Thursday 22 November 2012

5:40 Wolverhampton (23rd November) Free Horse Racing Tips

Maiden Auction Stakes over 7f 32y round this turning track. An eleven-strong field of raced juveniles bar an intriguing debutante from the William Haggis' stable, racing in the silks of Cheveley Park Stud. The tissue betting would suggest only a handful are of interest with the majority pretty moderate horses based on recent form. Storma Norma, a daughter of Royal Applause, has been kept busy this season with seven runs and placed on a number of occasions. Tim Easterby has applied the hood first time. It will be interesting to see how she fares on the all-weather

surface after showing her best form on testing ground on the turf. In such a poor race, well drawn, and off a handy weight, she has claims and could well hit the frame although after so many attempts there is probably one or two who are more talented.

William Jarvis is a trainer I have a lot of time for because he places his horses to win and does particularly well on the artificial surfaces. Jodie's Gem is a gelding by Kheleyf and a progressive horse. He showed ability when finishing third at Yarmouth on heavy ground when a few lengths behind Half A Person. He looked a major threat that day and only tired in the closing stages suggesting this trip will be more suiting. A similar performance was seen at Kempton when placed behind odds-on shot Birdlover. Graham Lee takes the ride for the first time although a wide draw isn't ideal. Jarvis will most likely instruct his able jockey to sit in a handy position. The most guaranteed and a fair bet if touching each way prices, which looks unlikely. The horse to beat.

Another trainer who I respect on the all-weather is Sylvester Kirk. He has the knack of popping up when you least expect it and *Mojo Bear could be a live chance. This January foal was a cheap purchase but comes from a decent family and certainly showed ability when narrowly defeated at Leicester over 6f. Stepping up in distance looked the answer when racing over today's course and distance but she still had the mindset of sprinting and pulled too hard. With a low weight, the apprentice taking off a valuable three pounds, it wouldn't be surprise to see this trainer-owned youngster take the lead. A fair each way bet at price to chance.

For many, the most interesting juvenile in the field will be Lady Malet. Cheveley Park Stud rarely keep horses in training if they have limited ability and you have to consider they had ample opportunity to pass this filly on if poor. This race wouldn't take much winning. However, it is never easy for juveniles to win on their first start especially against horses with experience and statistically turning tracks are tough for those with inexperience. A low draw may be a blessing or a curse depending on her start. The mare enjoyed a trip and managed to win once in her career when trained by Sir Michael Stoute in the ownership of Chevely Park. The betting suggests a big run is expected and the stable can win on debut but feature no more than a fair win rate although decent place claims. At short odds I would be tempted to take a watching brief because a tardy start would make this very hard work. This type of horse will fall into two categories: easy winner or poor loser. 

Of the outsiders, Rex Whistler showed pace on debut when running on testing ground at Newcastle. This bay gelding finished last but one of the more expensive buys going through the yearling sales for 20,000gns. Much more is needed but Julie Camacho's two-year-old often slip by whether talented or not and at huge odds looks the type to show some pace from a low draw.

Conclusion: A moderate race with the majority of the field needing marked improvement. Jodie's Gem looks the most likely winner but isn't helped by a wide draw which in theory shouldn't cause a problem if Lee is intent on getting a decent rail position but it can tame a horse's finish. A fair each way bet if prices allow but that looks unlikely. The horse to beat. Storma Norma should hit the frame but may find one too good. Mojo Bear could be a fair each way bet off a handy weight but needs to settle after pulling last time over course and distance. Kirk does well at this course and could be a dark horse. Lady Malet is a tricky horse to assess. Both stable and connections are pure class but this turning track is a worry, especially at short odds. If betting, I would be tempted to watch the start and play in-running because if slow away it would be a tall order. The stable have fair place claims with fancied debutantes although the win rate is nothing out of the ordinary. An easy winner or disappointing loser. I would take a watching brief. Rex Whistler could touch shorter odds in-running but beyond that point it is anyone's guess whether the Camacho horse can strive for the line.