An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f on good to soft going. Legible for colts and fillies but the girls have been scared off by a ten-strong team of snips and snails and puppy dog tails... [colts & geldings for those not akin to the popular nursery rhyme]. My blogs do veer off into the unknown at times but what is life without prose? An intriguing race with a few potentially class two-year-olds hoping to make it second time lucky.
I've been mentioning Fatherly Friend in dispatches. Karl Burke is a superb trainer and I happen to know he likes this son of Scat Daddy. Hubert Strecher's American-bred colt was fancied to go well on debut but the combination of inexperience and a tough race saw a respectable fourth with the hope of much more to come. This January foal was entered to run at Carlisle but a wide draw and sticky ground gave connections good reason to take him out of that race. Connections will be expecting a big run and this is one of the best two-year-olds at Spigot Lodge. The team will be ready for action but I'm sure they will have slight concerns there are a couple [if not more] talents in opposition. Fair each way claims if the odds are available.
Another talking horse is Taneen. This son of Speightstown cost $350,000 at the yearling sales and races in the silks of Hamdan Al Maktoum. Roger Varian has given this American bred colt a string of Group entries which suggest big things are expected. In truth, their string of juveniles hasn't lived up to early-season hopes and I'm pretty sure they have re-adjusted their aims for many of their two-year-olds. I wasn't overly impressed by Taneen's debut run and if he didn't need the race on debut this might be a similarly tough contest. The betting with the bookmakers made this horse look like it had been backed from 11/4 - 13/8f. However, it is worth remembering that is was priced at odds-on the evening before. That drift suggested concerns and they were played out when beaten comprehensively into third place. The betting [11/4 at this time, Friday, evening] suggests that he will be one of the major fancies. I would keep an eye on the market and if particularly weak it would suggest he ran his race on debut. If strongly fancied I would expect to see marked improvement. A difficult horse to assess in ways and I would be careful that the flashy entries do not blind followers. The betting will tell the story.
On statistics Wimpole Hall and Clock Watcher have fair win and place claims if priced 8/1 & less.
Conclusion: I'm not going to write about all and sundry as I have my eye on Fatherly Friend and Taneen as the major hopes. Both colts are held in high regard by connections. I'd be more interested in the former especially if Varian's charge is particularly weak in the betting. Taneen is a funny horse to judge at the moment with the entries suggesting a high-class juvenile but the form kind of lukewarm. If he didn't show his running on debut there could be a good horse waiting to appear. The betting that day detailed that all was not well. At it's most extreme the drift in the betting was startling. The question is whether that was his true running. Fatherly Friend has ability and I expect a big run. If available at each way prices I would bet this horse of the two.
Note: Taneen clearly has ability and definitely improved for his debut. Looks a smart horse. Slightly irritated by Fatherly Friend who had no luck in running and stuck behind a wall of horses. That wasn't the true running of this horse by a long way. Will go well next start [if in a maiden] and could be a big price to make compensation.
A Maiden Stakes over 5f 193y on soft going. A big field of two-year-olds - a few of note if not hot reputations. I won't give an in-depth review as it will take all night. As usual, I'll highlight the major protagonists.
Very interested in Fatherly Friend, trained by Karl Burke. This horse is held in high regard. An American bred son of Scat Daddy out of an unraced mare. He is an expensive purchase at $140,000, racing in the familiar silks of Hubert John Strecker. Well fancied on debut, he was too inexperienced to do himself justice but ran on with vigour. After a break of fifty-plus days, a big performance is expected. The stumbling block could be the draw. Stall twelve doesn't lift the spirits and a sluggish start would bring concerns. I would feel much more confident if boxed nearer the rail. If making that debut count this colt will, hopefully, sit in a decent position and by all accounts take some beating.
My Two Scoops is no slouch and found a couple of tough races to compete on his first two starts. Ann Duffiled's charge is a good-looking juvenile who travels well. This step back in trip could see him run to the line. Draw two is a blessing and could hit a place at fair odds.
Few trainers excel like Richard Fahey on debut. As I have said before, he is one of very few handlers who feature a similar win and place rate with his two-year-olds on their first and second start, respectively. To most readers this may seem something and nothing. Take it from me, it's not, it is quite a remarkable feat. What this tells you is that, in general, his debutantes are fit and primed. Nimr may not have any flashy entries but certainly features a price tag which catches the eye. This son of Shamardal is out of a ten-times winning mare who won at Listed class and Group placed with a highest official rating of 110. This half-brother to Gothic cost 200,000GNS at the yearling sales and now in the ownership of Al Shaqab Racing. He is well drawn and fancied in the betting.
Worlds His Oyster was fancied on his debut at York but failed to shine when last of eleven. It's a strange factor but sometimes the worse a horse looks on debut the better they seem to go on their second start. Any horse can disappoint on their first start. John Quinn knows his two-year-olds and this son Pivotal out of a winning mare originally held an Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) entry. This bay colt was purchased at the breeze-up sales for £110,000. The betting suggested a big run on debut. On my statistics this horse has similar win and place claims which suggests it will either win or be unplaced. Intriguing.
Siege Of Boston is a very rare two-year-old runner for Deborah Sanderson, although she has done well with a few juveniles over the years. This son of Starspangledbanner out of a low-class but multiple-winning mare was backed on debut at Nottingham but never involved. He cost £70,000 at the yearling sales. That disappointment - combined with a small trainer - will see this chestnut colt start at big odds today. There could be more to come.
Conclusion: A competitive race for Carlisle and a few trainers/connections expecting a win. Fatherly Friend has been on my radar and I would fancy this one with confidence if not for a wide draw. That stall position may not make a jot of difference but it does bring concerns. It would put me off betting at relatively short odds and I'd need 5/1 or so to take a risk. The horse to beat and good each way claims if getting into a decent position. Nimr is interesting and well owned, trained and cost a good few quid. Certainly a horse that could go well. Worlds His Oyster & Siege Of Boston could go well but difficult to judge. On balance I'd have a few quid each way on fatherly Friend and hold my breath and hoping the wide draw doesn't make for problems.
