Sunday 23 September 2012

3:50 Kempton (24th September) Free Horse Racing Tips

An EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 7F.

The second division on the card. Godolphin have a number of two-year-old representatives at this meeting.

Intiba is a home bred son of Street Cry trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. This bay filly was fancied to run a big race on debut at Salisbury in the hands of Frankie Dettori but beaten by a what looked a talented juvenile in Lanansaak. The pair held Rainbow Beauty who is no world beater but capable of winning a maiden. That experience will see this youngster well today. Saeed Bin Suroor does exceptionally well with his juveniles on the all-weather and from a statistical point alone has a superb win and place chance. The averages suggest this horse should be priced just over even money. A live contender with Dettori retaining the ride.

The other Godolphin runner hails from Mamood Al Zarooni's stable. Breezily - a daughter of Hard Spun- hasn't been seen for over two months since finishing last at Folkestone when racing over 5f. This bay filly wasn't the most expensive of yearlings but fancied in the betting that day. With such a poor showing it isn't beyond the realms she disappointed on debut although you have to take a leap of faith better will be seen. On breeding this step up to 7f looks more suiting. The betting is the best guide. If priced 13/2 & less it would give greater confidence. 

Of the other form horses, Reveille is certainly worth forgiving a poor run at Epsom last time. Hughie Morrison doesn't have many strongly fancied debutantes but this daughter of Sakhee's Secret was very well backed for her racecourse bow at Chepstow. A canny purchase at 28,000gns she had a hard-fought battle with Mick Channon's favourite in testing conditions. Many a judge considered that was a pretty hard race for a first experience and it may have tainted her when disappointing next start. This youngster looked all at sea on the course and didn't seem happy from start to finish. I would conclude this chestnut filly is much better than that poor showing. If fancied in the betting it would be a sign of confidence. Conversely, a weakness would set alarm bells ringing. Morrison's first few juvenile runners of the season usually go on to win and being so short in the betting on both starts suggests this filly has ability.

Chamtille was a remote second last time and best watched.

July Waits showed next to no ability on debut and would need to be substantially backed to give any hope.

La Danza is another juvenile who needs to progress markedly on her debut effort. Alan Bailey's two-year-olds are worth noting in the betting but unless seriously backed is best watched.

Richard Hannon has his juveniles attaining the highest of standards and should be respected. Three Choirs has run fair races to date but needs to improve to win a race of this nature 

Of the debutantes, a few of these hail from leading trainers. Playbill is trained by Sir Michael Stoute and owned by Lady Rothschild. This stable's juvenile can be rather hit and miss on debut although a good few have run well at this course. The betting is key. If priced 13/2 & less this daughter of Medicean could register although a wide draw is far from ideal. Unless substantially backed I would rather watch and learn a little more.

Henry Candy is a trainer who often slips under the radar and it is encouraging to see Pearl Bloodstock Ltd making the most of his talents. Pearl Street is a half-sister the talented Peter Martins so one to keep on the right side. There is usually money around for the stable's better juveniles who can win on debut although - in general - are more likely to hit the frame and improve for the run. The betting is usually a very good judge of the Pearl Bloodstock Ltd juveniles and if strongly fancied would be of interest.

The market is similarly the best judge of Luca Cumani's Sharqawlyah. The stable can be very hit and miss with their debutantes even when fancied in the betting. In past years they feature fair place claims when supported but I would have to take a watching brief.

RocksillaSporting Club Girl come from stables which often need the run.

Conclusion: Experience counts for a lot on a turning course and especially difficult for horses making their racecourse bow from a wide draw. From a statistical point of view Intiba is the talking horse. Saeed Bin Suroor does brilliantly with this juveniles on the all-weather and this filly will take all the beating. The main contender could well be Hughie Morrison's Reveille. She ran well on debut but disappointed at Epsom. You have to keep the faith to bet and unless fair odds are available I would be careful. However, Morrison does very well with his juveniles and most go on to win a race. That last run was too bad to be true and better should be expected. A question mark or two, but sound each way claims if back to best. The betting will tell the story for Breezily. If she is backed to 13/2 & less SP it would be a sign of ability. The debutantes have their work cut out. Playbill may have similar chances if fancied in the betting. However, the stable's juveniles often improve with racing. Pearl Street comes from a canny trainer/owner combination. I would take a watching brief unless seriously backed. It usually takes the better stable juveniles to win at the first time of asking. The other horses are best watched.