I would like to thank Paul of PGR Sports for writing this post, especially after he wrote the earlier preview, which was abandoned due to bad weather.
It may have been delayed
a week but tomorrow at 3:05 we finally get to marvel at the sight of
22 runners charging down the Doncaster straight in the 2013 William
Hill Lincoln Handicap. The going like last week remains soft meaning
this year’s renewal will be a testing examination of each
contenders credentials, there are a few changes in the entries from
last week’s original line up with the draw also taking place again
yesterday so with that in mind let’s take a look through the
runners & riders making up the field for the £62,250 first
prize.
Firstly the draw: This
week the draw may not be as big a factor as it would have been last
week with racing taking place on the Friday before. There are 3 races
before post time meaning the ground nearest the rails could be
slightly worse than in the middle so horses drawn in the extreme wide
stalls maybe at a slight disadvantage however looking at the draw
there is also an even split of the more fancied runners for instance
current favourite for the race Captain Bertie is drawn low in
7 with John Gosdens fancied runner Lahaag drawn alongside in
stall 6 meanwhile Eshtibaak is drawn high in stall 20 with the
race fit & in form Strictly Silver higher still in 22.
More importantly for me though is the state of the ground & which
horse are proven to act on it. Let’s take a look at the horses that
have some form with decent cut in the ground which brings the
following horses into contention: Chapter Seven, Memory Cloth,
Global Village, Justonefortheroad, Swiftly Done, Jacks Revenge,
Chosen Character, Capaill Liath as well as 2 horses we mentioned
earlier Lahaag & Captain Bertie. I believe it’s
this group of hoses we should focus on. Memory Cloth is a
dangerous prospect on this ground in fact if the conditions were to
worsen then this one’s price should fall considerably, he’s been
running in some valuable handicaps at York, Goodwood & Ascot on
good & good to firm ground without troubling the frame however
his last win came on heavy ground over 7f at Newcastle in June last
year beating reigning Lincoln champ Brae hill so do not write off
this one’s chances on this ground, currently available at 25/1.
Justonefortheroad is another that will relish the underfoot
conditions & has shown in the past that racing in the
spring after a lengthy break is no problem at all Richard Fahey will
have this one ready to race & last time out in Oct beat an
improving type who was well fancied to win this when the race was
originally due to run last week, currently available at 16/1.
Swiftly Done flopped last time out in the Cambridgeshire however
that was on good ground over 9f I like the form of this one when
there’s cut in the ground , wins last june both over C&D here &
at Newcastle were followed by a good display at Glorious Goodwood in
the Betfred Mile again on good ground beaten only 3 ¾ lengths. This
is another that runs fresh & should not be crossed out at a big
price, currently available at 25/1. Jacks Revenge & Chosen
Character are 2 horses drawn in the middle & will both
appreciate the testing conditions, I see both of these as improving
types, Jacks revenge goes well fresh & Chosen Character will try
to run up with the pace, both can currently be backed at 25/1.
Lahaag: This was
the horse last week chosen to represent last season’s formidable
big race duo of John Gosden & William Buick however with Buick
opting for the heat of Meydan over the snow of Doncaster Robert
Havlin takes the ride. The lightly raced 4 y-o has won 2 of his 4
starts with those wins coming on ground that was good to firm &
good to soft, however last time out he was beaten just a head over 9f
on soft ground at York by Chapter seven in a 3 y-o class 2
handicap he meets that rival again here on similar terms with both
horses similarly improving types. Lahaag is unexposed &
with the ground not an issue & having had only 4 races in a
fledgling career this a definite lively contender & is available
at 8/1.
Global Village:
Trained by Brian Ellison recent history is against this horse
winning the race with just a solitary 8-y-o winner in the past 32
years, however his two most recent wins were picked up in soft ground
handicaps last year most notably in the Victoria Cup at Ascot however
he has gone up 6lbs in the weights since that race. A plus for
punters looking to side with the experienced older horses is that the
horse comes into this race having had a run just 3 weeks ago over 9f
at Southwell finishing just 4&¾ lengths behind Strictly
Silver a horse well fancied by his trainer to take this race with
any sort of decent ground however Rob Havlins mount today has a
useful pull in the weights from that race at Southwell. Global
Village is available at 14/1.
Of the others we have
not mentioned there are a couple that are plenty short enough in the
betting so why have we not given them a second glance? Majestic
Myles, Dance & Dance, Arsaadi & Prince of Johanne are all
plenty high enough in the weights however Marco Botti has an
exciting prospect in the shape of Solar Deity who was the
winner of a listed race on the Wolverhampton all weather over 7f last
time out however like many in this field there’s a big enough doubt
over him going on the ground.
So
taking all the above into account it’s time to pick a winner, well
I will leave that to you. My advice would be back a couple each way
at a double figure price as favourites have a dreadful record in the
race & with 22 runners on testing ground anything really could
happen. I like Jacks revenge & Swiftly Done each way at 25/1.