at short odds may not give much value and vulnerable to a horse with a fraction of ability. A few of these making their second start are worthy of consideration, especially if backed. Miss Mocca & Topamichi would be decent each way bets if featuring a 13/2 & less starting price. I would be tempted to take a punt on Alan Swinbank's Clarandale. You have to take a leap of faith but connections paid a significant sum for this breeze-up purchase and it would be a surprise to find it is misplaced. This stable often go very well with juveniles on their second start and could hit the frame at a price.
*NR
