1:50 Musselburgh (Saturday 30th March) Free Horse Racing Tips

Toteplacepot Racing's Favourite Bet Conditions Stakes over 5f on good to soft ground. Seven two-year-olds compete, three raced, including one winner, two fillies against the boys. Mick's Yer Man made an impressive winning debut in the Brocklesby on the first day of the Flat turf season. By all accounts that was a solid, professional performance and even with a small penalty there could be more to come. Bill Turner has a decent string of juveniles and this colt could well be one of his better winners. Experience can be a huge advantage and with a proven level of ability he sets a stiff task for all opponents. This son of Bahamian Bounty could well be a fair juvenile. 

The Brocklesby was a starting point for another of today's runners *Donny Rover. This son of Excellent Art is owned by Willie McKay, who dug deep to buy this bay colt from the yearling sales for 95,000euros. The mare was Listed-placed, although enjoyed a trip. Charles Smith trains a number of horses for McKay and this is an intriguing sort. There was a good word for this juveniles at Doncaster but all chance had gone with a tardy start. Donny Rover is an attractive colt who could improve significantly on his disappointing 6th when left trailing behind Mick's Yer Man. I would expect to see a much better performance today.

Intense Feeling is the only other horse with experience. This daughter of Intense Focus was a cheap yearling purchase and owned by Mrs Evans. She was well backed on debut at Lingfield and showed good pace until tiring in the latter stages. The winner won in comfortable style and the 5th, Outback Lover, won next start. Although this brown filly has valuable experience I would have concerns this will be a tough task. It is a concern to see her entered for a Selling Stakes. Others make more appeal.

The debutantes will need to be primed and pretty smart juveniles to win. However, it is worth noting that Stakes races often spring a surprise or too. For many trainers this race type it is a sign they fancy their chances. Even with such optimism this looks a competitive heat for their racecourse bow.

Lilo Lil was a cheap purchase and part owned by trainer Griffiths. Best watched.

The debutantes of most note hail from leading two-year-old stables. Scargill, Skye's The Limit & Vine De Nada are worthy of respect.

Skye's The Limit is a chestnut colt sired by Pastoral Pursuits. He cost 32,000gns at the yearling sales. The stable have a very good strike rate at the course although David Nolan could be considered a negative jockey booking. With so many meetings taking place it could be the case the stable are pressed for riders and he may ride this youngster on the gallops. This stable can prime a debutante and they often run big races. As they trained Lord Clyde to finish third in the Brocklesby, Fahey may have a line to Mick's Yer Man.  One of the more likelier types.

Mark Johnston is a superb trainer although I find his debutante exceptionally difficult to call. As I have mentioned many times before, they fall into two groups; easy winners or disappointments. Vine De Nada is a relatively cheap purchase at 13,000gns. The mare won on debut when trained by Ed Dunlop, owned by Cheveley Park Stud, the breeder of this youngster. The stable's juveniles are often slow to come to hand and all too frequently struggle with a slow start. I would rather watch and learn.

Scargill is an early foal, being born in February, so could be forward. He looks to be  a home bred by the versatile stallion Sixties Icon, who Mick Channon done so well with last season. The stable's juveniles can win on debut. The shorter the price the better, so money would be encouraging. Even with this in mind, the stable have few debutante winners priced over 11/2. 

Conclusion: Mick's Yer Man won the Brocklesby in some style and even with a small penalty must take some beating. I would never be tempted to back at short odds as Stakes races can be a can of worms. However, I would be surprised if he doesn't win. Of the rest, I would expect a much improved performance from Donny Rover. He is difficult to assess but I can see a bold show from this youngster. I would take a watching brief with Vine De Nada. Scargill is another to watch if weak in the market. Skye's The Limit has claims but another who needs to be primed to deprive Turner's winner his second victory.

*NR

Take a look at 1:45 Kempton race analysis from We Go Racing  


Richard Fahey - 2yo Talk


Two-Year-Olds
Lord Clyde
He ran in the Brocklesby and shaped well in third. I was delighted with him - he looked like a hairy goat and hated the ground. I'll just give him a little break now.
We have a lot of exciting juveniles to look forward to. Kindanyce and Skye's The Limit are among the more forward and could run at Kempton and Musselburgh this weekend. The latter is quite nice but this wouldn't be his track. If he was able to win over five there he's a decent horse.
Dutch Courage is a filly I like. She hasn't done anything serious but does everything right and looks one to look forward to for Cheveley Park Stud who are new owners in the yard. I also have to pass on a positive word for Kalahari Kingdom. He's a very nice son of Footstepsinthesand.
We'll have a few runners in the early maidens but in general we have more late-maturing types this season who will progress with time. It's very early days with them all.



2 comments:

Orangefleece (James) said...

I do like the quirky stats like the 'very seldom win when odds are over 11/2 ' I do believe they have some value.

Jason Coote said...

Hi James,

He does have winners in this price range but very few win over 8/1.