Tuesday 4 December 2012

4:20 Kempton (Wednesday, 5th December) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f. Twelve juveniles take part, half raced with little experience, from a mix of large and small stables. Roger Varian has followed in the footsteps of his mentor - the late Michael Jarvis - and proven himself as a true talent. The strike rate for his debutantes is higher than all two-year-old handlers this season. Sherinn is a daughter of Refuse To Bend, a home bred from Darley, racing in the silks of Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum. This February foal raced at Newmarket in mid August, finishing second, after being slightly outpaced for much of the race. The mare won twice for Marcus Tregoning over one mile. This youngster was relatively fancied on debut and plugged on well after looking a touch on the back

foot for most of the race. Whether that was due to inexperience or the need for a greater trip is a matter for debate but a stiffer test will be more suiting in time. The form of that race is encouraging although it hasn't been franked by some of those in behind. The stable have a fantastic strike rate with juveniles on their second start, which gives encouragement. One of the leading candidates with form.

Bellitudo was meant to race on Saturday but the meeting was abandoned at Wolverhampton.  This daughter of Shamardal was a 50,000gns purchase at the breeze-up sales. For one of Marco Botti's debutantes, she was sent off a huge price at 50/1 but ran well to finish 6th. She was well backed next start over 7f at Lingfield but inexperience cost her dear when hitting the frame. The first and second hailed from big stables although the form is still difficult to assess. On breeding this drop back in distance shouldn't prove a problem and from a low draw Sanders is likely to press on. 

Perfect Venture was a good few lengths behind Bellitudo so needs to improve to figure today. It was surprising to see her such a big price that day after a fair debut effort. On balance, I would take a watching brief.

Bouyrin hails from Michael Bell's stable and cost 120,000gns as a yearling. This Irish daughter of Invincible Spirit is out of a sprinting mare who won at Listed class, losing by a short head at Group 3, and at best had an official rating of 105. She drifted markedly in the betting on debut over 7f, where a slow start done few favours and a disappointing performance in ways. This bay filly could improve a good deal on that initial start because there are pointers to ability. The betting will be the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less it would have place claims although Donohoe has very few rides for the stable which could be a negative. 

Al Sahraa & Chandelle Celeste both have race experience but best watched.

The betting will be key for debutantes who are a mix of those who can and those who can't win on their racecourse bows.  

Compton Albion comes from a stable which rarely win on debut and wouldn't figure unless substantially backed. This daughter of Compton Place cost  £30,000, which is a decent buy for a stable who have a small string of juveniles. Best watched.

Another trainer whose two-year-olds often need the run is David Elsworth. It is worth noting that this talented trainer always buys a lovely stamp of a horse. This home bred daughter of Royal Applause went through the sales for 50,000gns and come from a great family. The mare was limited but Last Hooray is the granddaughter of the exceptional Dead Certain, a multiple Group-winner who won the Cheveley Park Stakes Group 1 as a conclusion to an outstanding two-year-old career. Elsworth's juvenile can win on debut but the majority of these are well supported in the betting. However, many are prone to slow starts, which seems a characteristic of their debutantes. An interesting filly but a horse I would rather bet second start.

Eve Johnson Houghton's family bred, own and trained Rectory Lane a daughter of Compton Place. The stable have debut winners although they are infrequent. A relatively cheap purchase from an ordinary family, others make more appeal unless backed to single figure starting price.

Al Gharrafa is the second runner for Marco Botti in this field. This bay filly was a cheap purchase although bred to appreciate this trip. The stable can be difficult to call with their debutantes as a number are tardy from the stalls. Additionally, a wide draw could exasperate this issue. 

Hugo Palmer is an intriguing trainer. He may have a small string of two-year-olds but they have certainly publicised his talent this season. Two In The Pink is a daughter of a grand old mare who has seen many a juvenile winners. The betting is crucial for this stable. I wouldn't take an interest unless substantially backed.

The most interesting debutante is John Gosden's Khobaraa, a home bred for Hamdan Al Maktoum. The stable's two-year-olds can vary greatly in price, which is the best indicator. If priced 13/2 & less could have place claims and even more so if strongly fancied. At this time (Tuesday evening) it is difficult to appreciate strength or weakness in the betting. 

Conclusion: A tricky race in some respects. Sherrin has strong claims from a statistical point of view and should be wiser for that first start. A wide draw isn't ideal, especially if this filly is a touch outpaced. With experience onside I would give her the benefit of the doubt and the Varian stable really understand what it takes to win a race. Bellitudo has shown ability and looks a progressive type. It is difficult to quite get a handle on the form. I often find that Marco Botti's youngster run their best race third start, which certainly give extra interest. She could go well from a low draw and must have fair each way claims. Of the debutantes, Khobaraa has each claims if priced 13/2 & less. The betting will  be the best guide to Bouyrin & Two In The Pink. Both would have claims if substantially backed. Last Hooray could be a talent and may go well second start.