Thursday 30 August 2012

5:30 Salisbury (31st August) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Maiden Auction Stakes race over 6f on soft ground.

Testing conditions for this field of nine runners with just over half with racing experience. 

The strangely named Squeeze My Brain has a fine chance today. This breeze-up purchase costing 30,000gns is one of the cheaper buys for Quatar Racing Limited. This daughter of Lawman ran in a strong maiden over 7f at Goodwood when finishing sixth. She was rather keen in the early stage and only tired in the final hundred yards. Dropping back in distance shouldn't be a problem on this testing ground and I would expect a bold show. Ralph Beckett has a great strike rate at this course and that initial experience will be invaluable on what could be a tough task for many of the debutantes.

''This sounds dangerous - 
 Squeeze My Brain To Win''

Richard Hannon is double handed here. The stable are always to be respected with their two-year-olds and Salisbury has been a good hunting ground in its time. Lilbourne Eliza is partnered by Richard Hughes who looks to have a firm hold on the jockeys' championship. Clearly his father-in-law will be doing his best to help pave the way to success and while this daughter of Elusive City could well be the better of this pair it never pays to be too dogmatic with this stable. 

Their other representative, Ottauquechee, has started big odds in a couple of stiff maiden over 7f at grade one courses. This bay filly has been far from disgraced although a little difficult to assess. This is a drop in class and you would have to imagine connections will expect a more purposeful effort today. 

Of the others with form, Marchwood has been on the sidelines for over one hundred days. This son of Assertive has been consistent if not limited to some degree. He is a fair-looking juvenile and Stan Moore knows how to get the best out of his youngsters. You have to consider he  may have suffered an injury to be away from the track for over three months. The betting will indicate his well being and a major drift in the market would ring alarm bells. On balance, he needs to have progressed to have a fighting chance. I would rather take a watching brief and re-assess thereafter.

Astrum needs to be transformed by the application of the first-time blinkers. This grey gelding was quite a costly purchase for the Millman's at 30,000gns. He looked unfit when running over course and distance and although this stable often go well with juveniles on their second start it doesn't look the most alluring of bets.

Keene's Pointe is another juvenile who needs to sprout wings. John Hills has been noted as sending some of his better juveniles to race at Windsor on debut and they often go well on their second start. However, unless this son of Avonbridge disappointed at Bath he is best watched. 

Of the debutantes, Russian Royale is worthy of note for trainer Stuart Kittow. This bay filly is a home bred but was sent through the sales ring to qualify for such races, which is often a clever move by connections. Kittow has a small string of two-year-olds but he is a talented handler and they can run big races on debut. His juveniles usually show signs of inexperience but finish their races with relish.

Could go well at a price and hit the frame.

Another trainer who can win with his debutantes is David Simcock. Breton Rock was entered to run at Yarmouth but withdrawn on the day so should be fit and ready. If priced 13/2 & less he has fair win and place claims.

Delwyn was a cheap purchase and trained by Marcus Tregoning. The stable do not feature the best strike rate with juveniles making their racecourse bow and best watched.

Conclusion: Testing ground will make this a slog and experience will been a positive. I like Squeeze My Brain who ran in a strong maiden where the form has been franked a number of times. Beckett does well at this course and this drop in distance shouldn't be a problem. I can see this youngster making a bold bid from the front and it will take a fair sort to beat her. The betting will be the best guide to the chances of Lilbourne Eliza. It would be significant if she started favourite. I am not keen on Marchwood who needs to progress to figure and has question marks after a lengthy absence. Russian Royal could go well at a price but may have to settle for a place at best. Breton Rock would have claims if priced 13/2 & less.