Sunday 19 September 2010

Sunday's Thoughts

3:10 Hamilton

A rare jockey booking to see Hughes in the saddle riding Channon's Galloping Queen. This filly by Refuse To Bend has been consistent and held in fair regard by the stable: going to Ireland for a valuable Listed race earlier in the year and more recently entered to run at Group level. The step up to a mile has benefited this two-year-old, who has struggled to win because she is an out and out galloper, often demoted to placed efforts by the finishing sprint of fleet-footed rivals. Galloping Queen has the most proven form and Channon has a good strike rate with his juveniles at the course over the last five years (30%). This consistent filly deserves a win but with so many placed efforts may be vulnerable at relatively short odds.

Tarantella Lady has an element of ability although not the best looking horse, with a pronounced if not rather awkward running action. Moore has taken his time with this daughter of Noverre and comes here with a fair place hope and chance of a win. She was beaten a number of lengths at Doncaster last time but that was a strong maiden and may have needed the run after a three-month absence. In a weakish maiden Tarantella Lady could run well although a little difficult to assess and ideally need to be a speculative price. She has the running action of a horse that would love soft conditions and the more rain the better for her. An interesting runner at a price. 4th

Mark Johnston has had a poor season with his two-year-olds and the most confident factor about State Opera is that this colt by Shamardal is running at Hamilton, a course the trainer has a healthy 33% strike rate in recent years. At a relatively short price I would be tempted to take on this youngster simply because Johnston has had plenty of short priced two-year-olds founder on debut.

Interesting to see Hanagan riding for Bethell. Spey Song went off a 100/1 outside on debut at York but it is notable that connections went for the Convivial Maiden (worth over £16,000 to the winner). Owners Clarendon Thoroughbred Racing have been long established with Bethell and if backed this 31,000gns buy may be significant.

In conclusion, Galloping Queen sets the standard but may be vulnerable, however, the other juveniles have to prove they have ability, which means she is has a favourite's chance. Tarantella Lady is a fair each-way chance at a price and would be a tentative selection. You never know what to expect from the Johnston two-year-olds and State Opera may be best watched today.

Today's races:
2:10 Hamilton
3:10 Hamilton