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Tuesday, 12 October 2010

Tuesday's Thoughts

2:10 Leicester
A condition stakes race over 7f(9y) on good to soft ground. A tricky little heat. Marked Card is favourite on the exchanges (2.8) but whether this son of Kheleyf has a favourite's chance is a matter of debate. On the face of it, his win at Brighton looked quite comfortable and he certainly holds Blue Deer on that performance. However, you have to question the merit of that form with Red Riverman (8/15 fav) disappointing and it may have turned into a weak race. Time may tell that it was a fair run but it is slightly concerning why Marked Card was beaten so easily at Chester. It could be the case that Fretwell's juvenile wasn't suited by such an idiosyncratic course. Clearly, today will answer those questions. But I would be careful backing this two-year-old at short odds. Yair Hill has a fighting chance although this colt is no world beater. The Goodwood race was pretty strong and it is encouraging to see the 2nd - Weapon Of Choice - winning on his second start. Yair Hill was outclassed that day and didn't get the mile. This 7f will see Dunlop's runner in a better light but once again a horse that may be vulnerable, although I would favour this youngster to Marked Card. By all accounts this looks a difficult race and even though it would take a fair performance from a juvenile to win on debut (and a filly against the colts) it wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see Al Mayasah go well. David Simcock has been in tremendous form this year and this bay by Shamardal could well be one of the trainer's best fillies. Owner Ahmad Al Shaikh has does well with his two-year-olds and this may be the dark horse of the race but in fairness it is more of a watching brief than a betting race.

3:10 Leicester
The most interesting race of the day. This looks a four-horse race at most. Marden has the most proven form and has been well backed on the exchanges. An attractive colt by Danehill Dancer and trained by the in-form Brian Meehan, there is much to like about this two-year-old. The Newmarket maiden he competed on debut has been franked a number of times and this bay colt wasn't pressed that day, given a considerate introduction, and like most of Meehan's juveniles is likely to improve. A multi group-entered juvenile, Marden sets the standard. Michael Jarvis has been in amazing form with his debutantes this season but Indian Emperor knocked those statistics with his 4th at Haydock. An attractive colt by Araafa, he looked to hold every change but tired rapidly in the final furlong. Whether that was to do with lack of fitness or simply failing to get the distance in such conditions is an a matter of opinion. But there is little doubt this drop back to 7f could see a much better run today. Jarvis has a very good win rate with his fancied juveniles on their second start and one of the main dangers to the favourite. Danadana ran a fair race on debut and Luca Cumai's two-year-olds generally improve a good deal for the experience. This colt by Dubawi had every chance until tiring in the final furlong and should strip fitter today and has each-way claims. Raahin has been entered for a number of Group races throughout the season and has to be respected from Sir Michael Stoute. It is always difficult to assess the chances of the stable's two-year-olds on debut as they are rarely pressed but can win on natural ability alone. The betting is the best indicator to this ones chances as the yard have very few horses win over 13/2 when making their race course bow.

Bet: 3:10 Leicester - Indian Emperor 1PTEW (9/2) 4th
Comment: 'A competitive race and no match for the easy winner, Marden. Jarvis' youngster looked to be going well in front but wasn't quite good enough and missed out on a place.'

Today's races:
2:10 Leicester
3:10 Leicester
3:40 Leicester
5:10 Leicester