Tuesday 4 September 2012

8:00 Kempton (5th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Fillies' Maiden Stakes over 6f. 

This has the look of a fairly competitive heat. Jubilee Diamond sets the mark after a solid debut at Sandown when second to Upward Spiral. The third horse, Give Way Nelson, has franked the form with a sterling effort at Wolverhampton when placed on her next start. This daughter of Redback - owned by Julie Wood - was once again behind Upward Spiral when venturing to Royal Ascot and competing in the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). She never looked happy that day and flashed her tail in the closing stages to finish a disappointing fourteenth. You can't help but imagine Hannon expected much more. On the balance, that initial start gives Jubilee Diamond strong claims and if Ascot saw a below-par effort she could take this with ease.

However, it might be a mistake to consider this a one-horse race because there are a few candidate which make some appeal, although probably best considered as each way selections.

I'm quite interested in Wildcrafting. Reading the form - six of six - it doesn't look the most appealing starting point. But there was much to like about that debut effort at Wolverhampton. This daughter of Exceed And Excel is an early foal and a good-looking chestnut. She was pretty weak in the betting that day but moved with real authority for most of the race, travelling by far the best in the field and touched short odds before tiring out of contention in the final furlong. It wouldn't be a surprise to learn this chestnut filly was in need of the run and if sharper for that racecourse bow could go well at a price. Experience counts for a lot around this turning course and from a low-ish draw she could be a surprise package. 

Of the other form horses Royal Guinevere ran much better on her second start. Dean Ivory's two-year-olds can often be transformed from one run to their next and connection clearly considered their chances that day because this daughter of Invincible Spirit was substantially backed (33/1 - 12/1) and ran a cracking race. That was a tight little race and it was no disgrace to finish fourth, behind Just Charlie who is a fair sort. Whether this step back up in distance will bring about further improvement is a matter of opinion although she is bred to enjoy a trip. The Ivory juveniles often slip under the radar against the more fashionable stables and while this expensive (62,000gns breeze-up) purchase may have a stiff task, if drifting to speculative odds, she could sneak a place. 

Of the debutantes Spokeswoman is worthy of respect. Saeed Bin Suroor has a fantastic 39% strike rate with his two-year-olds at this course over the last five years and a healthy level-stake profit. The betting is probably the best guide to this horse's chance and if priced 13/2 & less could go well. 

Koala Bear is only the second juvenile to be raced by James Fanshawe. This home bred for Lady Halifax is worthy of note as she held an entry for the Lowther Stakes (Group 2). Debutant winners are a pretty rare for this stable and it usually takes one of their leading lights to attain such a feat. An interesting filly who may have potential but probably best watched.

The others are best watched unless substantially supported.

Conclusion: Jubilee Diamond will be many people's ideas of the winner. If at the top of her game she will most likely win. She has already set a level which most juveniles would struggle to equal. However, at short odds, returning from a lengthy spell on the sidelines, there are one or two question marks. I would be tempted to look for an each way alternative. Wildcrafting is a difficult horse to assess because to win this race she needed to have been unfit on debut. It could well be the case she was. The weakness in the betting suggested the stable didn't hold out much hope of the win. Anyone who watched her that day couldn't have helped but been impressed. This daughter of Exceed And Excel travelled by far the best in the field, leading into the final furlong, only dropping out in the closing stages. If that was a result of lacking fitness I would be expecting a big run today. At speculative odds I would be tempted to have an each way bet because it wouldn't be a surprise to see this filly substantially backed. Spokeswoman hails from a stable you must always fear on the all weather. Saeed Bin Suroor has the knack of stealing a win even against talented opposition. However, it will take a decent juvenile to beat the favourites on debut and although respectful of this entrant I would take a watching brief. Royal Guinevere could sneak a place a speculative odds. This is an expensive filly for the Ivory yard and they are wise old owls. Koala Bear is clearly held in some regard by the stable although they do not feature the best strike rate on debut which tempers enthusiasm.