Showing posts with label Lady Frances. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lady Frances. Show all posts

Tuesday, 14 May 2013

4:25 York (15th May) Free Horse Racing Tips


An EBF Novices Stakes over 5f on Good to Firm ground. Eight juveniles take part: all colts/geldings bar one filly. Six winners search for their second victory with prize money of almost £10,000. By all account this is a hot little race. The winner will be heading for Royal Ascot.

Steventon Star was entered to run in the Lily Agnes but a wide draw made connections curtail such plans, which was most likely a wise decision. This son of Pastoral Pursuits ran well at Newbury on debut although second best - but clear of the third - behind Justice Day who went down fighting at Ascot. Richard Hughes commented that they were surprised Steventon Star was beaten on his first start. However, the money was put down in style when backed to 1/10f taking an average Windsor maiden without fuss. This youngster travels well and he is a worthy favourite on latest form. This could be a tough race with exciting opponents.

With five unbeaten juveniles in the line-up it is difficult to assess many of these horses beyond stating they have the potential to be smart. 

One Boy is a good-looking son of Captain Gerrard. This Irish bred gelding is the most forward of Micheal Dods' two-year-olds.  The form of that race has been franked with the third winning a moderate race, while others have been placed. By race type, that was a limited event and he has to prove more than most. Improvement should be seen but I wouldn't want to back this horse unless speculative priced. 

Richard Fahey's juveniles have been in form this last couple of weeks and Peniaphobia really caught the eye when winning at Pontefract. This Irish bred son of Dandy Man is a handsome colt, physically one of the  better horses I have seen this season. He looks a tremendous purchase at £20,000. There was good late money for this horse after opening at relatively big odds. The second and third placed horses have run well since but what appealed so much is the way Peniaphobia clawed up the Pontefract hill. With more experience he would have left the opposition floundering by double-figure lengths. It is worth remembering that Steventon Star beat the third placed, Meritocracy, by a number of lengths. Whether this sharp 5f will be a little too fast is a matter of opinion. However, that initial experience should see a professional display and he will run to the line.

Olly Steven may have just started his training career but he could be a name to be remembered by the end of the season. He has taken over Peter Winkworth's old stable, who still works behind the scenes, and they have a number of high-profile owners. Extortionist was fancied to go well at Nottingham and traveled like the winner halfway. It is still a little difficult to assess the merit of that form but it could be good. The sixth won next start [must have disappointed on debut] while the third is well regarded [Bounty Hunter]. I would take this horse seriously.

Two other winners made sparkling debuts. 

Innocently was a cheap yearling purchase at 11,000gns but probably added a zero to that figure with a superb display at Redcar. In fairness, that wasn't the strongest race as the favourite may have disappointed. However, this chestnut colt is a good looker and well backed.  The David O'Meara-trained youngster was keen in the early stages to a point I thought he would struggle to finish the race. Those fears were soon forgotten when Tudhope [jockey] took a swift look between his legs before pressing on for a comfortable win. The second horse has ability although the form is no more than average. Compared to Steventon Star & Peniaphobia, he has something to prove. Potential brings great hope but those have to be substantiated. Time will tell.

Another horse fitting this bill is Haikbidiac trained by William Haggas. The sire Kodiac has seen a number of talented juveniles this season and this bay colt traveled with ease leaving his opposition standing in comfortable style. I always take note of Haggas' winning debutantes as it is often an encouraging sign for this stable. A leading chance but needs to progress a good few lengths.


Lady Frances  won a small race on debut and then nearly fell when contesting a stakes race. The only filly in the field, she has something to prove. 

*Two Tykes has been set a daunting challenge and will need to be something special to figure here. Unlikely.

Conclusion: A fascinating race which looks a much higher standard than last year. The winner of this will be looking towards Royal Ascot and an impressive victory may highlight one of the favourites. Steventon Star sets the standard. It will take a decent horse to beat him. Peniaphobia caught my eye at Pontefract. This strong colt clawed up the Pontefract hill and sure to improve for that initial start. There is a slight concern this 5f will be just too quick because this is likely to be run at a pace. However, I like this colt and if pressed would be my selection. Extortionist, Haikbidiac & Innocently have to raise their game to test the favourite but potentially they could be class horses. It is difficult to assess comfortable winners. One of the most exciting races of the two-year-old season so far. 


*NR

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

2:25 Wolverhampton (25th April) Free Horse Racing Tips


An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 20y. Five runners: three colts, two fillies, one with race experience. Two horses make most appeal in this contest. David Griffiths has a few juveniles in training but generally they are limited. However, Lilo Lil, a daughter of Captain Gerrard who cost £2,000, seemingly ran a blinder on her second start after finishing tailed-off on debut. It proves the point that horses can be transformed from that initial start. She ran much better at Redcar just over a week ago when backed from 40/1 - 33/1. Considering she was carrying two pounds over weight that was a gritty display. After showing good pace I had expected her to drop out of contention but none of it - she battled. The winner won a shade comfortably and has been spoken with enthusiasm by trainer Michael Dods. With a couple of outsiders filling the frame it could be poor race. There are pointers to form but even restricted races can prove quality events and only time will tell if this form is strong or weak. As with most small trainers, I tend to be cautious especially at restricted odds, although I like her attitude.


For many, Lady Frances will be a straightforward selection. She may well lead the way. This home bred daughter of Exceed And Excel is out of a talented mare. In fact, she won a Listed race on debut - exceptionally difficult - and Group 3 race second start. On the last of her fourth start, she finished second at Group 1. That bloodline suggests this bay filly could be quite classy. The only negative is that the mare won over a mile at two so the stallion will need to impart his speed. As readers will know, I am indifferent about Mark Johnston's two-year-old debutantes. They are either easy winners or poor losers. Inexperience on a turning course can to costly and sometimes makes life a hard task. It will be interesting to see how the two favourites fare in the betting. As a general guide, the shorter the price the more optimistic I would be about Lady Frances.

Of the others, Caesars Gift was entered to run the other day but withdrawn. I'm a big fan of Derek Shaw and Brian Johnson [owner] has a few decent horses in his care. This son of Holy Roman Emperor was quite an expensive yearling purchase at 38,000gns. The trouble is that the majority of their juveniles need the run. I can see this youngster going well second start but the poor strike is a negative.

Will To Survive has also been entered to run but makes his debut today. Richard Guest doesn't feature the best win rate with his juveniles on their racecourse bow. In general, I wouldn't give them much hope unless seriously backed. This gelding has been entered for a Selling race which doesn't bring confidence. Not a horse I would bet.

Prixmiester is a home bred son of Piccolo out of a sprinting mare who went well on debut, then won second start [trained by Derek Shaw]. James Unett is a trainer who often slips under the radar and in recent years has done well at this course. 

Conclusion: A tricky race in ways ways. With so few runners there may not be much value on offer and each horse has question marks. Lilo Lil sets the standard and should make her experience count from a low draw. She didn't lack for pace last time and if the debutantes are ring rusty they could be beaten in strides. The downside is trying to assess the merit of that form. It was a sizable field which suggests it was a fair effort but by race type this is a step up in class. Lady Frances is bred to be a talent and Mark Johnston has been in decent form with his juveniles this season. If she has ability she will win. However, the mare was bred for a trip which does bring slight concerns. Caesars Gift is best watched. Will To Survive has a stiff task and will most likely be outpaced. Prixmiester could be a surprise package if available at speculative odds but whether I would be brave enough to bet is another thing. Which ever horse is favourite - that's my pick.

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