Monday, 28 June 2010

7:55 Musselburgh

An EBF maiden stakes for colts and fillies over 5f.

Quite an interesting race with a mix of juveniles.

Miss Mediator ran well on debut over the quick 5f at York in a fairly valuable maiden. This American-bred filly by Consolidator is not that big but cost a hefty sum at 160,000gns. Dods has a decent string of two-year-olds and Andrew Tinkler has been on a buying spree so they will be expecting a decent number of winners this season. Miss Mediator got rather hot on debut and didn't lack for fitness or determination from Makin in the saddle. There may not be a lot of improvement from that initial start although the level of form should make her competitive. The first two home looked classier individuals at York and Imperialistic Diva is a better horse over 6f. Connections will be expecting a big run today.

On the York form Master Macho is clearly held by Miss Mediator. Channon's two-year-old has been very busy and racing may be taking its toll because the last two efforts, although placed, may be deceiving. Both of those events are difficult to asses and the form may be limited to some extent. At best, Master Macho would have an outstanding chance but I would rather watch today.

Karl Ryan has been in great form these last few weeks and always buys attractive two-year-olds. Fleet Captain showed little on debut but ran much better last time at York. Having been held up, this son of Compton Place ran on well and for a moment looked to have a fighting chance when hampered and eased down in the final furlong. It is difficult to say what this youngster could have achieved that day but must have had place claims. Dropping back to 5f may see further progress or a struggle to go the pace. I would have concerns this will happen all too fast and although it is often a plus to run on at Musselburgh, because it can be a difficult course to lead all the way, it would be a stiff task to come a long way off the pace.

Golden Taurus has progressed with racing after showing little on debut the drop to 5f at Sandown seemed to bring about improvement. This son of Danehill Dancer is a decent looker and he showed good pace in a small field. It is always a possibility he was slightly flattered by his finishing position but the form of that race is holding up well and as he was quite keen is wasn't too much of a surprise to see this juvenile tire in the last half furlong. Hills doesn't send many two-year-olds to Musselburgh and Eaves doesn't ride very often for the stable but this colt has been entered for a couple of stakes races and it could be the case Golden Taurus has more to come.

Of the debutantes Alben Star is fancied in the betting. Richard Fahey has been in flying form with his two-year-olds and has a 32% win rate at the course so must be respected. A breeze-up purchase for 30,000gns this colt by Clodovil should be fit and ready, however, it will be no easy task giving away experience to a few capable sorts here today.

Bet: 7:55 Musselburgh - Golden Taurus 1PTEW (16/1) 5th
Comment: 'A speculative bet that sadly didn't pay off today. A fair race with two debutantes running well didn't help the task but Hills' colt pulled much too hard and never really looked at ease. Perhaps he was flattered on his last effort. I reviewed that race many times and at the odds couldn't afford not to bet. Disappointing effort and hoped for better but speculative bets can deliver the good, bad and ugly.'

Other races:
3:15 Pontefract
3:30 Wolverhampton
6:40 Windsor