- Juveniles have a fair win rate on debut but very few priced over 7/1.
- In recent years, over 40% of runners have been priced 13/2 & less on debut.
- Youngsters have a healthy win and place rate on their second start when fancied
- Early season juveniles often improve with racing
- In many ways his juveniles seemed under priced
Thursday, 17 March 2011
Five-Shot Bullet Points - Kevin Ryan
Kevin Ryan trains one of the bigger two-year-old strings and often fancied to win races. What are the keys to success?
Wednesday, 16 March 2011
Paul Nicholls - Day Two
16th March 2011
Al Ferof gets us off to a flyer!
As you could see from yesterday's television pictures I was over the moon to begin the meeting with a winner. It was wonderful for all of us connected with Al Ferof especially his owner John Hales and I was genuinely delighted for Ruby Walsh receiving his just reward for all the hard work that he has put in to be back riding at Cheltenham. For Ruby to then go on and record a treble on the day with two others for Willie Mullins including Hurricane Fly in The Champion Hurdle was even more remarkable. A victory in the very first race takes the pressure off for the rest of the week and we have plenty of ammunition left for the next three days.
16th March 2011
Day 2 - Cheltenham 2011 Wednesday - Champion Chase Day
Following our early success with Al Ferof yesterday, we will be trying our best to follow up with at least another success on day two of The 2011 Cheltenham Festival. Wednesday's card kicks off with the four mile National Hunt Chase for the amateur riders. We then move on to three more Grade 1 contests in the shape of The Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, The RSA Novices Chase over three miles and then the feature sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase for the top two mile chasers. Next come two Grade 3 races, The Coral Cup for the older handicappers and then the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle for the four year olds. Finally, we have The Weatherbys Champion Bumper, a National Hunt Flat Race which in recent years has thrown up some impressive winners. We have plenty of runners competing today and I will be providing a full run down and appraisal of my Cheltenham runners daily in my Racing Column exclusive to Betfair www.betfair.com/paulnicholls
Al Ferof gets us off to a flyer!
As you could see from yesterday's television pictures I was over the moon to begin the meeting with a winner. It was wonderful for all of us connected with Al Ferof especially his owner John Hales and I was genuinely delighted for Ruby Walsh receiving his just reward for all the hard work that he has put in to be back riding at Cheltenham. For Ruby to then go on and record a treble on the day with two others for Willie Mullins including Hurricane Fly in The Champion Hurdle was even more remarkable. A victory in the very first race takes the pressure off for the rest of the week and we have plenty of ammunition left for the next three days.
16th March 2011
Day 2 - Cheltenham 2011 Wednesday - Champion Chase Day
Following our early success with Al Ferof yesterday, we will be trying our best to follow up with at least another success on day two of The 2011 Cheltenham Festival. Wednesday's card kicks off with the four mile National Hunt Chase for the amateur riders. We then move on to three more Grade 1 contests in the shape of The Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle, The RSA Novices Chase over three miles and then the feature sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase for the top two mile chasers. Next come two Grade 3 races, The Coral Cup for the older handicappers and then the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle for the four year olds. Finally, we have The Weatherbys Champion Bumper, a National Hunt Flat Race which in recent years has thrown up some impressive winners. We have plenty of runners competing today and I will be providing a full run down and appraisal of my Cheltenham runners daily in my Racing Column exclusive to Betfair www.betfair.com/paulnicholls
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Cheltenham Live
1:30 Cheltenham
Ruby Back in Style with 10/1 winner
Al Ferof starts a brilliant day for Ruby Walsh winning the Supreme Novices. Nicholls' grey ran on well up the hill, playing his cards late in the day to finish with zeal. An emotional win for Mr J Hales with thoughts of One Man.
Ruby said: 'They were going to quick for me, but he ran on well and pinged the last.'
Full result: (click)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:05 Cheltenham
Captain Chris Wins the Arkle
Philip Hobbs made the right decision with Captain Chris and won well at 6/1 ridden by Richard Johnson. This big, powerful gelding finished strongly for owner Graham Whateley.
Whateley said: 'He is a great horse. I loved every moment.'
Johnson said: 'The ground is important to him. I am hoping his confidence will grow. He is very special.'
Full result (click)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:40 Cheltenham
Bensalem King of The Stewart Family Chase
A fast run race and brilliant win for Bensalem after a grinding battle against Carole's Legacy. In a race of many fallers, Alan King's 8yo took the race with Robert Thornton under a hard drive.
Owner Marsh said: 'Alan and the team have done a great job. It is terrifying to watch your horse in a race but very exciting.'
Alan King: 'A big thank you to the whole team. He was seriously ill and some vets said to put him down. He is just a bloody good horse. It is a very special day.'
Full result (click)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:20 Cheltenham
Hurricane Flies the Flag for Ireland
The headline race of the day: The Stan James Champion Hurdle.Hurricane Fly had missed his chances before but today saw a sparkling display to give Walsh his second win at 11/4f. Mullins' horse was deadly today travelling well in a slowly run race and then had to battle against the tough Peddler's Cross, who was game in defeat. What would have happened if Binocular had been here? He would have needed to be at his best. That fight awaits another day. Hurricane Fly has won!
Mullins: 'He done everything right all year. People wonder if a Montjeu could win round here but it wasn't a problem. The whole focus was to get him here. Ruby knows him backwards. He has been unlucky with injury. He is like a ruber ball to sit on. He has never done full speed work at home as he tries to do too much.'
Full result (click)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4:00 Cheltenham
Sizing Australia has Glenfarclas in his Compass
The marathon cross country was won by Sizing Australia in a battle against Garde Champretre. So often a supporting act to the consistent runner-up Henry De Bromhead's gelding ridden by Andrew Lynch. Maljimar looked to be cruising in the home straight touching odds on but tired over the last. A great result for owner Alan Potts.
De Bromhead: 'He didn't have the best of luck last year but I told Andrew to ride him as he thought.'
Lynch: 'We were unlucky last year. Henry said just keep out of trouble. I'm delighted my lad picked up over the last.'
Full result (click)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4:40 Cheltenham
Quevega: As Easy as 1.2.3
Three in a row for Quevega trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh in the Mares' Hurdle at 5/6f by ten lengths. This was a magnificent display as this filly cruised to an easy win. In fact, it could only be described as impressive. Sparky May - the potential fairytale winner - led in the home straight but Walsh had no doubts about victory'
Mullins: 'Ruby loves her and rode her with so much confidence. This race was made for her. Why go for something else when you may be beaten. She may go to Aintree next. I imagine she will be back here next year.'
Walsh: 'She's a super mare. She has so much ability, a perfect breed.'
Full result (click)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5:15 Cheltenham
Murphy Leaves Cheltenham Smiling
A great finish to proceedings with Divers grinding out a strong finish beating Quantitiveeasing, who looked to have a major hope with A McCoy. Lee was patient and got a big jump at the last and responded generously at odds of 10/1.
Lee: 'The horse is trained well. A huge credit for the horse. It was a rough race. It was like being in a car crash. He fenced beautifully. In the end I hit the front too soon. The horse had to want it - and he did.'
Full result (click)
Ruby Back in Style with 10/1 winner
Al Ferof starts a brilliant day for Ruby Walsh winning the Supreme Novices. Nicholls' grey ran on well up the hill, playing his cards late in the day to finish with zeal. An emotional win for Mr J Hales with thoughts of One Man.
Ruby said: 'They were going to quick for me, but he ran on well and pinged the last.'
Full result: (click)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:05 Cheltenham
Captain Chris Wins the Arkle
Philip Hobbs made the right decision with Captain Chris and won well at 6/1 ridden by Richard Johnson. This big, powerful gelding finished strongly for owner Graham Whateley.
Whateley said: 'He is a great horse. I loved every moment.'
Johnson said: 'The ground is important to him. I am hoping his confidence will grow. He is very special.'
Full result (click)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2:40 Cheltenham
Bensalem King of The Stewart Family Chase
A fast run race and brilliant win for Bensalem after a grinding battle against Carole's Legacy. In a race of many fallers, Alan King's 8yo took the race with Robert Thornton under a hard drive.
Owner Marsh said: 'Alan and the team have done a great job. It is terrifying to watch your horse in a race but very exciting.'
Alan King: 'A big thank you to the whole team. He was seriously ill and some vets said to put him down. He is just a bloody good horse. It is a very special day.'
Full result (click)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3:20 Cheltenham
Hurricane Flies the Flag for Ireland
The headline race of the day: The Stan James Champion Hurdle.Hurricane Fly had missed his chances before but today saw a sparkling display to give Walsh his second win at 11/4f. Mullins' horse was deadly today travelling well in a slowly run race and then had to battle against the tough Peddler's Cross, who was game in defeat. What would have happened if Binocular had been here? He would have needed to be at his best. That fight awaits another day. Hurricane Fly has won!
Mullins: 'He done everything right all year. People wonder if a Montjeu could win round here but it wasn't a problem. The whole focus was to get him here. Ruby knows him backwards. He has been unlucky with injury. He is like a ruber ball to sit on. He has never done full speed work at home as he tries to do too much.'
Full result (click)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4:00 Cheltenham
Sizing Australia has Glenfarclas in his Compass
The marathon cross country was won by Sizing Australia in a battle against Garde Champretre. So often a supporting act to the consistent runner-up Henry De Bromhead's gelding ridden by Andrew Lynch. Maljimar looked to be cruising in the home straight touching odds on but tired over the last. A great result for owner Alan Potts.
De Bromhead: 'He didn't have the best of luck last year but I told Andrew to ride him as he thought.'
Lynch: 'We were unlucky last year. Henry said just keep out of trouble. I'm delighted my lad picked up over the last.'
Full result (click)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4:40 Cheltenham
Quevega: As Easy as 1.2.3
Three in a row for Quevega trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh in the Mares' Hurdle at 5/6f by ten lengths. This was a magnificent display as this filly cruised to an easy win. In fact, it could only be described as impressive. Sparky May - the potential fairytale winner - led in the home straight but Walsh had no doubts about victory'
Mullins: 'Ruby loves her and rode her with so much confidence. This race was made for her. Why go for something else when you may be beaten. She may go to Aintree next. I imagine she will be back here next year.'
Walsh: 'She's a super mare. She has so much ability, a perfect breed.'
Full result (click)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5:15 Cheltenham
Murphy Leaves Cheltenham Smiling
A great finish to proceedings with Divers grinding out a strong finish beating Quantitiveeasing, who looked to have a major hope with A McCoy. Lee was patient and got a big jump at the last and responded generously at odds of 10/1.
Lee: 'The horse is trained well. A huge credit for the horse. It was a rough race. It was like being in a car crash. He fenced beautifully. In the end I hit the front too soon. The horse had to want it - and he did.'
Full result (click)
Sunday, 13 March 2011
Mr Anonymous... (What are you saying...)
Update - read the latter part of the post...
I have been smiling since I looked at my comments (and posted this one quick march). Mr Anonymous left me a comment, which I have to share with you. This is what my comedy partner said:
hi jason are you the one in the middle with the fetching sweep over the eye hair style.;)i expect neil is out of the shot picking up the semi colon you dropped from your texts ealier !
This is my reply to Mr Anonymous and my defence of Neil, who I feel may be filing a liable case after this...
lol
I must admit your comment made me smile so much. That is just my type of humour. Brilliant. Sadly, that isn't me with the hair sweep over the eye. I agree it is a fetching, man-about-town look. However, I am so much better looking...lol. Yes, Neil, well, where do I start...he was out of the picture (like you say) and by the end of the shoot he had a bucket full of commas, missing full stops, and semi colons aplenty. I told him to go and look for some brackets as we need a shelf to put all of our comedy awards.
:-)
Update: As you may have gathered, the HCE banner wasn't our very own High Class Equine Fanclub. I found the photo on the internet. I have tracked down the article or whatever it is (because I cannot read the language) and pasted it below. We have the opportunity to learn something here...lol. Well, I think the language is German. I will post it below. This is the handy part. I have uploaded a translator widget so it may be possible to actually read what the presentation of the HCE banner meant. :-) (HAVE FUN)
I have been smiling since I looked at my comments (and posted this one quick march). Mr Anonymous left me a comment, which I have to share with you. This is what my comedy partner said:
hi jason are you the one in the middle with the fetching sweep over the eye hair style.;)i expect neil is out of the shot picking up the semi colon you dropped from your texts ealier !
I particularly like the comment about Neil, who you may have noted in my comments regarding the Racing Ahead post.
This is my reply to Mr Anonymous and my defence of Neil, who I feel may be filing a liable case after this...
lol
I must admit your comment made me smile so much. That is just my type of humour. Brilliant. Sadly, that isn't me with the hair sweep over the eye. I agree it is a fetching, man-about-town look. However, I am so much better looking...lol. Yes, Neil, well, where do I start...he was out of the picture (like you say) and by the end of the shoot he had a bucket full of commas, missing full stops, and semi colons aplenty. I told him to go and look for some brackets as we need a shelf to put all of our comedy awards.
:-)
Update: As you may have gathered, the HCE banner wasn't our very own High Class Equine Fanclub. I found the photo on the internet. I have tracked down the article or whatever it is (because I cannot read the language) and pasted it below. We have the opportunity to learn something here...lol. Well, I think the language is German. I will post it below. This is the handy part. I have uploaded a translator widget so it may be possible to actually read what the presentation of the HCE banner meant. :-) (HAVE FUN)
Wayward Lad - Juicy Winner!
As you may know, I am a big follower of all the blogs in our community and I noted a juicy winner from Wayward Lad. What I like about Ian's style is that he not only has an opinion but pinpoints strengths and weakness of individual horses in such a succinct manner. This is what he had to say:
Sunday, 13 March 2011
One selection, one winner - at 14/1 (oh yes!)
Yesterday's blog selection HOLMWOOD LEGEND came home at a whopping price of 14/1. Those who followed my advice were on at those odds and not the 11/1 given as Vic Chandler pays "best odds guaranteed".
I read the race perfect as HOLMWOOD LEGEND wsa in front from halfway, jumping superb, and when the fav Peplum was the only one chasing I knew it was in the bag. Why? Read what I said about Peplum yesterday - "...he does not get a yard further than 2m4f and the stiff uphill finish at Sandown will prevent him from winning in a close finish."
That made it a cracking end to a cracking week for the blog. Follow me next week for the greatest horseracing festival on earth - Cheltenham.
Good luck, and keep reading the blog, from Wayward Lad (click).
Sunday, 13 March 2011
One selection, one winner - at 14/1 (oh yes!)
Yesterday's blog selection HOLMWOOD LEGEND came home at a whopping price of 14/1. Those who followed my advice were on at those odds and not the 11/1 given as Vic Chandler pays "best odds guaranteed".
I read the race perfect as HOLMWOOD LEGEND wsa in front from halfway, jumping superb, and when the fav Peplum was the only one chasing I knew it was in the bag. Why? Read what I said about Peplum yesterday - "...he does not get a yard further than 2m4f and the stiff uphill finish at Sandown will prevent him from winning in a close finish."
That made it a cracking end to a cracking week for the blog. Follow me next week for the greatest horseracing festival on earth - Cheltenham.
Good luck, and keep reading the blog, from Wayward Lad (click).
Good News
Just a quick note. I received an email from Racing Ahead's editor and they said the article is 'great'. It highlights the Brocklesby - the first Flat/turf two-year-old race of the season - which is held on the 2nd April at Doncaster's William Hill Lincoln Day. The article is provisionally titled: Tomorrow's Star: Brocklesby Pointers. It will be published in April's issue, which is released for sale in most newsagents at the end of March.
The article gives a plug to High Class Equine and, in addition, this will bring new readers to our blogging community.
The article gives a plug to High Class Equine and, in addition, this will bring new readers to our blogging community.
Saturday, 12 March 2011
Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery
I thought I was seeing things - double vision - when I noticed that Steve Mullington made reference to a blog he found of a very similar name to the popular blog Green All Over
This what Steve said:
Have you seen this link: http://greedallover.blogspot.com
Just found it in the O'Dwyer blog roll.
Cassini replied:
Indeed I have. I saw it a couple of days ago, and while imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I shall be consulting with my lawyers next week and issuing a cease and desist order shortly although I may accept a large cash payment instead. Pending receipt of the large payment, I have added the blog to my blog roll.
Take a look at Greed All Over
I'm waiting for someone to start a blog called PIGH CLASS EQUINE. (Although I've never been keen on French cuisine)
This what Steve said:
Have you seen this link: http://greedallover.blogspot.com
Just found it in the O'Dwyer blog roll.
Cassini replied:
Indeed I have. I saw it a couple of days ago, and while imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I shall be consulting with my lawyers next week and issuing a cease and desist order shortly although I may accept a large cash payment instead. Pending receipt of the large payment, I have added the blog to my blog roll.
Take a look at Greed All Over
I'm waiting for someone to start a blog called PIGH CLASS EQUINE. (Although I've never been keen on French cuisine)
Friday, 11 March 2011
Worst Gambler Ever: $127 million lost
What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas... specially specially the money you lose! In 2007, Terrance Watanabe lost about $127 million dollars in one year, making it one of the biggest – if not the biggest – losing streaks by an individual in Las Vegas history.
A native of Omaha, Nebraska, Mr. Watanabe had built his fortune on plastic trinkets, the kind given away at carnivals and church fund-raisers: batons filled with tinsel, magic wands that light up, plastic spider rings that cost $1 for a bag of more than 100. After selling his $300 million business in 2000, Watanabe "didn't know what to do with his time" according to some, and later became one of the casino's top customers.
The casinos devoured much of Mr. Watanabe's personal fortune, and benefitted the two casinos' parent company, Harrah's Entertainment Inc., which derived about 5.6% of its Las Vegas gambling revenue from Mr. Watanabe that year. He later started a legal fight with the casinos, saying they do bear some of the responsibility for his losses.
A native of Omaha, Nebraska, Mr. Watanabe had built his fortune on plastic trinkets, the kind given away at carnivals and church fund-raisers: batons filled with tinsel, magic wands that light up, plastic spider rings that cost $1 for a bag of more than 100. After selling his $300 million business in 2000, Watanabe "didn't know what to do with his time" according to some, and later became one of the casino's top customers.
The casinos devoured much of Mr. Watanabe's personal fortune, and benefitted the two casinos' parent company, Harrah's Entertainment Inc., which derived about 5.6% of its Las Vegas gambling revenue from Mr. Watanabe that year. He later started a legal fight with the casinos, saying they do bear some of the responsibility for his losses.
Thursday, 10 March 2011
It's Gone Very Quiet!
That's the sound of me not typing.
I will not have a chance to post too much today as I am writing an article for Racing Ahead magazine about this year's Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. It will be published early next month so hopefully I should see my name in print again. I have submitted a number of articles to them over the last couple of years as HCE gets a plug along the way so worth the effort.
If you fancy a good read, get April's edition.
I had better get back to this article - as it's not going to write itself (unfortunately).
I will not have a chance to post too much today as I am writing an article for Racing Ahead magazine about this year's Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. It will be published early next month so hopefully I should see my name in print again. I have submitted a number of articles to them over the last couple of years as HCE gets a plug along the way so worth the effort.
If you fancy a good read, get April's edition.
I had better get back to this article - as it's not going to write itself (unfortunately).
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
Monday, 7 March 2011
It Pays to be Patient in Speculation
If you haven't noticed - take note.
Two words.
First word: Patient.
Second word: Speculation.
Full result: Winners (in the last few days Mark has been patiently firing in the winners: 10/1, 9/1, 8/1...)
Two words.
First word: Patient.
Second word: Speculation.
Full result: Winners (in the last few days Mark has been patiently firing in the winners: 10/1, 9/1, 8/1...)
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