Wednesday 6 October 2010

Wednesday's Thoughts

3:40 Nottingham
Audacious, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, improved immensely on his debut run at Newmarket, holding every chance on his second start in a competitive maiden over 1m at Doncaster. The form of that race is very strong and it was the mark of a fair horse that this son of Motivator was given a hands and heels ride by Ryan Moore. Audacious will be primed for a big run today and it will take a talented juvenile to beat this bay colt. The main danger comes from Halfsin, an attractive colt by Haafhd and a good buy at 18,000gns. Botti's representative showed promise on debut, when running on with purpose to finish behind the capable Tick Tock Lover. And progressed when running from a wide draw at Newmarket, beaten in a battling performance, in what looked to be a good race, with the first three clear of the field. Halfsin has a slightly pronounced knee action suggesting this soft ground will not be a problem although extremes of going are always a concerned. There is little doubt connections hold this two-year-old in high regard and, if price allows, a decent each-way bet. Specific Gravity was fancied on debut and backed to 5/2 but finished a disappointing 4th. This colt by Dansili was a touch keen in the early stages but travelled well at the 2f pole. In the closing stages this youngster looked an awkward ride, hanging to his right, and showing his inexperience. Specific Gravity should be wiser today but needs to improve a good deal on that debut run and be much more professional to have a fighting chance against two talented juveniles. The other representative for Henry Cecil is Glencadam Gold. The 48 hour declarations suggest that Ian Mongon had the pick of the rides (as he was booked to ride both). It interesting to see Paul Hanagan taking the mount and the betting will be the best indicator to the stablemates ability.

6:00 Kempton
A moderate maiden race - but interesting in its own way. The majority of these two-year-old are limited and at best have just about enough ability to win a race. In truth, these are more auction class. With prize money of over £3,000 to the winner, this will be a good pay day for connections. It is probably easier to highlight the negatives of many of these youngsters. Barnet Fair is a relatively short price in the tissue market after what seemed a decent effort at Pontefract last time. However, the form of that race may be weak and it would be no surprise to see Guest's two-year-old outpaced on this turning 5f. Darwin Star is likely to show good speed but has had plenty of attempts and although determined struggles to get her head in front. Barbieri showed a glimmer of ability over course and distance last time when a 33/1 shot. The winner won with ease that day and it could be the case Jeremy Gask's filly was flattered to some extent. Karate cost 90,000gns and half-brother to Tom Tower but a moderate juvenile by all accounts. He showed speed last time over 6f when sent off 2/1 favourite and looks to have an element of ability although setting a similar level to a couple of these. Through a form line with Valerius Maximus (and Forty Proof) there may not be a great deal between Karate, Cristaliyev or Partout Le Magasin. The most guaranteed performer could be Cristaliyev, trained by Jim Boyle. A fair looker, 5f is his trip. This colt ran creditably at Wolverhampton last time - travelling well for much of the way - but struggles to see out 6f. From a fair draw, this colt by Fasliyev should be up with the pace and must have fair place claims. A similar comment can be made for Partout Le Magasin with his close proximity to Forty Proof at Ffos Las. Moore's youngster has shown glimmers of ability before and it remains to be seen whether a similar performance will be seen today. However, on form, this son of Xaar has a fighting chance at a price and although not as consistent as Cristaliyev could have place claims. If there is one horse in the race that could have a fair level of ability it is Manoori. Wall's filly by Dalakhani cost 42,000gns as a foal and held a Group 1 entry to the Cheveley Park Stakes at one stage. She was a 6/1 shot on debut at Beverley but was put at a disadvantage after an awkward start and never really got competitive, given a considerate ride to finish 6th. It is difficult to assess the potential of this filly and clearly she needs to improve on that initial start. However, it could be significant if she is fancied in the betting and would have strong place claims if 13/2 & less.

Today's races:
2:10 Nottingham
2:40 Nottingham
3:10 Nottingham
3:40 Nottingham
6:00 Kempton
6:30 Kempton
8:00 Kempton