Sunday 29 July 2012

2:05 Ayr (30th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden over 6f on good ground.

An intriguing race with a couple of fair juveniles on show.

Majestic Moon made an encouraging debut over course and distance. Richard Fahey's colt, a 55,000gns yearling purchase, was sent off favourite and done little wrong when outpointed by fellow debutante Parisian Prince by just under one length. Both horses came in for good support that day and connections must have been anticipating a bold show.

Another of today's runners, Red Style, finished third. On balance, Majestic Moon looks to hold a fair adavntage over Paul Midgley's youngster, although Red Style has pace and could take some pegging back if given an easy lead. A horse that may touching shorter odds in-running but will need the likely favourites to disappoint to gain his first victory. 

Majestic Moon should improve for that initial start and must go close.

Ana Amaratiya looks the main danger. In ways this daughter of Sleeping Indian is difficult to assess. If her last run in the Albany Stakes (Group 3) is to be believed, this bay filly should take all the beating. She was substantially backed at Newcastle in what turned out to be a decent race on fast ground. Time may tell that she was still a little ring rusty on that second start because this January foal was clueless on debut at York. However, she was clearly struggling to go the pace at Newcastle & never landing a blow. Royal Ascot saw a very contrasting performance as she, seemingly, showed good pace only to tire in the closing stages. Perhaps the ground at Newcastle was too fast and those softer conditions more suiting? The ground at Ayr will be somewhere in between, which shouldn't be a problem. The form of that Royal Ascot running would give strong claims but the sight of her struggling to go the pace on that second start brings concerns. 

Red Style will probably set the pace and if Ryan's two-year-old lacks natural pace it would make life very difficult.

Of the others, Amelia Jay looks flattered by her placed effort at Hamilton. 

Fife Jo showed promise on debut but is best watched today.

The debutantes will need to be pretty smart and primed to win. Kolonel Kirkup was a cheap purchase out of the fancy-named mare Strawberry Lolly. Kevin Kirkup is an exceptionally lucky owner and Michael Dods has the knack of sending out surprise juvenile winners. On balance, this would need to be a sterling effort to trouble the leading fancies although the stable have a few talented juveniles to give them a line. May sneak a place but best watched unless a speculative price.

The betting is the  best guide to Hello Gorgeous. Keith Dalgleish knows a good horse and money talks with this stable. This homebred may appreciate a stiffer trip and would need to be substantially to make me take note.

Linda Perratt won this race last year with debutante Cafe Express. In truth, that was a pretty ordinary contest. In general, the stable do not feature the best strike rate with their juveniles. However, *Northside Ace is a full brother to the speedy Sonko and cost 26,000gns at the yearling sales. The mare, Baltic Belle, was a fair juvenile when trained by Richard Hannon. If this son of Red Clubs takes after his mother & sister he will win races in time.

Conclusion: Majestic Moon is the most guaranteed performer and fancied to win on this second start. From a good family, he will be fitter and wiser for that initial start which saw Red Style put in his place. Probably priced to chance but looks a tough nut to crack. Red Style is a fair juvenile in his way and a determined soul. He would need Fahey's horse to disappoint to win but could well touch shorter odds in-running. In fact, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him look the winner until the last furlong. It would be a mistake to give this juvenile an easy lead. Ana Amaratiya is a difficult horse to asses. The basic question is to consider whether she has plenty of pace or not? I'm still undecided. The Albany performance would give strong claims. If betting, I would be tempted to see how she travelled in the first furlong. If outpaced, as seen at Newcastle, I can't see her winning. In may opinion, unanswered questions never make for good bets at short prices. One to respect but I would have to take a watching brief. The debuatntes would need to be talents to win and experience is preferred.  


HCE Mentions: 

3:30 Lingfield - Frege

looks a good place bet (1.34)

7:35 Wolverhampton - Intibaah  

Lot of confidence about this juvenile and it would be a surprise if not placed at least