Monday 23 July 2012

2:20 Yarmouth (24th July) Free Horse Racing Tips

A maiden Auction Stakes over 6f 3y on good ground.

A large field for this restricted event, the majority of the field have raced with half a dozen debutantes from stables which generally need the run.

Vestibule, a chestnut daughter of Kheleyf, is a fair juvenile for this grade. If not for bumping into a few talents along the way, she would almost certainly have lost her maiden tag. The form of her Newbury race reads well. Eve Johnson Houghton has stated that this  £5,000 yearling purchase would be seen to better effect on fast ground, which makes those performances on softer conditions all the more meritorious. With five runs under the belt, that experience will be a boost on this straightforward course. There is always the fear that any juvenile with a few hard races may regress and that would be the only reason this little filly will not run a big race at a handy weight. On balance, this looks an ideal opportunity and if prices allow a decent each way wager.

However, there are a few interesting form horses in opposition which are deserving of respect.

Golden Beau is on a recovery mission after disappointing when a short-priced favourite at Hamilton. This son of Gold Away ran in what has turned out to be a hot maiden on debut and then ran with credit on his second start at huge odds. This gelding has shown enough ability to suggest he can go close here although he is a tricky customer. Perhaps there was something amiss at Hamilton but it could also have been due to a change of tactics. In truth, he was a little keen that day and pressed for the lead, which varied from his former runnings where, if anything, Stubbs' youngster struggled for pace, doing his best work at the line. Most horses need to run at their own pace, he looks a plodder rather than a sprinter, and I can see him being held up today. On this faster ground there may be a chance this bay will be outpaced. A difficult horse to assess. If capable, I would expect a late charge but a juvenile I would probably rather watch than bet. One to respect from a talented trainer.

Not Now Blondie ran well on debut at Yarmouth when racing over the minimum trip. This chestnut filly looked well in her coat and ran on with vigour behind Pixilated. Chris Dwyer is a canny trainer and he must have been pleased the way she ran to the line, suggesting an extra furlong would reap rewards. However, connections stepped up markedly in class when visiting Newmarket on her second start. Perhaps the ground was too testing but it looked a tough task and this daughter of Notnowcato was eclipsed. In truth, that first race at Yarmouth was terribly restricted, almost on a par with plating class. This is her grade and at speculative odds it wouldn't be a surprise to see a better performance but whether she can live with some of these is a matter of opinion.

Joint top weighted Fit For A King could be another horse to show his last run to be all wrong. This son of Royal Applause showed a glimmer of ability on debut at Windsor over 6f.  After a tardy start, outpaced, he ran on with hope suggesting there was better to come. John Best's two-year-olds are often seen to good effect on their second start and this 23,000euro yearling purchase was supported. Whether it was track, ground, or both, this bay colt never looked happy trailing home third from last. It might be a mistake to think that is all he has to offer. Very difficult to have a strong opinion - but a horse which may go well at speculative odds.

*Bountybeamadam surprised me when running a stormer at Newbury. Cosgrove made a bold bid from the front and for much of the way George Baker's charge looked to have the field in trouble. This daughter of Bahamian Bounty doesn't lack for speed and should appreciate these drying conditions. Time  has told that second effort at Salisbury was a decent race. The second and fifth have both won and in many ways this could be a drop in class. There is a possibility her front-running tactics last time gave advantage. However, this March foal is a speedy type who is likely to bole along in front and could well have many of this field struggling to keep tabs. Worthy of respect.

On a form line through Momalorka there probably isn't a great deal between Sound Of Guns and the above mentioned. This 20,000gns yearling was fancied to run well on debut, which suggests this daughter of Acclamation is held in some regard. Ed Walker's stable are good judges and their juveniles often go well on their second start, especially when fancied in the betting. With Faithfilly coming from the same camp, they could well have a line with Vestibule. If improving a length or two, a big run should be expected.

The majority of the debutantes hail from stables which usually progress with racing. Hugo Palmer's Star Sequence would be one of the more likelier types but best watched. It would be a surprise if this didn't go to a juvenile with experience.

Conclusion: An intriguing race in its own way. A large field and plenty of pace will have many of these toiling in the first few furlongs. Vestibule is a decent juvenile at this grade and if at her best must have sound each way claims. There is always a slight fear of regression but I can imagine connections will view this race as their best chance yet. Sound Of Guns could go well. It took serious money to be such a short price on debut, especially for backers to fancy their chances against a number of proven horses. That could be a significant pointer and I would expect a bold show. If substantially backed, or favourite, it would be a surprise to see Walker's juvenile out of the frame. Bountybeamadam will probably set the pace and could appreciate this faster surface. I'm still not sure if that last run slightly flattered but the Salisbury contest holds some merit and she looks a determined type and Baker's juveniles have been in cracking form of late. An each way candidate. Golden Beau  & Fit For A King have something to prove after pretty poor runs.  Both are deserving of respect and could go well at speculative odds. A competitive race for this grade and it will take a decent juvenile to win. Vestibule, Bountybeamadam and Sound Of Guns are worthy each way selections, while Golden Beau and Fit For A King could be worth a speculative punt.