A good few races so I will detail a few live chances as I review:
2:00 Ayr - Ontoawinner racing syndicate do well with their two-year-olds. Tabikat Elle has been mentioned in dispatches. This daughter of Showcasing wasn't overly fancied on debut and needed the experience. In fairness, that may have been a tougher race that it looked on the day. I'd expect this chestnut filly to be more professional today - looking a progressive type physically. The betting is key. If starting 13/2 & less SP I'd give her decent each-way claims. If weak in the betting take a watching brief.
6:00 Thirsk - Interesting to see Kevin Ryan's Laughton making a quick return after disappointing at Haydock over 6f. That was a decent race and perhaps his defeat simply showed this colt's limitations. However, this son of Acclamation is held in high regard at home and may appreciate this drop back to the minimum trip. It does give the impression he didn't show his running last time out. It's last chance saloon as a betting proposition. The classic easy winner or dismal loser. I'll take a watching brief, such is my nature.
6:30 Thirsk - Quite a restricted race type which gives preference to form horses. Dark Confidant is a consistent horse who travels well over 7f. I had an each-way bet on this juvenile last time out. This son of Royal Applause ran well, touched odds-on in-running, before tiring in the final half furlong. It was a respectable effort. Guest's charge will run there about and should hit the frame. I would try to lay my bet in-running at shorter odds, as he may well lead.
Midnight Macchiato would get the nod. This son of Dark Angel wasn't fancied on debut at Doncaster but run well to finish fourth of eleven. The stable rate this youngster and he should go well. At 5/2 [written Sunday evening] there isn't too much fat on the butcher's pencil so may be the type to put in an each-way double/treble if you feel like a dabble. Decent win and place claims if odds allow.
Small ew treble
Fair win double Tabikat Elle & Midnight Macchiato [bet late to make sure the former is in best betting guide, if not, no bet)
Tabikat Elle - Dismally poor
A Maiden Auction Stakes over 6f on good to soft going. Eight runners in this fairly restricted two-year-old contest weighted with regard to sales price - maximum £25,000. All colts/gelding bar one filly. Only a few pounds separate top to bottom weight. The majority lightly raced with a couple of debutantes.
Run To Rio was fancied on debut but was either outpaced or inexperienced. This son of Captain Rio was the lesser fancied of two juveniles for Dods, when showing improved form over an extra furlong at Newcastle, caught on the line by the well-backed favourite. The form of that race looks fair for this level and on breeding the going should suit.
Denton Hall field stablemate and debutante Dark Command. This gelding is a son of Kheleyf, purchased at the yearling sales by the trainer for 9,000GNS. Dods can do well with his debutantes and a good number are placed. This stable often go better on soft ground so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go well. With Run To Rio showing such promise last start I would favour that individual.
Dessert Rule wasn't fancied on debut for Jedd O'Keeffe. This son of Kheleyf was slow away and ran on in the closing stages when Ode To Evening cruised to a nine-length victory. Highbeck Racing are loyal patrons of the stable and although their juveniles are likely to progress second start this bay colt is best watched.
Richard Fahey is a class trainer of two-year-olds and probably the best at priming juveniles to win on debut. Very few handlers come close statistically when comparing first to second start. Ingleby Valley was relatively fancied on debut at Carlisle over 5f. This chestnut son of Sahkee's Secret showed signs of inexperience in the paddock but ran well when playing second fiddle to Moondyne Joe. I don't think that was the strongest of heats, which isn't a surprise when it was similarly a maiden auction. The leaders looked to go a stride too fast and fell in a hole and the first three came from well off the pace. This home bred should like the going and appreciate the extra furlong.
Richard Guest often slips under the radar, especially with two-year-olds, but he is a talented trainer and gives a very honest review on his website. Lydia's Place has served him well this season with three tidy wins after needing the run on debut. I must admit Dark Confidant caught the eye first start when sent off a 33/1 shot in what looked to be a pretty hot contest. This good-looking gelding, a son of Royal Applause, traveled with great gusto when ridden by Joey Haynes and had most in trouble until tiring in the final furlong. The third has a level of ability and the winner won on debut for Sir Michael Stoute and will be racing at Group class before long. Guest drops this gelding back a furlong and this is a drop in grade. This shorter trip may take the edge off his natural pace but he should run to line and by all accounts run a big race.
Domineeno looks second string for Ingmanthorpe Stables.
Keith Dalgleish fields a couple of runners including the only filly Candy Hill. This bay daughter of Jeremy has been fancied on both starts but disappointed on debut. However, she ran with more credit second start when losing to Mr Chuckles, who was 25/1. In truth, that looked a pretty moderate race. She steps back up to 6f. I would prefer others.
Aussie Express cost £5,000 at the yearling sales. Equus Syndicate have done well with Glenrowen Rose, who won for the yard and far from disgraced when sixth in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2). Probably best watched unless seriously backed.
Conclusion: This looks a fair race for the grade. Unless one of the two debutantes has ability [potentially both second string] this is most likely out of four horses. Candy Hill races against the boys and while she improved last start it was rather a motley affair. Possible. I'd rather watch. Ingleby Valley ran well enough on debut although the front runners went a stride too fast and the complexion of the race changed dramatically in the closing stages. This step up in distance should be a positive and the ground will suit. On statistics he holds respectable win and place claims. Run To Rio is a straightforward juvenile and put up a bold show last start when nabbed on the line. Must run well and hold every chance and a sound bet if each way odds are available. I was taken with Dark Confidant on debut. He looks a great buy at 4,000GNS. In some respects I would be more confident if running over 7f because he showed very good pace that day. You have to trust the trainer knows best and I do with Richard Guest. The testing ground should help and this bay gelding could well improve as the stable's two-year-old often do second start. If touching each way odds should go well.
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6:10 Beverley - White Bullet has run well on both starts. Very few two-year-olds start their career at Listed Class. This daughter of Exceed And Excel wandered under pressure at Newmarket when stepping up to 6f. Kevin Ryan's charge should have won if keeping straight and by all accounts is a pattern winner running in a maiden. Unless disaster strikes - she will win.
6:20 Windsor - Justice Lass is held in some regard by connections, racing in the familiar silks of Robert Ng. As noted on Group Horse, this daughter of Canford Cliffs held a Listed entry before making her debut at this course over the minimum distance. This bay filly ran on all too late, which was due to an insufficient trip and then ran in another hot contest when facing Ballydoyle, who was a narrow loser in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. David Elsworth must feel this 6f is the ideal for now after showing good pace last time out at Newmarket. There was no disgrace in finishing fourth. Little Voice is the major opponent but if making Justice Lass an each way bet - I'd take the challenge.
Couple ew trebles -
1:55 Ayr - Run To Rio or Dark Confidant 3rd (11/2)
6:10 Beverley - White Bullet 2nd (1/8) Unbelievable
6:20 Windsor - Justice Lass 1st 13/8
An EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f on soft going. Seven two-year-old take part: six colts & one gelding. A solitary juvenile with race experience. I won't review each horse but detail a debutante which is likely to be fancied in the betting. Most readers will know where I am going with this post as last year this race was won by a very special talent: The Wow Signal.
This bay colt, a son of Starspangledbanner out of an unraced mare, won this race in great style by nine lengths, beating a strong field, then winning the Coventry Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. His crowning glory taking the Darley Prix Morny (Group 1) in Deauville, France. He beat another Royal Ascot victor Hootenanny, trained by globetrotter American-based Wesley Ward. Hootenanny went on to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in Santa Anita, USA.
That's a long introduction to detail tomorrows debutante Ancient Astronaut, trained by John Quinn. Handlers are often creatures of habit so the word is out that this son of Kodiac out of an unraced mare has ability. This bay colt cost 80,000 GNS at the Tattersalls October Sale 2014 [70,000 GNS foal]. To follow in the hoof prints of The Wow Signal is an unenviable task, which by anyone's measure is likely to disappoint. So far this year, Quinn has struggled with the juveniles which have made their debut. However, it is worth noting Ancient Astronaut has been given a Stakes entry which garners some confidence.
Two-year-old horses racing - more than any age - is built on hopes and dreams. However remote the chance many will be watching in anticipation that a horse of class will make his presence felt in an ordinary race.
A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 6f on good to firm ground. Just four runners: three raced, one debutante. Quite an interesting contest with a couple of fair sorts for this restricted race type.
Broadcaster showed limited ability on debut when running over 7f at Haydock, finishing second from last. By all accounts that was a strong race with the winner placed at Group 2 level next start, while the second and fourth have both proven victorious. This son of Jeremy could well have disappointed on his first start because he showed big improvement when dropping down a furlong at Newcastle. This youngster was purchased and owned by John Fretwell for £39,000. His trainer, Ed McMahon, is a talent whose juveniles often slip under the radar. Few pundits appreciate his outstanding win and place statistics on their seconds start and that was certainly the case with this April foal. The betting indicated connections fancied their chances and from leaving the stalls it was clear he would be a major player. I was struck by this handsome bay colt who I didn't really notice [physically] when making his race course bow. It will be a surprise if he isn't the best looking in this field. In many ways Sean Levey [jockey] may have sent his charge to the front a little early because he power clear - touching short odds in-running - only to be collared in the closing stages. In fairness, the winner, Lily Rules, is a strong finisher and a decent juvenile for that grade so he may have been on a hiding to nothing whatever tactic he employed. However, Levey has been replaced by Graham Gibbons, which may suggest Mr Fretwell wasn't best pleased. This horse sets a fair standard and will take the beating.
Another of my favourite trainers - a stable which have won me a lot of money in my time - is that of Mrs K Burke (Karl is set to regain his licence in the next few weeks). Ticking Katie is owned by Ontoawinner who are a great syndicate and a name we have promoted for a number of years. This daughter of Baltic King needed the run when making her debut at Haydock. It is important to always watch the betting of their two-year-olds on their second start because when the money flows a big run is usually forthcoming. There was a substantial gambler on this filly [a superb yearling buy at 4,000gns] and there were a few sad faces when Karen Tutty hammered their wallets to the wall with her first two-year-old winner. There was nothing wrong with that performance and another day of the week we would have seen a comfortable win. Ticking Katie has a fighting chance against the colts.
I must admit that I often look at Alan Berry's few two-year-old debutantes and quickly come to the conclusion: ''You can't win''. In truth, his general standard of horse is poor and they are often left trailing by the time the opposition have covered a furlong. However, I was shocked by Straight Gin when he made his debut in a big-money Selling Stakes at Musselburgh. I don't mind saying I laid this horse quite early on the exchanges for a large sun of money and then noticed this son of Major Cadeaux had been well backed. Considering I had bet thinking he would drift I learned a valuable lesson to be respectful of each horse and trainer. This bay gelding ruined his chance with a tardy start but make no mistake he has ability. Don't be fooled into thinking he must be poor to run at plating class [surprisingly some two-year-olds have started in this grade and competed at Group class!]. The winner is a good, solid horse. The second is a speedster who lost in a photo finish in a nursery next start. While the third horse will be winning soon. Alan Berry's charge ran on well at the line and with that initial experience on side, stepping up in distance, expect marked improvement. If touching big odds on the exchanges I would be tempted to back this gelding.
To add to the melee we have a debutante from Richard Fahey who is one of the best trainers of two-year-olds on their first start. Our data analysis has revealed that he is something of an anomaly. His first and second time out statistics with fancied two-year-olds is pretty much the same. This may not sound anything out of the ordinary but you couldn't be further from the truth. I can name only one or two trainer who fit such a criteria which details this stable pay great attention to their debutante's education and fitness. Malraaj is a home bred son of Iffraaj owned by the The Cosmic Cases who have fielded a number of talents [Cosmic Sun and Mister Hardy will bring fond memories for many readers]. The betting is the best guide to this youngster's chances. If priced 13/2 & less sp he could well bring something to the table.
Conclusion: This may be a small field but in its own way a fascinating race. It is a competitive little heat which puts me off betting because there seems little value with the favourites. Broadcaster is a good-looking colt for this grade. Connections will probably sit off the pace and hope to use that power to finish the race. The horse to beat. Ticking Katie is a winner waiting to happen and determined filly. Alan Berry doesn't get many plaudits but he can do the business with a talented juvenile. Straight Gin will be winning this season and time may tell that selling race was a full of winners. Expect a big run and if touching fancy odds on the exchanges I would be tempted to have a small bet. The betting is the best guide to Malraaj although he will need to be pretty smart to win this first start. A difficult race to be dogmatic and from a professional stand point a watching brief.
A Median Auction Maiden over 6f on good ground.
An intriguing race with a couple of fair juveniles on show.
Majestic Moon made an encouraging debut over course and distance. Richard Fahey's colt, a 55,000gns yearling purchase, was sent off favourite and done little wrong when outpointed by fellow debutante Parisian Prince by just under one length. Both horses came in for good support that day and connections must have been anticipating a bold show.
Another of today's runners, Red Style, finished third. On balance, Majestic Moon looks to hold a fair adavntage over Paul Midgley's youngster, although Red Style has pace and could take some pegging back if given an easy lead. A horse that may touching shorter odds in-running but will need the likely favourites to disappoint to gain his first victory.
Majestic Moon should improve for that initial start and must go close.
Ana Amaratiya looks the main danger. In ways this daughter of Sleeping Indian is difficult to assess. If her last run in the Albany Stakes (Group 3) is to be believed, this bay filly should take all the beating. She was substantially backed at Newcastle in what turned out to be a decent race on fast ground. Time may tell that she was still a little ring rusty on that second start because this January foal was clueless on debut at York. However, she was clearly struggling to go the pace at Newcastle & never landing a blow. Royal Ascot saw a very contrasting performance as she, seemingly, showed good pace only to tire in the closing stages. Perhaps the ground at Newcastle was too fast and those softer conditions more suiting? The ground at Ayr will be somewhere in between, which shouldn't be a problem. The form of that Royal Ascot running would give strong claims but the sight of her struggling to go the pace on that second start brings concerns.
Red Style will probably set the pace and if Ryan's two-year-old lacks natural pace it would make life very difficult.
Of the others, Amelia Jay looks flattered by her placed effort at Hamilton.
Fife Jo showed promise on debut but is best watched today.
The debutantes will need to be pretty smart and primed to win. Kolonel Kirkup was a cheap purchase out of the fancy-named mare Strawberry Lolly. Kevin Kirkup is an exceptionally lucky owner and Michael Dods has the knack of sending out surprise juvenile winners. On balance, this would need to be a sterling effort to trouble the leading fancies although the stable have a few talented juveniles to give them a line. May sneak a place but best watched unless a speculative price.
The betting is the best guide to Hello Gorgeous. Keith Dalgleish knows a good horse and money talks with this stable. This homebred may appreciate a stiffer trip and would need to be substantially to make me take note.
Linda Perratt won this race last year with debutante Cafe Express. In truth, that was a pretty ordinary contest. In general, the stable do not feature the best strike rate with their juveniles. However, *Northside Ace is a full brother to the speedy Sonko and cost 26,000gns at the yearling sales. The mare, Baltic Belle, was a fair juvenile when trained by Richard Hannon. If this son of Red Clubs takes after his mother & sister he will win races in time.
Conclusion: Majestic Moon is the most guaranteed performer and fancied to win on this second start. From a good family, he will be fitter and wiser for that initial start which saw Red Style put in his place. Probably priced to chance but looks a tough nut to crack. Red Style is a fair juvenile in his way and a determined soul. He would need Fahey's horse to disappoint to win but could well touch shorter odds in-running. In fact, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him look the winner until the last furlong. It would be a mistake to give this juvenile an easy lead. Ana Amaratiya is a difficult horse to asses. The basic question is to consider whether she has plenty of pace or not? I'm still undecided. The Albany performance would give strong claims. If betting, I would be tempted to see how she travelled in the first furlong. If outpaced, as seen at Newcastle, I can't see her winning. In may opinion, unanswered questions never make for good bets at short prices. One to respect but I would have to take a watching brief. The debuatntes would need to be talents to win and experience is preferred.
*NR
HCE Mentions:
3:30 Lingfield - Frege
looks a good place bet (1.34)
7:35 Wolverhampton - Intibaah
Lot of confidence about this juvenile and it would be a surprise if not placed at least
