Wednesday's Racing Tips

Just a few pointers. Seven two-year-olds races across the country with changing ground conditions. Looking for one wearing wellington boots and a poncho. Yesterday's tip Sir Roger Moore had no luck in running and is much better than seen. If going for a maiden next start, especially at an average track, will take some beating. 

Back to Wednesday: 

1:50 Redcar - Hope Cove was fancied to go well last start at Doncaster, when third. That turned out to be a pretty hot contest and this looks a lesser race to taste of victory. If available at each-way prices - a fair bet. Kingthistle hasn't been seen for a couple of months but ran with credit at stakes class in the Brian Yeardley at Beverley. Mick Easterby doesn't have many juveniles in his care but E A Brook's charge could well hit the frame at 10/1 [backed]. 

6:15 Leicester - Al Dallah is capable of winning a maiden. She ran well on debut, especially so second start and then was collard by a fair juvenile in William Jarvis' at Brighton. Cole's third franked the form with a win at Windsor the other day. This daughter of Footstepsinthesand must have each way claims if prices allow. Continental Lady is worth noting on debut for David Brown. This daughter of Medicean is one of two fillies entered for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2) and her stablemate won last start. Their debutantes can go well especially if priced 13/2 & less sp. If well backed it would be a sign of confidence. Certainly worthy of interest and could be a winner in waiting. 

7:50 Leicester - Philip McBride is a trainer I rate and Musical Taste has been relatively fancied on both her starts to date. This daughter of Makfi is owned by Qatar racing Ltd. I had a few quid on this horse second start and expected a big run but it didn't really happen. The race has turned out to be a fair standard but I do think this bay filly may have disappointed for some reason. This doesn't look the strongest of races and the stable have a very good strike rate (small sample) at this course and I would hope she can ht the frame and fingers crossed she wins. 

1:50 Redcar - Hope Cove  (ew) 9/2 2nd
6:15 Leicester - Al Dallah (ew)  3/1 3rd + Continental Lady (ew) if 13/2 & less SP 100/30 1st (bigger earlier) 
7:50 Leicester - Musical Taste (ew)  7/2 2nd     

12:30 Redcar Racing Tips (4th November) IRISH STALLION FARMS EBF MAIDEN STAKES (Div I) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF maiden over 7f on soft ground. Division one of this two-year-old contest with eleven runners: fours colts, two geldings and five fillies. A trio of debutantes against a field of lightly-race juveniles from a mix of trainers. The betting could be particularly important so keep an eye on the market with Paddy Power.   

Weiner Valkyrie sets the standard after two runs. Unlike many home breds this bay filly was ready for action when making her debut over 7f at Salisbury. Ed Walker's charge is sired by Shamardal from a family which has sold well at public auction [Vienna Affair $380,000 4-y-o]. This American bred was fancied in the betting when starting at odds of 8/1 when a narrow loser to Jelly Monger who wasn't disgraced when competing in the Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3). Weiner Valkyrie wasn't disgraced when second behind Luca Cumani's Lady Of Dubai, although never posing a threat. Connections will be heading north for what should be a big run. Definitely the horse to beat if coping with the soft ground.

Bryan Smart is always a trainer to take seriously with his two-year-olds on their second start - they often go well. Lewis Valentine is an Irish bred son of Rip Van Winkle out of a dual-winning mare. This bay colt ran over 7f on debut when relatively weak in the market on good to firm ground. This step up in distance should be a positive. The ground is a slight unknown. The most important factor for this horse's chance is the betting. If priced 13/2 & less I would be confident this February foal would be placed. 

Of the debutantes one horse catches the eye - Brotherly Company. This Irish bred son of Fast Company out of an unraced mare is owned by Jaber Abdullah and trained by Richard Fahey. Few handlers feature a better strike rate with their debutantes. plus course and jockey statistics are decent. In fairness, this bay will need to be quite smart to beat the potential favourite who is likely to have an official rating in the 80s. I wouldn't bet on this horse unless decent odds.

Spinaminnie has been relatively fancied on both starts to date for Mark Johnston. This daughter of Moss Vale is stepping up in distance but needs to improve after being beaten by Pastoral Girl at Leicester, who was far from her best. 

Debutantes Bridget Gem & Dazzling Display are best watched.

Beatabout, Racing Spirit & Toboggan's Gift need to have a transformation and better suited at nursery class.

Ingleby Hollow was half fancied on debut and then ruined his chance at Newcastle by pulling when a distant third. Unless seriously backed - a watching brief.

David Simcock is represented by Intrude who wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Windsor, beaten a good few lengths. This son of Intikhab is out of Richard Hannon's Don't Tell Mum who wasn't disgraced at Group class. This drop back in distance may be more suiting. Intrude cost 160,000GNS at the yearling sales when purchased by Happy Valley Racing. You can imagine connections will be expecting more. If substantially backed or priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims. 

Conclusion: An intriguing race where a few trainers may have considered this a prime opportunity to win. Testing ground could be the biggest opposition to a few of these who will need to handle the conditions. Weiner Valkyrie sets the standard with two sterling efforts. It will take a decent juvenile to beat her although the soft ground brings concerns. Richard Fahey's Brotherly Company should be respected but will need to be fit, well and talented to lower the colours of the favourite. I wouldn't bet on this horse unless it was priced 8/1+ [unlikely]. The betting is key for Lewis Valentine. Bryan Smart's juvenile has strong place claims if priced 13/2 & less. Intrude has something to prove after a routine debut. If well backed there may be more to come. I'd bet on Lewis Valentine to get a place if in best betting guide.   

2:20 Redcar (7th April) REDCAR RACECOURSE CHEAPEST ADMISSION IN GREAT BRITIAN MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

Quite a restricted Maiden Auction Stakes race over 5f on good to soft ground. Twelve two-year-olds take part: three colts, nine fillies, horses weighted with regard to their yearling sales price. A number of leading trainers compete with three raced horses against the majority of debutantes. 

Paddy Again will be the horse of interest for many. This daughter of Moss Vale gained a few column inches being Bill Turner's star turn in the Brocklesby Stakes. This race heralds the start of the Flat turf season and favoured by this handler from Sigwells Farm. This bay filly isn't the best bred but she ran a cracking race to finish second to Cock Of The North. She travelled well on debut and touched short odds in-running, but couldn't hold the late challenge of the winner trained by Scott Dixon. Paddy Again had been well schooled, educated, race fit, and beaten on merit. The form has been franked by third placed Flyball, who won narrowly at Leicester on his second start. This March foal is quite well in at the weights, especially with her apprentice jockey taking a valuable five pounds off her back. It is still too early to assess the Brocklesby form although it would be a surprise if this filly wasn't good enough to win an average race. The horse to beat but at prohibitive odds there is always the fear there could be a horse or two with ability in the field.

Penalty Scorer finished ninth in the Brocklesby. Richard Guest's filly showed inexperience but an element of promise that day, before tiring in the closing stages. She looks well held by the likely favourite although the trainer's juveniles often improve a good deal for their first start. Best watched - but shouldn't be disgraced.

Jo Hughes trains the only other horse with racecourse experience, making a hasty return after three days. *Multi Quest was left trailing behind Patient Alexander at Wolverhampton when starting at odds of 33/1. It is difficult to assess the form of that race although significant improvement must be needed. Worth a look if seriously backed.

A number of debutantes hail from leading trainers, many capable of sending out two-year-olds winners on their racecourse bow. However, this race is a of a restrictive nature which often favours those with experience.

Tagtale is a cheap yearling purchase at 7,000euros. Richard Fahey is an exceptional trainer of two-year-olds - one of the best for priming a debut winner. The trainer has a decent strike rate at this course although in ways Patrick Mathers may be a negative jockey booking. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less this bay filly has fair win and place claims. 

Another trainer who knows his juveniles is Bryan Smart. One of just three colts in the field, River Compton is a relatively cheap yearling purchase at £10,000. This son of Compton place isn't two until the end of the month and out of a winning mare. The stable often send out their better two-year-olds early season. Although renowned as a prolific debut-winning trainers their youngsters do seem to struggle to taste victory on their initial start. If priced 13/2 & less it would bring more confidence. A horse I would rather watch today. 

Tom Dascombe has fielded three juveniles this season and all have looked inexperienced. Diatomic is a bay colt of Bushranger who cot 15,000euros at the yearling sales out of a poor mare who didn't race until three. This stable are capable of tasting victory on debut and it is a plus to be a colt against mostly fillies. The betting is the best guide. Most of the stable's winner are priced 11/2 & less. If weak in the market I would leave alone.

Drag Line is the most expensive in the field at 17,000gns and top weighted. This Irish-bred colt is out of first season sire Stimulation. Tim Easterby features a poor strike rate with his two-year-olds on debut and best watched.

Esk Valley Lady & Lazy Days In Loule are similar. 

Binky Blue was purchased by Tony Coyle for 13,000euros. This is very much a gambling stable and money is worth noting. 

Micheal Dods is a trainer I always note with his debutantes as they can win at speculative odds. They often slip under the radar and particularly interesting on soft ground. Reet Petite is a daughter of first season sire Fast Company (a sire who has been complimented by a number of trainers). The owner hasn't had a horse in training for a number of years but had success with John O'Groats back in 2002 with this handler. This stable is often worth an each way speculative punt on debut especially at fancy odds. It is difficult to assess whether the apprentice is a positive or a negative booking. 

Last but not least is Sarista. This February foal cost £12,000 at the yearling sales. A bay daughter of Kodiac out of an unraced mare. David Barron is worth noting on debut, especially if his juveniles are priced 10/1 & less. One for the short list if supported in the betting.

Conclusion: Paddy Again sets the standard after a cracking debut in the Brocklesby. She has plenty of pace, experienced, fitness & ready to win. The negative will be the short odds on offer. The nature of these restricted races details that form horses hold an advantage but that doesn't mean others cannot prove a problem. Although held by their earlier form, Penalty Scorer will be wiser for her first start. I would take a watching brief but Guest's youngster will do better today. The major debutante hopes include: Diatomic, Compton River, Tagtale, Sarista & Binky Blue. All have decent win and place claims at 13/2 & less. Reet Petite is an intriguing runner and may be worth a speculative punt if available at huge each way odds. I do have slight concerns about the jockey booking which temper my enthusiasm. On balance Paddy Again is the horse to beat but not a bet for me. 

*NR

2:10 Redcar (28th May) Free Racing Tips

An EBF Median Auction Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on Good ground. Quite a restricted race type for these thirteen two-year-olds from a mix of trainers. Five juveniles have race experience, of those two or three could be major players. Ollie Pears doesn't train many youngsters but he is a talent and capable of hitting the mark, placing his horses well. Augusta Ada is a strapping filly and make no mistake she will be winning this season. This daughter of Byron didn't go through the sales ring but a couple of her siblings have fetched good money. Even though starting at huge odds when making her debut at Beverley it wouldn't be a surprise to learn connections fancied their chances. She was so slow from the stalls that her finishing position was a credit. This bay filly still managed to claw back the ground and beat another of today's runners Spiceupyourlife. That 5f was always going to be a stride too fast and at fancy odds I quite fancied her to go well at York, over the extra furlong. The third that day, Tiger Twenty Two, disappointed next start but I wonder if that horse was slightly flattered, finishing well when the leaders tired. Augusta Ada will make the most of her experience. Although this is a sizable field it is quite a restricted race type which means the majority of the debutantes will struggle to attain what is a fair level of ability. If touching each way prices she looks a decent bet. From a smaller trainer, it isn't beyond the realms much bigger prices may be available on the exchanges if a few of the more fashionable trainers are backed as realistic opposition. The horse to beat.  

2:00 Redcar (2nd May) Racing Tips

Buy Your Tickets On-Line @ Redcarracing.co.uk Maiden Auction Stakes. Eight two-year-old take part over 5f on good to firm ground. A handful of fillies take on a trio of colts. This is a very restricted race type and not a fully-blown maiden. This is a very important factor especially so with a fair form horse in the field. Six horses have raced once, two debutantes.

Make no mistake Princess Pheeny will take a hell of a lot of beating. Richard Fahey took a good few runners before hitting the winner's mark but his juveniles have been in flying form these last few day. An impressive Stakes success from Eastern Impact and another stylish victory from Peniaphobia at Pontefract [Wednesday]. This daughter of Tagula looks a superb purchase at £6,000. She ran well on debut when finishing second at Newcastle. This February foal was rallying at the line and may well have got back up with another hundred yards. The form of that race has been franked by Lexington Rose [second colours for Middleham Park Racing] won well at Ripon. The fourth wasn't disgraced on her latest run at Doncaster. It is worth noting that Princess Pheeny had been entered to run at Ascot [Wednesday] for a competitive Stakes race. However, connections have their brain switched on and this looks easy pickings by comparison. She is likely to be a big odds on but if a shade of odds against is available on the exchange early doors it should be taken. 

Of the others with experience, Sullivan Park needs to improve on her debut run at Beverley. Horses can improve dramatically from their initial start and it didn't help that she bolted to the start. Ian McInnes is a talented trainer but I would take a watching brief.

Lady Montenegro was second string when racing at Ripon, less than a week ago. She needs to do much more and another who doesn't really appeal. 

Mrs Karl Burke is one of my favourite two-year-old trainers as this stable know when to strike. Baltic Fire was relatively fancied at Ripon and a prime draw but was hopelessly outpaced. That first start didn't inspire but horses should always be given a second chance and can be transformed. However, the key to this colt's chance is the betting. If priced 13/2 & less he has strong place claims. If weak in the market, I would wait for another day.

Kristen Stubbs has taken over from her mother [Linda] but you can guarantee she will be working hard behind the scenes. Idamante showed good pace on debut before tiring when finish down the field. This bay gelding was a big price that day and could well have needed the race. Stubbs' juveniles are always worthy of respect on their second start even if they look next to hopeless on debut. They have a very good place rate on second start and this one could hit the frame. 

Kevin Ryan hasn't started this new season with his customary verve, with most juveniles in need of the run or limited. Lady Captain wasn't fancied in the betting on debut and hampered at the start. This daughter of Captain Rio is a good-looking chestnut and she simply had no luck on her racecourse bow. However, there was promise shown in the way she finished. Connections will be expecting a better performance and it would be a mistake to note she was beaten over sixteen lengths so naturally she has no hope. It wouldn't surprise me to see a bold show although there are question marks which would make me treat careful at relatively short odds. I would take a watching brief but one to fear.

The two debutantes hail from talented trainers. Money could be a significant indicator to both.

Kirtling Belle is a home bred but related to a few decent horses including Beat Seven who was highly campaigned by Gay Kelleway. Keith Dagleish has a good marker in Robynelle who finished a length or so behind Princess Pheeny on debut. It is a slight negative she is a home bred because they can be a little ring rusty on their racecourse bow. The best indicator would be if this youngster was substantially backed.

David O'Meara fields Innocently. The stable don't have the best strike rate on debut and I would rather watch and learn.      

Conclusion: Princess Pheeny is the horse to beat and the restrictive nature of this race magnifies her chances. The form of that first start looks solid and the fact connections considered the Ascot Stakes race gives evidence they hold her in some regard and that winning a maiden shouldn't pose a problem. I can see this filly being big odds on by the start of the race. If even money is available at any time it could prove value. Lady Captain is a good-looking juvenile and will improve markedly on that first start. However, she will need to be pretty good to beat the favourite. Idamante could sneak a place and if drifting to decent odds may be of interest. The betting is key for Baltic Fire. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a transformation. If weak in the betting I would leave alone. Kirtling Belle would have claims if substantially backed.  Princess Pheeny would be my selection. 

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1:10 Redcar (29th October) Free Horse Racing Tips

A 0-65 Nursery over 5f on heavy ground.

Not the usual race type I would consider but this looks a fair opportunity for Beacon Tarn trained by Eric Alston. This home bred is a good-looking filly who went through the sales ring as a yearling for 80,000gns. The Middlebrook's [owners] must have had high hopes that this daughter of Baize - who ran at group level - could be similarly successful. In fairness, this youngster by Shamardal has been set some stiff tasks. She started her career in a conditions stakes race. Then a big-money sales race where, after showing good pace, was outpaced. However, the drop down to 5f gave a glimpse of what may come when showing good pace only fading in the closing stages. Eric Alston doesn't have many juveniles in his stable but a superb trainer of sprinters and I can see the team having this bay ready to roll. With an official rating of just 61, connections will not have a better chance of winning an ordinary race. There is little doubt in my mind Beacon Tarn has the pace to sit with the lead and then battle to the line. If prices allow, this looks a fair each way bet.  

11th September Free Horse Racing Tips

Today's post is written on the hoof so it won't be as detailed as per usual but try to cover a few more races. 

2:20 Leicester

Intimidate has been knocking on the door. Noseda has a fine record at this course with his juveniles and it will take a decent horse to beat this son of Royal Applause. There doesn't look much meat on the bone at less than 6/4. Probably a watching brief unless drifts in the betting.

2:30 Redcar

A crazy-looking handicap. My brother has taken a speculative punt on Oh Boy Oh Boy (monster odds). Difficult one to assess to be fair but Moffatt's horse is quite a good-looking juvenile and this step up to 7f will be a positive. At this weight, with an apprentice on his back, this gelding could show ability today. Personally, I have a feeling Annie Gogh could finally hit the mark. She showed good pace when running over 7f for the first time at Thirsk and was pretty keen which made that a fair effort. If settling a little better she may just lead these a merry dance. I'm pretty sure Fentimen will hit the front so most likely a back to lay.       


2:50 Leicester

Can't say I'm a big fan of Selling races but Sojoum has gone close in a few races and Channon does well at this grade. One of these days she will get her head in front. A fighting chance.

3:00 Redcar

A restricted auction race. Millie N Aire seemed all speed a few runs back but on a couple of later efforts looks to have been struggling to go the pace. Not sure what's going on with that one but if returning to her speedy self has a chance. Why So Fast hasn't had an ounce of luck in her races but she is a good-looking filly. David O'Meara takes over from Stuart William's and I would imagine a bold show will be on the cards. If substantially backed it would be a confident sign. We haven't seen the best of this daughter of Kodiac.  


3:50 Leicester

Another trainer who fires them up at this course is Sir Michael Stoute. Centred ran well on debut and this step up in distance will suit. A big run is expected in what could be a good day for Buik.


Best bets:

2:20 Leicester - Intimidate
2:30 Redcar    - Annie Gogh
3:50 Leicester - Centred

''What a load of rubbish...'' 

Free Horse Racing Tips: Goodwood, Redcar & Leicester

Wednesday:

A few interesting two-year-old races. There could well be an HCE Gold Tip selection, so keep checking the blog. All our subscribers will be kept informed so no worries there. Meetings at Goodwood, Redcar & Leicester. I want to watch the betting exchanges this evening for the markets to settle and will keep my analysis simple a few HCE Mentions. Sometime the brief approach is best. 

Thanks for the support. 

2:15 Redcar (2nd April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A restricted maiden auction race over 5f for colts and fillies. A field of debutantes from a number of leading two-year-old trainers. On paper, this looks a pretty moderate contest.

If following in the footsteps of many a Tom Dascombe two-year-old,  Out Of The Blocks could well take after his name. The stable had Ceiling Kitty finish second at Kempton on the first day of the Flat season, which may help assess the merit of this performer. A cheap purchase at 2,500gns, from a poor family, especially on the dam's side. This April foal is not quite two. As with most juvenile races, the protagonists are priced by trainer reputation. Dascombe is a fine trainer who often has his juveniles fit and ready to go well on their racecourse bow. Money is a telling sign for this stable. Consequently, this juvenile is best assessed by the betting. If fancied, the stable feature respectable win and place claims. Best left alone if a major weakness. 

Another trainer worth his salt is Mick Channon. Kryen's Rose is a cheap buy for Jaber Abdullah.It is interesting why such a wealthy man adopts the practise of owning such types. However, they often turn out to be quite informed buys. This daughter of Royal Applause cost just 5,500gns. She looks the type to improve beyond this minimum trip. At this time [Sunday evening] she is fancied on the exchanges, vying for favouritism. Channon has a reputation of sending out winning debutante but his statistic don't really reflect that opinion. In fact, his general win rate for juveniles making their debut is quite poor. The starting price is key to this ones chances. Very few of his juveniles win on debut when priced over 8/1. However, when fancied they hold a fighting chance, especially so when significantly backed close to the off. 

In what looks to be an open affair, the betting is a good guide. Jo Hughes' stable are not frightened of a punt and All Fur Coat is relatively fancied in the betting. This daughter of Multiplex comes from the dam of Stonefield Flyer, a talented juvenile who finished runner-up in the Windsor Castle. However, it should be noted that this £12,000 purchase was entered to run in the Selling/Plater race on this card (2:45). In many ways this is a negative. It certainly makes one question this filly's level of ability. On the other side of the coin, this is such a restricted race it could well be a Selling race in everything but name. Nonetheless, I would have to take a watching brief.

Lisa Williamson's Babylon Castle was another who bypassed the Selling race for this ''seemingly'' stronger contest. The stable have trained the odd juvenile winner but they are usually limited. 

Bill Turner makes the most of early-season races and comes here with Caught Napping. This son of Sleeping Indian was a cheap lot and breeding doesn't inspire. The only positive is that he's owned E A Brook. He is a very lucky owner with many of his purchases being the better two-year-olds Turner has trained. Last year's Brocklesby winner, He's So Cool, is a fine example. On balance, Turner doesn't feature the best win rate on debut.  Considering the stable is a rare visitor to Redcar he is worth noting although a difficult horse to assess.

Tim Easterby is represented by two fillies owned by Habton Farms. Sired respectively by Red Clubs and Captain Marvelous, they were cheap buys fitting the restrictive nature of this contest. Easterby has a poor strike rate with debutantes and a similarly dire strike rate at the course. Zero Rated is the more fancied of the two in the betting and Allan was booked to ride both at the first entry stage, suggesting he had the pick. 

*Secret Destination is owner-trained by Brian Ellison. He doesn't have the biggest string of two-year-olds but a capable handler. However, on breeding, this bay filly may need a greater test of stamina.

Midnight Dream is trained by Linda Stubbs, This gelding by Country Reel cost 9,000euros. Breeding suggests that a greater test of stamina will see him well although the stable should be respected. They feature a moderate win rate on debut but do have the odd decent two-year-old from bargain buys. Tom Eves holds fair stats when riding for the yard. On balance, I would take a watching brief but an interesting candidate compared to some.

Conclusion: A difficult race to have a strong opinion. Out Of The Blocks heralds from a trainer who features by far the best statistics when fancied in a poor race. However, a drift in the market would be a worry. Money is the best guide to this stable. Kryen's Rose is well owned by Jaber Abdullah. Channon doesn't feature the best strike rate on debut although it is fair for fancied runners. Certainly one of the major hopes, especially so if heavily backed. The fact that All Fur Coat & Babylon Castle were entered to run in the Selling race has to be viewed as a negative. While Tim Easterby's record at the course and similarly with debutantes is poor. Caught Napping is a difficult horse to assess but should be respected with lucky owner A E Brook although breeding doesn't inspire. Midnight Dream is one for the short list as the stable do find a decent juvenile or two. A race of such restricted nature often dictates juveniles are limited. A watching brief.