Monday 6 May 2013

2:20 Yarmouth (7th May) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 43y on good to firm ground. Just the four runners, one colt against three fillies, two with form. Not the easiest race to assess although I will highlight one horse, which is unlikely to win at the first time of asking. My Little Friend is trained by Mark Tompkins and home bred for the The Sakal Family. This chestnut son of Pastoral Pursuit is the only colt in the field which should be an advantage against the girls. In fact, Tompkins does well at this seaside course. However, his two-year-olds have a poor strike rate on debut and most improve a good deal for the experience. I would take a watching brief.

Free Horse Racing Tips  

Autumns Blush was the first juvenile to run for Jeremy Noseda this season. This daughter of Kheleyf was introduced at Newmarket and the form of that event has been franked with the sixth, seventh and twelfth winning since and others going well with place efforts. This bay filly ran a fair race without ever threatening the leaders. Noseda has an impressive strike rate with his fancied juveniles on their second start and this looks the horse to beat. 

Alan Bailey is a canny trainer. Mimi Luke ran in the same race as Autumns Blush on debut but held little chance after a slow start. This American bred filly didn't seem to go through the sales ring which strikes me as unusual. She was a huge price next start at Windsor and seemingly ran a storming race when finishing third behind hot shot Steventon Star (1/10f). The winner cruised past the opposition and bound for Royal Ascot. The second horse, Culdaff, is a good-looking colt but needed the race. The rest of the field look pretty poor and that makes assessing the form difficult. In fairness to Mimi Luke, she is an athletic type who showed good pace, a willing, determined juvenile. 

Clive Brittain is one of my favourite trainers and Yarmouth has always held a place in his heart. He has introduced a number of talented two-year-olds here over the years. Bush Beauty is by first-season sire Bushranger out of a poor mare. This February foal cost 30,000gns at the sales. In general, Brittain's debutantes have a poor strike rate unless fancied in the betting. The problem here is that with such a small field the betting is unlikely to give conclusive evidence either way. If priced over 13/2 I would consider today is not the day. 

Conclusion: A small field is never the easiest starting point but the betting is likely to decide whether this is basically a two-horse race. I wouldn't expect My Little Friend to win and Bush Beauty is likely to struggle unless priced 13/2 & less and then a tricky juvenile to assess. Mimi Luke was beaten by Autumns Blush on debut at Newmarket. However, she had such a poor start it may be foolish to simply consider Noseda's horse a straightforward winner. The difficulty is trying to assess what Bailey's filly achieved when third at Windsor. Time may tell that was a great performance or pretty ordinary. Autumns Blush is sure to improve and would be my selection. 

I would like to say how sorry I am to hear that Reg Hollinshead passed away today [Monday]. He was a great trainer and someone I had followed and respected.