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Monday, 20 September 2010

Monday's Thoughts

2:10 Hamilton
A watching race but notable how short Tom Dascombe's Present Danger is in the betting for this debut over 6f(5y). A 200,000gns yearling and recent entrant for a Stakes race suggest this youngster has ability. The only runner and ride for Kingscote at the track are all additional positives.

2:30 Kempton
Zing Wing makes a quick return after running at the weekend. A capable two-year-old with enough ability to win a maiden. This filly by Hawk Wing has a tendency to pull and should have the pace to sit in a handy position. The quick appearance is a slight concern. Magical Flower could well be a realistic alternative after a creditable run at Kempton last time, which looks a decent event. This filly by Oasis Dream was backed to run well that day and led to the 7f marker but tired in the last furlong. This step back in distance should be more suitable and has fair place claims. 15/2 3rd

Bet: 2:30 Kempton - 1PTEW (15/2) 3rd

Comment: ' Quite a competitive heat and Magical Flower had every chance in the final furlong but couldn't make an impact on the durable Zing Wing.'

3:30 Kempton
An intriguing event with Flodden and Terdaad re-opposing after running in the Convivial Maiden at York. The latter trained by Saeed Bin Suroor went off favourite that day but disappointed and is on something of a recovery mission. In recent weeks this son of Shamardal has been entered to run in a number of Stakes races, suggesting connections think winning a maiden is a formality. Once again. this Godolphin runner has been very well backed and clearly expectations are high for a big run.

Flodden has run a number of creditable races and holds Terdaad on their running at York. It will be fascinating to see how this colt by Henny Hughes fares today. The betting suggests that Terdaad will make amends for the York loss, although that point still has to be proven. Flodden has ability but looks a galloper rather than a speed merchant and it is possible on this turning track he may be out paced if it is run at a fair pace. The fact that he has experience on side negates that point however it is worth keeping in mind. Cole's two-year-old is a sturdy sort and has finished behind a number of talented juveniles. It is difficult to fully assess his form and Flodden looks to be an average horse with little acceleration and may benefit being ridden prominently - if he has the pace to hold such a position. Cole's youngster deserves to win a race and looks a safe each-way bet if price allows. Time may tell that at 4/1 or so he is a cracking win bet - but I would be careful on that front as it would seem Terdaad is expected to win.

Today's races:
2:10 Hamilton
2:20 Leicester
2:30 Kempton
3:00 Kempton
3:30 Kempton
4:20 Leicester
4:50 Leicester