Tuesday 30 April 2013

2:20 Pontefract (1st May) Free Horse Racing Tips

William Hill/British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f on good to firm ground.  Fifteen juveniles compete: all colts bar two fillies.

Meritocracy has shown ability on both stats to date and probably beaten by a couple of talented juveniles at Newbury. Richard Hannon's runner-up won easily at Windsor. Paul Cole rates this bay colt and said he would be better on firmer ground. Mrs Fitri Hay's representative has plenty of pace and likely to set sail for a win. He will be there at the furlong pole although this stiff finish may well see him holding on at the line. If prices allow he has win and place claims. 

Of the other form horses, Chamberlain ran well on debut at Beverley and a good-looking colt. He was relatively fancied for one of Alan McCabes and the form looks fair. He could improve. 

Sartori wasn't fancied in the betting on debut at Bath but ran on with promise. It is worth noting that this son of Elnadim has been entered to run in a Stakes race and that may be a significant pointer. Charles Bishop takes off a valuable 5lb and a low draw makes for interesting reading. Many of this stable's youngsters improve substantially on their second start and this bay colt could be a dark horse. If the money comes I would take serious note.

Another juvenile who has been given a Stakes entry is Tom Dascombe's Hickster. To be fair he didn't achieve a great deal that day but nor was he fancied in the betting, which probably told the story. Unless this April foal was in need of the run he has a tall order here. However, if backed to 7/1 & less SP it would be a positive sign more is expected.

The debutantes will need to be sharp if they are to beat the likes of Meritocracy. Mark Johnston's two-year-olds have been going well and Ifwecan cost 32,000gns at the yearling sales. If starting favourite it would be significant. However, I would take a watching brief.

Al Baz, Peniaphobia & Yorkshire Relish are all capable of running big races on debut, especially if priced 13/2 & less.

Alan Swinbank sends out his first juvenile of the season with Native Falls. There has been money for this horse. The stable can win on debut and feature fair win and place claims when priced 7/1 & less.

Conclusion: Meritocracy sets the standard and this faster ground should see a bold show. He travels well but there is a slight concern about this stiff finish. Lee may press on and try to gain a winning lead. If prices allow, he is a decent each way bet although I may be tempted to lay the stake in running at short odds as an insurance policy just in case he tires after going a few lengths clear. Chamberlain has ability but a wide draw isn't ideal and although the stable have horses placed second start they often struggle to win. Hickster could improve a good deal if strongly fancied in the betting but  more is needed. Sartori is worth noting in the betting. It wouldn't surprise me to see this colt well backed and if touching big prices on the exchanges may be worth an anticipatory bet in hope of a gamble. If the money comes, he has each way claims. The debutantes have their work cut out but they add to the mix. A few trainers can win on debut and especially so if priced 13/2 & less. I would go for Meritocracy each way and Sartori as a speculative outsider and hope the money comes.