Sunday 16 June 2013

2:15 Carlisle (17th June) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes over 5f 193y on good ground. Twelve two-year-olds contest this restricted race type, eight with experience, four debutantes, just about an equal mix of colts and fillies. Two horses will be prominent in the betting and could well be fighting out the finish: Mr Matthews & Ixelles Diamond. This pair have already locked horns when competing at Warwick with just a nose separating them at the line.

Mr Matthews hails from a stable who rank highly and this son of Diamond Green was well backed on debut. A cheap yearling purchase at just 4,000gns, this bay gelding is a big, strong sort although he has a noticeable knee action, if not a little clumsy-looking. However, that does nothing to hinder a determined attitude. Mrs Karl Burke has probably been waiting for this better ground and even from a somewhat wide draw he is likely to make a bold bid for the front. Connections expected a big run on debut and they were disappointed not to have collected. This April foal was pretty fit and ridden with purpose so there might not be ample improvement although the stable generally have their juveniles primed on their second start. If touching each way prices, Mr Matthews looks a solid bet.

It is intriguing to see Ixelles Diamond re-opposing today because I can imagine respective connections rolling up their sleeves ready for a good scrap. In many respects this brown filly, who comes from the same sire in Diamond Green, looks the logical winner. This stiffer test would give encouragement that a bold show is in the offing. Richard Fahey has a number of talents in his string and the team usually have a good idea where they stand. It was noticeable that this filly drifted quite markedly in the betting when making her reappearance at Redcar. Clearly, there were concerns that the minimum trip would be a little too sharp and that proved to be the case. After being outpaced, she ran on but never quite troubling the leaders. The form of that race - for this grade - has been franked and this extra yardage on decent ground and prime draw will help. It still wouldn't be a surprise to see Hamilton [jockey] struggling to keep tabs on a few of these at the start and her strength will be seen at the finish. 

An intriguing re-match.

Tony Coyle doesn't have many two-year-olds in his string but the stable seem to like a gamble, which often indicates their better prospects. Kirkstall Abbey was seriously backed when making her debut at Leicester in an EBF Maiden Stakes. By all accounts, that race type is of a much higher grade than this auction level. This daughter of Bushranger was a £14,000 breeze-up purchase which gives valuable experience. A slow start didn't stop a purposeful effort, running on to take third place. The form of that race has taken a knock with the second [Queen Of The Tarts] being beaten since. Interestingly, the mare was campaigned at Group class, winning on her second start but over twelve furlongs at three. Kirkstall Abbey should improve.

The other experienced horses have shown a mixed level.

Mitcd was made favourite for her second start at Hamilton, when racing over 6f. The form of that race looks pretty weak and with an apprentice taking the ride it is probably best to consider this is the stable's second string. Not beyond a glimmer of ability although others make more appeal.

Please Let Me Go ran in the same race and was fancied in the betting until a marked drift just before the off. This daughter of Sleeping Indian was snoozing in the stalls and had no chance thereafter. The betting is the best guide to her today and if priced 13/2 & less it could well prove significant.

A similar story can be told for Bryan Smart's representative Disclosure.  This gelding was fancied in the betting but took a huge walk in the market just before the off. This strong-looking juvenile showed good pace but soon lost his place and then hampered when not much room. Smart has done well with his two-year-olds this season and the betting is key when assessing this son of Indesatchel. If priced 13/2 & less I would expect a big run and strong place claims.  

One form horse who may be worth a speculative punt is Sarlat. Mark Brisbourne doesn't have many two-year-olds but he certainly knows how to train a winner. This bay filly cost 10,000gns at the yearling sales [bought by trainer] and was quite well backed on debut at Bath. Finishing last and beaten some nineteen lengths doesn't look the best starting point to picking a winner but it is worth noting that she has been entered for a Stakes race and the stable won this race last year. Sometimes the worse they look the better they go and most juveniles show their worth second start. If huge odds are available on the exchanges she could be worth a few pounds each way. 

Of the debutantes, Trinity Star could go well as Michael Dods' juveniles often hit the frame when making their racecourse bow. 

Autumn Tide would make more interest if backed. 

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: Quite an interesting race in its own way. Mr Matthews & Ixelles Diamond are closely matched on their first start and there is probably good reason to consider that the latter will take advantage on this stiffer course. However, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Mr Matthews primed today and that pace seen on debut should help him get to the lead. Ixelles Diamond may just struggle for pace in the first few furlongs and run on at the line. If Mr Matthews touches each way prices, he looks a decent bet. Kirkstall Abbey is difficult to assess but should be respected. The betting is the key for a few of the form horses who ran poorly on debut. If Please Let Me Go & Disclosure are priced 13/2 & less I would expect a transformation and particularly the latter would make a sound each way bet. If weak in the betting they are best watched. Trinity Star could go well and if touching speculative odds is worth a few quid each way. Sarlat will be the classic first or last. If touching huge odds I wouldn't let this horse slip by without a small bet. A fascinating race. Mr Matthews would get the nod, while Sarlat could be the horse that wins you a thousand pounds for a tenner. [Perhaps]