Tuesday 3 April 2012

6:00 Wolverhampton (4th April) Free Horse racing Tips

A fillies' maiden auction over this turning 5f. A field of eight two-year-olds, a couple with prior experience. All juveniles here are cheap purchases, most from unfashionable stables, featuring a poor strike rate on debut.

Poetic Princess will go off favourite. This daughter of Byron has turned two and ran with encouragement on debut at Kempton, a rag priced 25/1. A small bay filly who will probably be at her best early season, belied her odds finishing third behind Woodland Mill. Tony Culhane made a bright start from the stalls but soon settled just off the lead, if not a touch outpaced. In the closing stages she rallied with enthusiasm. It was noticeable that her jockey was at pains to give her a considerate introduction, a hands and heels ride. On sparse form, the one to beat.

From the same race, Dreamy Ciara was left trailing some lengths behind. This daughter of Multiplex is a big filly. She will certainly dwarf the favourite. A wide draw didn't do her any favours, however, she was scrubbed along, completely outpaced. There is a chance everything happened too quickly and that experience will see a different running today. Although a fair-looking juvenile, she has a pronounced running action to the point of lumbering. Juveniles can improved beyond all recognition from their first to second start but even against a field of debutantes I would would be fearful she will be outpaced from the start and face an up hill task. On balance, Poetic Princess would seem to hold the aces.

So what are we to make of the debutante opposition?

David Evan fields two juveniles in this field and it may be wise to keep an eye on the betting for Shop Til You Drop, owned by his wife. This stable are cunning as a fox and the status of first & second string can often be taken with a pinch of salt. A daughter of Camacho was a cheap purchase at £1,400. The betting is the best guide; if heavily backed could go well.

Derek Haydn Jones can spring a surprise or two with his juveniles although he features a poor strike rate on debut. Schottische, a daughter of Pastoral Pursuits, cost just 800gns. The stable can often pop up with a big priced winner on their second start but best watched here. Also, breeding suggests a stiffer test of stamina.

Myzamour is trained by Stan Moore who needs little introduction as a trainer of juveniles. A cheap buy at 1,500euros, this daughter of Azamour is owned by the trainer. Breeding suggests a greater test of stamina is needed and the fact she has been entered for a selling race at Musselburgh is a negative. The stable feature a fair strike rate at the course but, generally, struggle to win on debut even though the public perception may differ.

Jamnean hails from John Holt's stable which has a small string of juveniles. Another cheap purchase at £3,000. He is a capable trainer but this daughter of Byron is difficult to assess and a watching brief.

Mark Brisbourne is a trainer I hold in high regard. He knows how to train a winning juvenile and has done so on many occasions often with bargain buys. Owner, Peter Mort, could not have found a more willing horse in Belle Royal. Windsor Rose is related to last year's stablemate Pendle Lady who won at odds of 40/1 second time out. Costing 6,000gns, this chestnut filly could well be worth a few quid on her second start at speculative odds. However, Brisbournes' debut winners are as rare as hen's teeth. That added to a poor win rate at the course suggests a win on her racecourse bow is unlikely.

Another stable with a similarly poor win rate on debut is Mark Usher. *Ishi Honest, an American-bred daughter of Ishiguru, is best watched. 

Conclusion: By all accounts Poetic Princess is the horse to beat. She looks to hold the big, lumbering Dreamy Ciara. There was a lot to like about Hughes' filly on debut. A small lively juvenile who pinged from the stalls. finsihing with hands and heels. The problem is assessing the level of form. A couple of horses which came from this race ran at selling grade, one taking second spot. However, at such short odds you need to guarantee the form has some merit. Time will tell. This race will not take much winning and Poetic Princess has ''seemingly'' every advantage. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a tidy win but for me it is still a time to tread careful. Most of the debutantes do not inspire. Myzamour's entry for a selling race could be a negative. Mark Brisbourne, Derek Haydn Jones & Mark Usher's juveniles hold such poor records on debut that you could have little confidence. All have much greater statistical chance on their second start, often at fancy odds. Money for Shop Til You Drop could well be significant. Evans is a cunning old fox and they like to hold an edge. Jamnean may have a some chance but it would be clutching at straws. Poetic Princess is the most likely winner but at restricted odds is best watched.