Sunday 2 December 2012

3:20 Kempton (3rd December) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Staked (Div 1) over 1 mile. Ten juveniles take part, the majority lightly raced, four debutantes, with two fillies against a field of colts. A number of fashionable trainers are represented although most - although showing promise - still have something to prove, if not difficult to assess. Saved By The Bell is most proven of those with form. Brian Meehan's representative, an Irish bred son of Teofilo, was relatively fancied on debut racing over 7f. Little went right that day at Warwick where a slow start all but finished this bay colt's chance. The winner Red Avenger has proven to be a talent. This Michael Buckley-owned two-year-old may have been

fancy odds on his second start but it certainly didn't stop him from giving favourite backers a fright in the closing stages, losing by a neck. In truth, the winner always held an advantage. The stable have a fair strike rate at this course and although that form is untested to some extent, going so close suggests this February foal will hit the frame.

Andrew Balding is a trainer who rarely fails to deliver with a fair juvenile and El Buen Turista  could go well today. Another Irish bred, a son of Cape Cross, he cost 47,000gns at the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up Sales (made 40,000gns as a foal). This bay colt is out of a winning mare who raced to Listed/Group 3 level but always held. This youngster was fancied to go well at this course on debut when running over 7f. His stumbling block was inexperience: a tardy start, then taking a keen hold, all infringed on what was still a creditable performance to finish fourth. I'm sure Balding would have ironed out a few problems in these last two weeks. The betting is key for his chances and if priced in single figures I would be confident this horse will make a strong each way selection.

Jeremy Noseda sets a high standard for all trainers to achieve, especially so when considering a powerful string of juveniles. The majority of his debutantes are fancied in the betting. However, that wasn't the case with Silver Dixie, an American bred colt by Union Dixie who cost 50,000gns at the breeze-up sales. Owned by Mrs Susan Roy - racing in her familiar lilac silks - he finished fifth on debut behind easy winner Yarroom. Silver Dixie was slowly into stride and never threatened the leaders. This step up in distance should be a positive but even more important is the betting. Money is always a strong sign for this stable, especially considering they didn't have high hopes on their racecourse bow. If backed to 13/2 & less SP I would take this horse seriously as a fair each way prospect. 

Ashamaly was one place behind Silver Dixie when racing at Wolverhampton. He was quite fancied that day - which was the case on debut - so I would take care not to draw a line through this bay colt just yet. James Tate has proven what a talented trainer he is this season and I have been impressed with the way he handles/places his two-year-olds. Ashamaly is on something of a recover mission. However, he was substantially backed on debut when going close and it would give greater confidence if the money comes. On balance, I would take a watching brief.

Plenum cost a king's ransom at 330,000gns as a yearling. He is owned by B E Nielsen. His trainer, David Lanigan, features a poor win rate on debut and I wander if this son of Shamardal was force a short price in what looked a pretty moderate race. Starting at 3/1 a number of punters may have been tempted by what seemed a a positive sign. However, he most definitely needed the run. Race comments added to this thought with the 'better for race' tag. The stable have a much better strike rate with two-year-olds on their second start although they still can be rather indifferent at times. I couldn't bet on this horse but it would be more encouraging if backed to win. 

Another horse who gave mixed signals on debut was Sweet Force, trained by Marco Botti. This bay colt by Beat Hollow was a cheap yearling purchase (2,200gns) although a home bred. There was plenty of money for this horse on debut  (backed from 6/1 - 4/1) but had no luck when badly hampered at the start. He had no chance after. That betting guide suggests there is better to come. A high percentage of Botti's fancied debutantes go on to win in their juvenile career. A difficult one to assess but another to respect if backed to 13/2 & less. 

The debutantes will need to be fit and ready to bustle up those with experience although they are of interest in their own way.

David Elsworth doesn't feature the best win rate with his juveniles on their first start but Emerging is quite well bred and cost a pretty penny fetching 65,000gns at the yearling sales.  The mare - Pan Galactic - raced in France and won on debut and place on four further starts at Listed class, all narrow losses. The stable don't give confidence on debut and for that reason I would take a watching brief but I can see this youngster winning a few races in time.

Little Buxted is another I would watch. Robert Mills is a fantastic trainer but his two-year-olds rarely win on debut although a number have crept into a place a big odds. 

Daniel Kubler is still finding his feet with a small string of juveniles. Rosaceous was withdrawn from sales as a foal, yearling and two-year-old. One of two fillies in the field, she is half sister to Kadoodd (120,000gns yearling). This home bred is out of a mare owned by Mr & Mrs Middlebrook. Best watched.

Teebee's Oasis is likely to be the strongest of the debutantes. This home bred is owned by George Strawbridge out of a winning mare who enjoyed a trip. John Gosden's juveniles are capable of winning on debut and should be respected as fair each way chances if priced 13/2 & less. The betting is the best guide to this fillies chance although I would prefer others unless backed to favouritism, which would speak volumes.

Conclusion: A tricky race where the betting will tell the story for most. Saved By The Bell sets the standard and should go well. I would favour El Buen Turista as a strong each way bet. Balding does well at this course and I can see this colt progressing from that initial start. Silver Dixie & Sweet Force need to improve a great deal but if fancied in the betting should be respected. They both have each way claims if priced 13/2 & less SP. Teebee's Oasis may have claims on debut. However her chances would be dramatically improved if starting favourite. Emerging is worth keeping an eye on for the future.