Value in betting comes in many shapes and forms. As Harry Findlay famously declared: “There’s plenty of value betting odds-on!” He was absolutely right. However, nothing in gambling remains static. Markets evolve, and what was once a treasure trove of value can quickly become barren. Odds-on bets, for example, became so heavily backed that they often turned into poor value—the complete opposite of their initial appeal.
For me, value often lies in speculative-priced selections—those big-priced opportunities that, when approached correctly, can offer exceptional returns.
But where exactly can you uncover these elusive high-value bets?
One of the first things to recognize when studying horse racing is that not all trainers are created equal. Some consistently excel at producing winners at speculative odds, while others rarely succeed in this space. This isn’t to say those who don't win at big odds can’t offer value—sometimes, knowing what to avoid is as valuable as knowing what to back. But certain trainers stand out for their ability to deliver big-priced winners and exceptional value.
This post builds on one I wrote years ago that was very well-received, generating thousands of page views. One of the trainers I highlighted back then was Michael Dods. At the time, his record with two-year-old debutantes was outstanding, particularly in terms of placing. Many of his runners placed at big odds, and blind betting on these produced excellent profits.
While his stats in recent years may not have been as remarkable, his past performance is a reminder of how profitable following the right trainers can be.
For gamblers chasing value, one of the best strategies is to focus on new or emerging trainers. Bookmakers often take time to adjust to their strengths, creating a window of opportunity. Not all new trainers will succeed—some will struggle to make an impact, offering little value—but that’s precisely why close observation is critical. By keeping an eye on trainer performance, you can identify those who show promise and seize opportunities before the market catches on.
When you spot a trainer with potential, stay vigilant. Follow them closely, analyze their strategies, and be ready to act when you see value. Remember, success in gambling often hinges on timing and insight—spotting value before it disappears is what separates the casual bettor from the sharp.
Photo: Freepik