Sunday 1 July 2012

6:40 Windsor (2nd July) Free Horse Racing Tips

A Fillies' Auction Maiden Stakes over 5f 10y on good to firm ground.

A fascinating race.

On form Hoyam comes here with what looks to be an outstanding chance. This daughter of Royal Applause was held in some regard when making her debut over course and distance. Connections must have been surprised this good-looking bay didn't prove victorious. However, inexperience was her Achilles' heel with a tardy start and running green which saw the once-race Miss Diva more streetwise and fleet footed. Bell's representative was then sent to Royal Ascot to compete in Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2). Spencer played his tactically hand, sitting off the pace, unleashing a late eye-catching run from this 55,000gns breeze-up purchase. She finished a gallant second, losing by one length, beating a number of talented juveniles in the process. Clearly, connection will have their sights set on more lofty prizes, such as the Cherry Hinton Stakes (Group 2), and this will be viewed a basic stepping stone. Failure would be a disappointment such future goals. In truth, this youngster is likely to win. However, for a race of this grade, there may be one or two juveniles with ability.

*Therapeutic is a capable filly for this grade. After running in a very strong maiden auction on debut, she displayed a gritty attitude at Beverley when behind Dream Scenario. Scott Dixon's charge looked to hold a strong hand at Musselburgh next time out. However, that turned out to be a fascinating race where James Bethell's Starbotton simply out sprinted, then finished off those chasing in vein with a determined victory. Therapeutic paid the price for trying to keep up and tired in the closing stages to finished out of the frame. She is better than that. In an everyday race of this type I would consider this daughter of Milk It Mick a great each way bet. There is a fighting chance she will hit the frame but this a is a tough race which tempers enthusiasm.

Of the other form horses, Sand And Deliver is a gorgeous deep-chested daughter of Royal Applause. Peter Crate (owner, breeder & trainer) will definitely find a race for this filly. She showed good pace on debut at Sandown before tiring, then fairly sprint from the stalls over course and distance last time on soft ground. In truth, both her and Star Up In The Sky went much too quick for conditions and the pair were sitting ducks when City imagine cruised by in the latter stages. The winner has since won a novice stakes. A wide draw isn't ideal but this faster ground may be in her favour. I can imagine Mongan will be holding fire today or at least saving something for the finish. A fast juvenile but probably best watched.

Andrew Balding is a superb trainer of two-year-olds and Hot Secret has ability, if not a little difficult to assess. This April foal was quite fancied in a competitive race at Leicester on debut but lost all chance with a slow start. The hood was applied at Warwick and connections must have fancied their chances when they saw the favourite struggling for pace. However, she was no match for Knight Charm. The stable do well at this track. A low draw may not be in her favour as she doesn't seem the quickest into stride although I can imagine Fortune will want to sit handy. This daughter of Sakhee's Secret may be better than her form suggests.

Dusty Storm caught my eye on debut and could go well. I am a big fan of Ed McMahon and owners R L Bedding never have  a poor horse in training. This daughter of Kyllachy cost 30,000gns as a yearling but went off relatively unfancied on debut at Thirsk. It wouldn't surprise me if this chestnut filly was slightly short of work. What struck me was the way she travelled until the closing stages. It was also telling that Gibbons was keen to ease her down when their chance had gone. The form of that race has been franked on a number of occasions and if fitter for that initial start I would expect a big run. A relative wide draw isn't ideal but with such a fluent stride Franny Norton should be able to work his magic. The betting is the best guide to this ones chances, although with such a short priced favourite we can give some leeway. If priced 10/1 & less I would expect a big run. A sound each way bet. She could be a decent juvenile.

Little Miss Zuri and Jackpot competed at Royal Ascot when fielded in the Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) albeit at huge odds odds. Never figured. Normally, this grade would be a drop in class but with the likes of Hoyam in the line-up they are best watched.

Of the debutantes, it is intriguing to see whether Clean Blow actually takes part. David Brown's youngster has been rather elusive with endless engagements but then withdrawn on at least three occasions, most probably due to soft ground conditions. This daughter of Street Boss (USA) was purchased by John Fretwell for £32,000 at the yearling sales. He has been relatively fancied on the betting exchanges and with such interest presumably a faster surface should suit and connection must be hopeful she has ability. Must be fit and ready but inexperience makes this a task on debut.

Our  Three Graces was a cheap breeze-up purchase at £5,000. Unless substantially backed I would take a watching brief.

*Dawn Catcher is drawn widest of all and has her work cut out.

Conclusion: Connections will be disappointed if Hoyam doesn't win in style as this is a dramatic drop in class. After a fine debut over course and distance she was well backed at Royal Ascot just before the off. That performance is beyond anything this field has shown. Perhaps the only fear is that she will be outpaced. However, I would suggest that Spencer employed a waiting tactic last time, which I have seen him entertain on a few decent juveniles. At no point did this filly look outpaced, rather settled to finish with vigour, which is often a winning move against two-year-olds who pressed on a stride too fast. I would expect a big run and she must take  some beating although one or two fillies have something about them. Therapeutic has enough ability to win a race and is better than her last performance. She could sneak a place, but you may be crossing your fingers for the favourite to disappoint to win. Sand And Delivery is a good looker and fast. But it is difficult to assess her runs to date. I would be tempted to watch and learn. Hot Secret is a tricky one to assess. Both runs suggest ability and time may tell she is a fair sort. She may run well and hit the frame. I'm intrigued by Dusty Storm. Ed McMahon is a canny trainer and I liked the way she travelled on debut. She has plenty of pace. If improving from that racecourse bow she could be a fair each way wager. The rest are best watched. The favourite looks a tough nut to crack but it is strange how these supposed easier races can turn out to be far from straightforward. Hoyam looks a class act but not my type of bet.