Monday 11 October 2010

Monday's Thoughts

2:10 Salisbury
A restricted auction race over 6f(212y). Not the easiest race to evaluate with a number of juveniles showing a glimmer of form but all unproven to some extent. Songsmith has run okay on a couple of occasions and may have place claims but doesn't set the highest standard and may struggle to win. Sylas Ings is an interesting colt by Kyllachy. This Phelan-trained juvenile has run against a few talented horses and could be a threat at the furlong pole. However, there is a concern about this colt getting the distance as he seemed to tire rapidly in the last 100m at Epsom after holding every chance. This two-year-old had been off the course a long time before making a return to Epsom and it may be the case he needed the run. If he lasts to the line, Sylas Ings has strong each-way claims. However, the distance is a concern and if failing to get the trip has little chance of winning. Probably best watched today. Chef has been well backed and must be respected from the Andrew Balding yard, who do well at Salisbury. This colt by Selkirk has a Racing Post (Group 1) entry and likely to have ability. The dilemma is that Balding's two-year-old often struggle to win on debut and much better for the run. In previous years, he has managed to win with a few debutantes at this course and for that reason must be respected. On balance, I can see this America-bred colt running a big race. Of the rest, Heart In Motion will appreciate this step up in distance but another difficult to assess at this time.

2:30 Windsor
A 0-75 rated nursery over the extended mile. No strong opinion in this race but wouldn't be surprised to see Rocky Rebel have an each-way chance. This mile on a more testing surface will be ideal as Beckett's colt by Norse Dancer wasn't suited by the turning nature of Lingfield. A juvenile that is progressing with racing and connections will be looking for a big run today.

3:05 Windsor
A open trace where the proven form horses don't set the greatest standard. Ceffyl Gwell is a much better horse over this 6f and ran well at Warwick, although that looked no more than an average maiden. Hannon's two-year-old has a fighting chance but may be vulnerable to a debutante or improver and as a short priced favourite is one to be careful with. At a price, Sensational Love may have a chance. Mills' two-year-olds have been in excellent form and this attractive filly was backed on her second start at Folkestone but ruined any chance by pulling too hard. This drop back to 6f will help if this daughter of Cadeaux Genereux is keen once more. At present, this two-year-old has shown only limited ability and a speculative price would be needed. It would be significant if this runner was backed today.

3:15 Salisbury
Miss Topsy Turvy is quite short priced for one of John Dunlop's on debut but being a half-sister to the impressive Elusive Pimpernel has clearly caught the attention. Owners, Windflower Overseas Holdings Inc, have a wealth of talented horses but the stable do not feature the greatest win rate on debut and may be best watched today. Not really a betting race, but interested to see how Andrew Turnell's Celani fares after a promising run at Kempton. At present, the form is still unproven and a watching brief.

3:25 Kempton
Dubai Queen has been very well backed for this 6f fillies' maiden. Cumani is a trainer who must be respected and capable of unearthing a talented two-year-old. However, he doesn't feature the most impressive win rate on debut. Googlette has proven ability and looked a class act on her debut at Newmarket. Pearl Bloodstock Ltd have a number of two-year-olds in training and a professional outfit. It is a concern that this filly has not raced since the end of May and stall 1 is not ideal. However, if all is well with this daughter of Exceed And Excel, she must take all the beating.

Today's races:
2:00 Windsor
2:10 Salisbury
2:30 Windsor
2:40 Salisbury
2:50 Kempton
3:05 Windsor
3:15 Salisbury
3:25 Kempton