Tuesday 5 March 2013

5:30 Kempton (Wednesday, 6th March) Free Horse Racing Tips

A 0-75 rated handicap for 3yo colts and fillies. Just the five runners over this minimum trip with a few familiar faces re-opposing over course and distance.

Modern Lady,  Marvellino & Ada Lovelace raced here about one month ago, when the trio were foiled by the errant Windforpower, who may have his own ideas about racing, but a consistent sort who won by a head. 

Modern Lady has been kept busy this winter. Richard Guest's charge remains in good heart since winning her only race over course and distance when on a handy mark of just 55. She is a speedy type who often races from the front but versatile. There was little between her and Marvellino last start and raised 2lb in the weights with an official rating of 66. Modern Lady runs creditably but there is usually one or two better.

Marvellino has gone up  a pound for his last start when setting the pace and looking the winner for most. Pat Eddery's representative has been a frustrating character at times. One win in fourteen starts proves that point, although he is fast over 4f. From a low draw, Ahern is likely to set the pace and Marvellino will try to hold his lead. 

Ada Lovelace finished fourth that day,  a couple of lengths behind the winner. However, it was a rather disappointing effort when considering her tidy win at Lingfield when trouncing Modern Lady. This daughter of Byron took a marked rise in the weights for that victory, which may have taken its toll. The handicapper has left her unchanged so he's not taking any chances. I couldn't help but feel Crowley gave her a poor ride that day. He sat a little too far off the pace and then ran wide to make his challenge but failed to catch a few nippy types. There is little doubt he intended to finish with a flourish against tiring horses but that tactic didn't go to plan. She started favourite that day and I am sure connections expected much better. Crowley will sit handy and I expect a bold show. I can see this filly being backed.

Of the others, Dangerous Lady has proven a good earner for connections with a placed effort on debut and winning her last two starts. She has been placed well by John Hills. With 7lb extra for that first handicap victory it will be interesting to see how she fairs in what could be a stiffer contest. This daughter of Sleeping Indian has been prone to wandering when put under pressure. Perhaps that was due to inexperience but it is something to consider against these battle-hardened opponents.

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Michael Bell's Riskit Fora Biskit was a relatively expensive yearling buy at £60,000. Wearing the familiar silks of Chris Wright, she showed a pleasing attitude to win on debt at Lingfield over 6f. Compared with the other opposition, she could have the potential to progress with racing, although a mark of 73 is not a light weight. This April foal is drawn well in stall one. The mare raced over sprint distances but failed to win, while the sire, Kodiac, preferred a stiffer test of stamina. I have slight concerns she may struggle for pace in the early stages but a touch of class would see her go well.    

Conclusion: A tricky race to assess. Marvellino and Modern Lady are most likely to press on with an abundance of nature speed. However, both have found winning difficult and they really need races to fall apart to win. Dangerous Age has proven herself to be an able performer in three starts although this could be a stiffer test. Riskit Fora Biskit could be the class horse. A costly purchase, she has top weight for a debut victory, but dropping back to 5f may prove her undoing. I would be tempted to give Ada Lovelace another chance after a frustrating last run. Dean Ivory is a talented trainer and back to her best she could be value if priced about 5/1 and likely to be backed.