Tuesday 16 April 2013

2:20 Newmarket (17th April) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Conditions Stakes race over 5f on good ground. A small field of five two-year-olds, four with form, three winners, one debutante, a mix of colts & fillies.

A stiffer test for these debut victors. With early-season form thin on the ground Stakes races can be hellishly difficult to call.

Mark Johnston has started this campaign on a positive note with a couple of debut winners, including Split Rock who ran out a tidy winner at Southwell. This son of Shamardal, out of a Listed-winning mare, was professional that day and sure to improve with racing. The problem is trying to assess the merit of that form. He looks a well made colt and will make the fillies look on the weak side. This stable should be respected. 

Tobias Coles is a talented trainer who does well with his small string of two-year-olds. Orton Park, a daughter of Moss Vale, is a good-looking bay and fair yearling purchase at £19,000. She was quite fancied on debut at Kempton and certainly knew her job. Held up, just off the pace, Stevie Donohoe gave a superb ride. A couple of cracks of the whip saw her charge at the line, beating Go Glamorous who looked to have the race won until the last stride. The third won next start and a couple of others have gone well. In truth, the horse who finished third, Kodafine, was an unlucky loser herself after a terribly slow start. Orton Park is likely to progress from that first start and a determined type.

The Trainer of M'Selle, Ron Harris, should have a fair idea where he stands with Orton Park because he trained the runner-up Go Glamorous. Lingfield isn't the easiest of courses for a debutante and especially so from a wide draw. She wasn't best away and ran to her right which for a few strides gave the impression she had little chance. However, this filly sprinted to the first bend and got to the rail. Harris' juvenile is a speedy sort because she had all the others off the bridle and won in comfortable fashion. The form of that race has been franked with the five, sixth & eighth winning although it is worth noting a few of those were in desperate need of experience. The second, Diamond Lady, has been beaten next start although that wasn't a bad race. M'Selle looked inexperienced on debut and will be wiser today. She shouldn't lack for pace. The negative is that she looked a little on the weak side and I just have concerns if it comes to a battle she may falter.

Vodka Time makes his third appearance after a beaten favourite on his last start at Kempton. This bay colt from Indian Haven was fancied and run creditably when second in the Brocklesby. David Evans [trainer] chatted to RUK before this colt's second start and seemed bullish about his chances. At times, you have to take these comments with a pinch of salt but I'm pretty sure they like this youngster. It could well be the case the Kempton race had a touch of class. The winner looked very professional and the unlucky second has her sights set on the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). Time may tell the first five have ability. Evans should know where he stands with regard to Orton Park because he had a debutante thrash Go Glamorous on her next start. He could be a live chance and if well backed it would bring more confidence. 

Clive Britain has never been afraid of a challenge and often his boldness has reaped rewards. Bahamian Heights starts his two-year-old career at Stakes level. This son of Bahamian Bounty cost 50,000gns at the yearling sales out of a listed-winning mare who was trained by Rae Guest. This April foal will need to be smart to beat winning opponents and it would seem a tall order. The majority of their debutantes win when priced 13/2 & less. 

Conclusion: Stakes races can often be a law unto themselves and a tricky race type. The form horses should have the edge over Clive Britain's debutante. However, for many trainers this can be a positive entry if not illogical to many race fans. I wouldn't consider Bahamian Heights unless he is priced 13/2 & less, which I imagine to be unlikely. It is difficult to assess the form of those raced. Split Rock is a decent-looking colt but what he achieved on debut is difficult to know. Only time will tell what he achieved. It is difficult to second guess. However, he does appeal against the two fillies with size and scope. M'Selle ran well on debut and looks to have plenty of pace. I just fear she may be a little bit weak, which could find her out. Stakes races are tough so don't be surprised if the field is strung out. Orton Park is a battling type and done well to win on debut. The form of that race looked to take a knock when Go Glamorous was comprehensively beaten by one of David Evans' newcomers. Ron Harris had stated that he thinks Go Glamorous is bound for the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). This may seem an optimistic statement or could it just be that Evans winner [Majestic Alexander] is a class horse? Vodka Time has been beaten twice but I am pretty sure that Kempton defeat was to talented juveniles. He could go well at a price. I would stick with Vodka Time & Split Rock but it's not a race I would bet. 

Other 2yo races:

3:10 Beverely:

Pointers: Hickster has been entered for a Stake race so positive sign. Captain Midnight has fair win & place claims if priced 13/2 & less. 

3:45 Beverley