2:20 Newmarket (17th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Conditions Stakes race over 5f on good ground. A small field of five two-year-olds, four with form, three winners, one debutante, a mix of colts & fillies.

A stiffer test for these debut victors. With early-season form thin on the ground Stakes races can be hellishly difficult to call.

Mark Johnston has started this campaign on a positive note with a couple of debut winners, including Split Rock who ran out a tidy winner at Southwell. This son of Shamardal, out of a Listed-winning mare, was professional that day and sure to improve with racing. The problem is trying to assess the merit of that form. He looks a well made colt and will make the fillies look on the weak side. This stable should be respected. 

Tobias Coles is a talented trainer who does well with his small string of two-year-olds. Orton Park, a daughter of Moss Vale, is a good-looking bay and fair yearling purchase at £19,000. She was quite fancied on debut at Kempton and certainly knew her job. Held up, just off the pace, Stevie Donohoe gave a superb ride. A couple of cracks of the whip saw her charge at the line, beating Go Glamorous who looked to have the race won until the last stride. The third won next start and a couple of others have gone well. In truth, the horse who finished third, Kodafine, was an unlucky loser herself after a terribly slow start. Orton Park is likely to progress from that first start and a determined type.

The Trainer of M'Selle, Ron Harris, should have a fair idea where he stands with Orton Park because he trained the runner-up Go Glamorous. Lingfield isn't the easiest of courses for a debutante and especially so from a wide draw. She wasn't best away and ran to her right which for a few strides gave the impression she had little chance. However, this filly sprinted to the first bend and got to the rail. Harris' juvenile is a speedy sort because she had all the others off the bridle and won in comfortable fashion. The form of that race has been franked with the five, sixth & eighth winning although it is worth noting a few of those were in desperate need of experience. The second, Diamond Lady, has been beaten next start although that wasn't a bad race. M'Selle looked inexperienced on debut and will be wiser today. She shouldn't lack for pace. The negative is that she looked a little on the weak side and I just have concerns if it comes to a battle she may falter.

Vodka Time makes his third appearance after a beaten favourite on his last start at Kempton. This bay colt from Indian Haven was fancied and run creditably when second in the Brocklesby. David Evans [trainer] chatted to RUK before this colt's second start and seemed bullish about his chances. At times, you have to take these comments with a pinch of salt but I'm pretty sure they like this youngster. It could well be the case the Kempton race had a touch of class. The winner looked very professional and the unlucky second has her sights set on the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). Time may tell the first five have ability. Evans should know where he stands with regard to Orton Park because he had a debutante thrash Go Glamorous on her next start. He could be a live chance and if well backed it would bring more confidence. 


Clive Britain has never been afraid of a challenge and often his boldness has reaped rewards. Bahamian Heights starts his two-year-old career at Stakes level. This son of Bahamian Bounty cost 50,000gns at the yearling sales out of a listed-winning mare who was trained by Rae Guest. This April foal will need to be smart to beat winning opponents and it would seem a tall order. The majority of their debutantes win when priced 13/2 & less. 

Conclusion: Stakes races can often be a law unto themselves and a tricky race type. The form horses should have the edge over Clive Britain's debutante. However, for many trainers this can be a positive entry if not illogical to many race fans. I wouldn't consider Bahamian Heights unless he is priced 13/2 & less, which I imagine to be unlikely. It is difficult to assess the form of those raced. Split Rock is a decent-looking colt but what he achieved on debut is difficult to know. Only time will tell what he achieved. It is difficult to second guess. However, he does appeal against the two fillies with size and scope. M'Selle ran well on debut and looks to have plenty of pace. I just fear she may be a little bit weak, which could find her out. Stakes races are tough so don't be surprised if the field is strung out. Orton Park is a battling type and done well to win on debut. The form of that race looked to take a knock when Go Glamorous was comprehensively beaten by one of David Evans' newcomers. Ron Harris had stated that he thinks Go Glamorous is bound for the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). This may seem an optimistic statement or could it just be that Evans winner [Majestic Alexander] is a class horse? Vodka Time has been beaten twice but I am pretty sure that Kempton defeat was to talented juveniles. He could go well at a price. I would stick with Vodka Time & Split Rock but it's not a race I would bet. 


Other 2yo races:

3:10 Beverely:

Pointers: Hickster has been entered for a Stake race so positive sign. Captain Midnight has fair win & place claims if priced 13/2 & less. 

3:45 Beverley

2:00 Southwell (9th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f.  Five two-year-olds take part, two colts, three fillies, one with form. 

Kitty Brown is the only horse with experience, finishing second from last at Kempton at the end of March. This daughter of first-season sire Bushranger had little chance after a tardy start but wasn't hard pressed to be competitive thereafter. Evans had three starters that day and it is difficult to know what this little filly can achieve. Substantial improvement is needed to meet a winning level of ability. However, the stable are in good form, their two-year-olds have been hitting the mark and experience is a huge advantage. I would expect this April foal to ping from the stalls but there are questions to answer. If substantially backed it would bring more confidence but probably best watched.

It is never easy assessing debutantes because statistically they have it all to prove. However, one trainer who often bucks the trend is Richard Fahey. Musley Bank Stables have just about the same strike rate with their two-year-old debutantes as they do with those on their second start. This is a remarkable statistic and reason why Jaga Time must be respected. This chestnut son of Compton Place cost £10,000 at the yearling sales. The winning mare was a sprinter although a low-grade handicapper. The most likely winner on statistics but whether you wish to take a relatively short price is open to debate.

Split Rock hails from Mark Johnston's stable. He has had a few juveniles race this season but all have disappointed. This home bred son of Shamardal is out of a Listed-winning mare, who raced at Group level before retiring at three. She was bred to need a trip and beyond her debut raced over one mile. It is sensible to consider this chestnut colt will appreciate a stiffer test of stamina. There is little doubt if this March foal had gone through the sales ring he would have made a lot of money. Mark Johnson has an indifferent record with his debutantes.  They are either easy winners of disappointing losers. The stable usually test the water these first two months of the season and bring out their better early types late April to May. The greatest pointer may be Split Rock racing at Southwell because the stable have a superb win rate at this course. Win or lose, I would have to take a watching brief.

Another trainer who has a great strike rate at this course is Brian Ellison. They field two fillies: Claudia Octavia & Livia Drusilla. 

Brian Ellison owns and trains Claudia Octavia who was a cheap purchase at £3,000. This daughter of Holy Roman Emperor is out of an unraced mare who was bred to need a trip. Whether this minimum distance will be suiting is something of an unknown. 

Livia Drusilla is similarly sired and out of a poor mare who was bred for stamina. Ellison purchased this yearling for 15,000gns but she has since been sold privately. 

The main stumbling block for these two horses is that the stable often struggle to win on debut. Any stable can defy the stats but it takes a certain type of horse and intention. If in need of the race, it would be a surprise.

Conclusion: This is a tricky race to hold strong views. Kitty Brown is likely to make the most of her experience and David Evans is no ones fool. He will make every advantage count and if this little filly has ability she could well set the pace. If backed it would bring greater confidence.  The debutantes are difficult to assess because you can never be sure whether they are fit, ready and have their required distance. Jaga Time ticks the boxes on a statistical point and by far the most likely winner based on trainer credentials. Whether it would be wise to bet at relatively short odds is a matter for debate. Split Rock is well bred and the stable have a good strike rate here. However, Johnston's two-year-old debutantes run so indifferently that I wouldn't dare bet, especially at this time of year,  when he is testing the water. This horse will either win easily or be a big disappointment. Brian Ellison is a talented trainer but he too struggles to win with horses making their racecourse bow. Unless seriously backed I would have to watch. I would play it safe, take a watching brief. 


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