Thursday 29 November 2012

6:05 Kempton (29th November) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Median Auction Maiden Stakes over 7f. A sizeable field of thirteen juveniles, a mix of colts and fillies, most lightly races. The most likely protagonists hail from leading trainers while a number of the debutantes - from less fashionable yards - will struggle to be competitive. Running Bull, Two No Bids, Balatina & Hannah's Turn are best watched. Martial Art, trained by Andrew Balding, has run five times and runner-up on three occasions. This chestnut son of Compton Place has run some sterling races losing by a short head on debut and a couple of other defeats by a length or less. A 26,000gns yearling purchase, Jackie & George Smith will feel they

have a fair buy although cursing their misfortune. This colt has enough ability to win most maidens and has an official rating of 82. His latest performance at Lingfield showed a willing attitude and an suiting for the artificial surface. A leading chance.

Mick Channon's Imperial Spirit has the most experience with six runs to his name. A gelding, he has been tried over a variety of distances from the minimum trip to today's 7f. Charles Bishop claims a valuable five pounds although an official rating of 72 suggests further improvement will be needed. 

Mac's Superstar has been unfancied on both starts to date, finishing second from last at Yarmouth on debut but showed promise last time over course and distance when hitting the frame. This American bred son of Elusive City was an expensive yearling purchase at 75,000gns. There was money for this gelding that day (33/1 - 20/1) and losing by less than two lengths was no disgrace. The Fanshawe juveniles often improve with racing and the form of that race - although difficult to assess - gives hope. 

Another of today's runners was behind Mac's Superstar. Atlantis City was an expensive purchase by Peter & Ross Doyle at 120,000euros. A son of Elusive City, out of a winning French mare, he was quite fancied on debut but may have lost his chance by being difficult to load, dwelling and well in rear, before plugging on but finding trouble in running. It would probably be a mistake to rule out this youngster after that initial start and there could be much better to come. The betting is likely to be a key pointer. If substantially backed, I would expect a much improved performance.

Of the others with race experience, Aloha was a mighty price for one of Roger Varian's two-year-olds on debut. The stable's best prospects are usually fancied to go well and the price of this bay filly on debut suggested it held little hope of winning. The main negative is that this is a home bred, which are often be slower to come to hand. The mare raced in the familiar green and white hooped silks of Miss K Rausing but needed a trip. Unless substantially backed this February foal is likely to make a better three-year-old. 

Good As New was a £500 yearling purchase although a home bred for Lady Juliet Tadgell, trained by Chris Wall. Two poor efforts suggest handicaps would be more suiting.

Two debutantes stand out from those making their racecourse bows. Rome a 40,000gns yearling by Holy Roman Emperor is trained by Sir Henry Cecil and owned by Heart Of The South Racing. The mare raced in Ireland and although attempting Listed class finished a maiden. The stable's juveniles feature fair win and place claims on debut when priced 13/2 & less SP. It is never easy for debutantes to win on turning tracks and I would imagine - if relatively short in the betting - that bigger odds will be available in-running. A horse to respect but one I would rather watch. 

Mystical Sapphire hails from Jo Crowley's stable, who do wonders with the small string of two-year-olds. However, this home bred - from an unraced dam - was a £500 yearling purchase. Not a horse I would want to lay at huge odds but a watching brief.

Conclusion: The debutantes look to have a tall order against a few experienced juveniles. The best of those making their racecourse bow could be Sir Henry Cecil's Rome. The stable can win on debut if relatively fancied but I would take a watching brief as inexperience on a turning course against a few hard-fit opponents looks a tough call. Martial Art will not be much of a price but ticks a lot of boxes. With an official rating of 82 he sets a high standard for a race of this nature. The horse to beat. Mac's Superstar is an interesting runner after showing ability last time although still a pretty big price. A difficult horse to assess. Atlantis City could be something of a dark horse and it wouldn't surprise me if this expensive yearling was backed. However, I feel that the betting needs to be a positive to give most encouragement. I would be tempted to back at speculative odds (if available) and hope he is backed for a no-lose bet. Money would suggest a big run is on the cards.