1:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (1st Nov) 32RED.COM MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 5f 20y on standard going. Quite an intriguing race from this ten-strong field. 

Gary Moore doesn't have the biggest string of two-year-olds but a talented trainer.  Rapid Ranger has been relatively fancied in the betting on both starts. This son of Kyllachy has been beaten eleven lengths on debut at Windsor but put in his place by two talented juveniles, especially the winner. This bay colt raced keenly last time out at Kempton when second to Mr. Black. That was a fair effort. From a low draw, he could lead and take some pegging back. Always a slight concern this January foal will be too keen and tire in the closing stages.

Kings Academy is owned and trained by Paul Cole. This son of Mayson cost £32,000 when purchased at the yearling sales. Interesting to note this chestnut colt started his racing career in Chantilly, France. He was fancied in the betting priced 9/2. Leading until the closing furlong. Perhaps the 6f was a stride too far. The prize money was a touch shy of £10,000. Cole wouldn't have sent this colt across the channel for a day out. Christophe Soumillon was booked to ride. I would keep an eye on the betting with this juvenile and if fancied has very good win claims. Strangely, past juveniles fitting this profile, which I can't go into, have very similar win and place claims suggesting they either win or unplaced. 

Phillip McBride's runner, Supreme Power, is another juvenile that makes interests. This son of Power was a relatively cheap foal but this stable does well with their two-year-olds. He finished behind Rapid Ranger last time. A reason why today this February foal will be odds of 14/1. However, I bet on this horse last time out and fancied him to run well. A slow start didn't fill me with glee and then hampered in the straight put pay to any hope of winning. A wide draw doesn't inspire confidence and if starting slowly it will be an uphill struggle. On the positive front, I'm pretty sure the stable expected a big run that day and with the favourite seemingly holding this youngster, the price may hold some value. 

Mr. Pocket is another runner fielded by Paul Cole. This son of Acclamation has been a difficult horse to follow and must bring bad memories for a few punters who have kept the faith. Certainly, the loss at 1/4f would have seen them crestfallen. With an official rating of 80 this bay colt has ability although you may need deep pockets and faith to continue betting on this horse. 

Jason Ward started the season with some hope when Mont Cinq finished third in the Brocklesby Stakes. This bonny colt is still trying to gain that elusive first win. This bay colt has plenty of pace and nearly won at big odds last time out at Newcastle with inspired tactics. However, an official rating of just  70 [has been as low as 62] and seven defeats suggests something will beat him.

Conclusion: An intriguing race. Four horses have some hope. Mr. pocket may have claims although he does have the knack of being beaten which makes me wonder if he relishes a battle. Kings Academy is definitely worth a glance in the betting. If strong in the market he could be the better of the Cole pair. If priced over 7/1 I would suggest Mr. Pocket is the more fancied. If betting, I would go for a straight win because I get a feeling Kings Academy will either win or be unplaced. Rapid Ranger looks to have a great chance based on his last run and beating Supreme Power most punters will scratch McBride's juvenile in the process. Moore's juvenile has a lot of pace, good draw and has a decent chance but I wouldn't be so quick to ignore Supreme Power. McBride's charge was expected to go well that day. A slow start, hampered, just meant it wasn't his day. Clearly, he needs to start well and it is a concern to have such a wide draw. It does put me off a little because you really don't want to run wide or fail to get to the lead if that is what connections choose. I'm not even sure if he has the pace to sit handy. Interesting, horse who may go well at a price. Funny old race in ways with  afew live chances. 
  

The Worst Place for Gamblers to Commit at Crime

Underage gamblers beware. 

A New York man hit the headlines winning an undisclosed slot machine jackpot whilst playing at the Sands Casino Resort Bethlehem in Pennsylvania. 

However, things turned sour when he forfeited his winnings and was then charged with underage gambling.

Most US states prohibit players under 21. Needless to say, Pennsylvania law requires a person to be over 21 to gamble in casinos, much to the annoyance of Rong Lin of Fresh Meadows, New York, who was aged just 20.

Mr Lin tried to get past the state laws by using fake identification to enter the casino, playing the slots. Although the amount of his winnings have not been revealed, if it had been less than $1,200 he would likely have been able to collect the money and leave without much fuss. However, above that threshold a casino worker is automatically summoned to deal with an Internal Revenue Service form related to paying taxes on winnings, and a player must provide identification during the process.

Apparently, at that stage a casino security manager then became suspicious over the validity of his identification leading to a state trooper being called out and confirming Mr Lin had been using false identification.

Commenting on the whole incident, Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board spokesman Doug Harbach, said: “We say all the time, casinos have got to be the worst place to go to commit a crime. It’s just not a risk people should be taking. They report this kind of thing right away. For these individuals to think they’re going to get away with something like this, they’re wrong! And there’s criminal charges attached to it and you could end up with a record.”

Levin Gamble: ''Living in Cloud Cuckoo Land''

Big gambles come and go but not many are described by the horse trainer as ''Cloud cuckoo land''. But that's what County Kildare handler Johnny Levin said of his Dundalk runners which had been hammered in the betting.

Twitter was on fire with speculation that a plot was afoot as his six runners at Dundalk has been substantially backed. 

However, Levin was quick to respond on Facebook:  "We're on 16 winners for the year so far which represents a record year for the stable but anybody thinking we'll end the night on 22 winners is living in cloud cuckoo land. Don't be fooled by your bookmaker! "I'm updating early today from the sales in Newmarket as I'm informed my runners have moved in price and feel it's important to update the betting public as to my thoughts."

The trainer wrote: "Deeds Not Words has done nothing but disappoint this year. He's off an ordinary mark in an ordinary race and I gave up fancying him with any confidence four runs back."

Notable gambles of recent times

Byrne's treble 

Bookmakers reported losses of £1M after three horses were backed from double-figure odds at Roscommon.  

Sheena West plunge goes west

Her four runners were seriously backed in favourites but only one beat a horse home.

Barney Curley Knockout Blow

Legendary punter has executed many high-profile gambles including the Yellow Sam coup in 2014. Bookmakers lost £2M.  

Staking Strategy & Discipline

I wonder what Staking Strategy & Discipline mean to you as someone who bets? It is an interesting subject although you may consider if you are not one of the 2% of gamblers who make their betting pay does it matter? 

I would suggest it does. Why? Because no one wakes up one morning to find they are a professional gambler. They make a transition which takes time. It might be a stepping stone to understanding and proficiency. 

This article was inspired by one of my blogging friends, Jerry Banks. His website Jerry's Best Bets featured a post forwarded by Peter Sackville. I don't know Peter but you may enjoy his informative read by clicking on the link above. 

One thing to note is that whether you bet for fun or for a living any gambler can have a run of losers. It is these times which often make or break you because if emotion takes over it can be oh so easy to chase losses. [Not me]

His article emphasises the importance of strike rate and how this matter. This relates to value. If your bet doesn't have value then you are doomed to lose whatever your win rate. 

A great staking plan can ''Skyrocket your betting bank and help protect it.''

Sackville goes on to question the level stake approach insisting that to make a return you have to be very good at choosing your selections and picking winners. 

He details that instead of the level stake approach that it is much more beneficial to bet the cumulative approach of 5% of your betting bank or 2.5% each-way. This is arbitrary and you may bet 3% or even less depending for example.  

What is the advantage of this style of staking? It's simple. It means you bet less money when you are losing and your bank goes down but you bet more when you hit those winning streaks.  

This is a simple format which used long term can help. 

From my perspective, this information details one of the major points of success or failure and that is discipline. 

How many punters do you see in the betting shops and they have no idea whether they are winning or losing? A tenner in the slots, an each-way bet here, across-the-card double there, trap 6 at Romford... 

It is important to keep a record of your bets. Considering the main part of my betting is done via the exchanges it is simple to see. It is something that shouldn't take any consideration if you just have an account and use it without betting from your pocket. [You can but keep a record]

If you lose continuously - stop betting. If you can't stop betting...find professional help or at very least talk to someone. 

I have found discipline is very important to my betting success. In fact, I can't get across how much difference it makes. I have many guidelines to help me make the right decisions rather than acting on the spur of the moment. That often leads to dire decisions. I've made plenty of bad decisions my time even with being careful. But these valuable lessons, if learned, actually help you to find the right road to success. 

This is one reason why I suggest if you are interested in betting professionally you never bet for fun. Why? Because you are likely to have many bad habits when you bet for fun. If these spill over into your professional bets you face an uphill struggle. That's why from a psychological point of view you should look at positive reinforcement. Keep following good procedures until they become habitual. 

It is the reason why I often go to a race meeting and don't bet. In fact, it is usually the case that I don't have anything of interest on a course because I bet selectively and within my niche which is two-year-old racing. 

The thing to remember is that your approach or discipline is most likely to be different to mine, your mates or perhaps everyone else on planet earth. It doesn't matter. Because it should match your personality, understanding and goals. It is your discipline.

The difficult part of discipline is the appreciation that there will be times when a guideline shouldn't be followed. Because, as with all aspects of life, very few things are black or white...but an endless misty grey. 

It is important to learn and you hone your skills. However, I would suggest that you take baby steps rather than giants leaps and don't push too hard because it can destroy your knowledge and confidence. 

Confidence is something that grows with experience from a foundation of discipline.    

The Gambler's Gambler...

Gamblers. A special breed. Those punters who went that step further to take on the bookmakers at their own game. Read this collection of articles which detail individuals which not only won big time but in the process made a name for themselves. Be inspired by these gamblers. Learn what made them tick, gave them an edge and become their specialty. It's intriguing to note how each favourite bets contrasted greatly so they all found their niche. Fascinating reading. 

John Aspinall   
Harry Findlay 
Dave Nevison 
Alan Woods 
Barney Curley
Freddie Williams 
J P McManus 
Paul Cooper 
Sydney Harris 
Phill Bull 
Jack Ramsden 
Alex Bird 
The Shadow
Clive Holt 
The Computer Group
The Art Of Manliness: I'm A Professional Gambler
The Hidden Cost Of Being A Pro Gambler  
Becoming A Professional Gambler
Kid Delicious: Pool Hustler
Random Pro Gambler: My Story  
A Tale Of A Pro Gambler 
Meet The 9 - 5 Gamblers  
The Opportunities Of A Professional Gambler: Eddie Murray  

Who is your favourite gambler of all time? Detail your thoughts by leaving a comment. 

Horse Racing Systems and Handicapping Basics

If you've been handicapping horse races and trying to make a profit for a while, you realize just how difficult that might be.

You also have probably figured out that you need a method or system that works and that you can repeat. When you're betting on horses and don't have any regular steps that lead to good winners, every bet is a shot in the dark.

Like any other endeavor in life, winning at the horses requires certain basic steps and you can never get away from them. It doesn't matter what system you use, it has to start with being able to accurately estimate the frequency or probability of a horse winning the race. Unless you know how often a horse with certain qualifications would win, how do you know what it is worth?

Some people think the key is to compare the odds of each horse to the field. For instance, they look at a horse that is fourth in the betting order and at 6-1 and think that its a good bet because the other three horses that are lower in odds aren't that much better than that one. They think that it has a chance to win and at 6-1 they think it is a good value.

The problem is, their thinking is murky at best because those terms are all subjective. For instance, what is a good chance? Does that mean one in five? Does it mean one out of three? We're dealing with finite numbers so thinking in terms of good and bad, maybe and might are not going to be good enough to make a profit in the long run. That is the difference between a pro and a part time or recreational horse player.

The irony of it is that it is not an advanced concept that you would think only a pro would know or use. It is a very basic factor of finding profitable bets or investments in life. The whole equation comes down to this. Risk < reward = profit. In plain English, when the risk is less than the reward profitable situations occur. Those profitable situations, however, can be accurately identified if you use math and not words like might probably and maybe.

Therefore, one of the very basics of horse racing handicapping is to think in mathematical terms. You don't count your winnings with words, you use numbers to quantify your results. In order to have positive results to quantify you need to start thinking in mathematical terms. It may sound incredibly simple but it is one key to successful horse racing handicapping you can't overlook.

Author: Bill Peterson




Article Source: http://www.articlesbase.com/horse-racing-articles/horse-racing-systems-and-handicapping-basics-4105775.html
About the Author

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/sharpshooter2.html and get the truth. Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

2:00 Pontefract Racing Tips (3rd Oct) RACINGUK.COM/BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 1m 2f 6y on good to soft going. 

Nine two-year-old runners. Seven with race experience. Not the most inspiring of a contest in some respects but I have my eye on one of the debutantes. Physicist is trained by Paul Cole and owned and bred by Mrs. Fitri Hay. This bay colt is a son of Galileo is out of a poor race mare, placed but never winning. The betting is the guide for this juvenile and the reason for making a wager. If 8/1 & SP has fair each-way claims but if weak in the betting best watched. 

2:50 Windsor - 

Sir Michael Stoute has been firing in a few winners and Adamant looks to hold every chance of winning this maiden after making his debut as the second string when finishing a fourth of ten behind stablemate Elucidation. To be fair, this grey colt didn't inspire confidence on that first start and backers today will be fixing their hopes on the reasoning this son of Dalakhani was in need of the race. This breeze up purchase cost 130,000E and races in the silks of Highclere Thoroughbred Racing. 

I would take a watching brief.