Mix Business With Pleasure Median Auction Maiden Stakes. A restricted race for 3 - 5 year olds whose sire established one or more yearling sales, with a median price of not more than £18,000. Just four contest this race over 6f on standard going.
On paper this looks a terribly poor race. Perhaps that's why I find it fascinating. Who will win? Time will tell. However, this post is more about exploring four horses than doing the light fantastic. In a crazy way I love these races.
Sally Bruce, trained by Louise Best, ran over course and distance just five days ago. This bay filly doesn't lack for fitness, having six races since mid November. Her best performance was seen at this track in January when finishing second. After losing at Claiming level and having an official rating of just 49 would suggest this would have to be a lowly affair to win after eleven starts. If any of these have ability she will struggle but that is a big assumption.
Tavistock Fair ran twice last month when finishing last on both occasions. After running over 1m 2f and then one mile this is a marked drop in distance. This Irish home bred is likely to find this shorter trip a rude awakening. The stable won't find many more open race and they will be pleased to accept at least £144 for fourth place prize money if not more. This bay gelding needs to be much sharper and there are question marks.
John Long fields an interesting filly, a daughter of Ishiguru. This American bred didn't seem to go through the sales but is related to a number of expensive horses with a couple of half-brothers fetching $80,000 & $140,000 respectively. I'm sure there must be an interesting story about this youngster and she may progress with racing. Guru Baby was unfancied on her first three starts although made a bold show on one occasion when fading in the final furlong. She managed to beat Sally Bruce that day so it will be interesting how they compare on this occasion. This bay was sent off a 20/1 chance last time but didn't show a great deal. This drop back to 6f may be more suiting.
In truth this race is about one horse - Friendship Is Love. This chestnut filly was withdrawn when going through the sales as a foal. Considering her owners bred the mare - who managed to scrape one place effort in seventeen starts - she must be a home bred, originating from Roseyground Stud. The mare needed a trip, however, this looks ideal from the sire's perspective. Will Friendship Is Love win? The difficulty with a debutante against poor raced opposition is that potential naturally rears its head. This chestnut doesn't need to achieve a great level of ability to win but inexperience on a turning course can be costly. David Elsworth can send out debut winners although his horses often improve for their racecourse bow.
Conclusion: All horses bar Friendship Is Love have shown limited ability and that may tempt backers to side with Elsworths debutante. She will either win easily or struggle with a tardy start. Those with form are limited but they do have experience and fitness to give initial advantage. It is a fascinating race to watch.
Showing posts with label Sally Bruce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sally Bruce. Show all posts
Sunday, 3 March 2013
Wednesday, 27 February 2013
6:30 Kempton (Thursday, 28th February) Free Horse Racing Tips
A Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on standard going.
Eight juveniles take part, five raced, with three debutantes including one four-year-old.
Bouyrin, trained by Michael Bell, has fitness on side having raced twice this year. To be fair this daughter of Invincible Spirit must be something of a disappointment to connections after costing 120,000gns as a yearling. Bell trained the mare who was very much a sprinter and winner at Listed class at two and short-head loser at Group 3 at Maisons-laffitte. A recent gallop report on the Al Bahatri said: ''Bouyrin certainly caught the eye in the first group to come up and she traveled nicely. She has entries this week at Kempton.'' With an official rating of 66 some may consider she is handily weighted to go the nursery route. This bay filly has been placed on all starts bar her debut. Although well drawn she is most likely to sit with the pack and try to make her challenge in the final two furlongs. This bay filly has her limitations and in what looks a poor race must have claims.
Clive Cox fields ex-Irish filly Scent Of Roses. Quite a well bred filly, sired by Invincible Spirit, her first two starts were on heavy ground. A narrow defeat on debut saw her step up to Group 3 class. In training with Dermot Weld, she was readily outpointed when a major fancy in the betting that day. A recent 54,000gns purchase in December by Blandford Bloodstock proves that her new owners feel she has potential. Scent Of Roses was quite weak in the betting that day and 7f may have been a step too far and, perhaps, not fully fit. I would suspect this drop back in distance, Kirby in the saddle, means business. A weakness in the betting would give cause for concern but conversely strong support would make me consider this is the horse to beat.
Sally Bruce went close to winning last time out after showing little ability in nine previous outings. With an official rating of just 47 it would be something of a surprise if victory came her way.
The debutantes could prove a threat in such a lowly affair. However, experience counts for a lot on this turning track and a slow start is usually part and parcel for those making their racecourse bow.
Gift Of Silence has the burden of top weight, being the only four-year-old in the field. She is a recent purchase for John Berry at 800gns. A watching brief is advised.
Racing the familiar silks of M Khan is Meetha Achar. This home bred is trained by Jim Boyle who is a talent but his horses usually progress with experience. With the 5lb apprentice taking the ride it suggest this horse isn't primed for today. It would give greater confidence if substantially backed.
The most intriguing of the debutantes is Seymour Place, trained by Roger Charlton. This daughter of Compton Place is a home bred out of a twice-winning mare who was similarly owned & trained. The stable can ready a horse to win on debut and they have fair each way claims when fancied in the betting. However, home breds can be a little slow to learn what is required of them, although at three that might be negated. Unless substantially backed, I would suspect she will be on the back foot and finish with spirit.
Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. There may not be a great deal of value on offer. Bouyrin is no world beater but has fitness and experience onside. Bell's horses are in decent form and I would be surprised if she wasn't in the first two. If there is a dark horse in this field it has to be Scent Of Roses. On her best form this would be an easy target and for connections to dig deep into their pockets to purchase her at the sales suggests her trainer holds some hope. This drop back in distance looks ideal and if steady in the betting I would make this my selection. A major drift in the betting would be a concern.
Eight juveniles take part, five raced, with three debutantes including one four-year-old.
Bouyrin, trained by Michael Bell, has fitness on side having raced twice this year. To be fair this daughter of Invincible Spirit must be something of a disappointment to connections after costing 120,000gns as a yearling. Bell trained the mare who was very much a sprinter and winner at Listed class at two and short-head loser at Group 3 at Maisons-laffitte. A recent gallop report on the Al Bahatri said: ''Bouyrin certainly caught the eye in the first group to come up and she traveled nicely. She has entries this week at Kempton.'' With an official rating of 66 some may consider she is handily weighted to go the nursery route. This bay filly has been placed on all starts bar her debut. Although well drawn she is most likely to sit with the pack and try to make her challenge in the final two furlongs. This bay filly has her limitations and in what looks a poor race must have claims.
Clive Cox fields ex-Irish filly Scent Of Roses. Quite a well bred filly, sired by Invincible Spirit, her first two starts were on heavy ground. A narrow defeat on debut saw her step up to Group 3 class. In training with Dermot Weld, she was readily outpointed when a major fancy in the betting that day. A recent 54,000gns purchase in December by Blandford Bloodstock proves that her new owners feel she has potential. Scent Of Roses was quite weak in the betting that day and 7f may have been a step too far and, perhaps, not fully fit. I would suspect this drop back in distance, Kirby in the saddle, means business. A weakness in the betting would give cause for concern but conversely strong support would make me consider this is the horse to beat.
Sally Bruce went close to winning last time out after showing little ability in nine previous outings. With an official rating of just 47 it would be something of a surprise if victory came her way.
The debutantes could prove a threat in such a lowly affair. However, experience counts for a lot on this turning track and a slow start is usually part and parcel for those making their racecourse bow.
Gift Of Silence has the burden of top weight, being the only four-year-old in the field. She is a recent purchase for John Berry at 800gns. A watching brief is advised.
Racing the familiar silks of M Khan is Meetha Achar. This home bred is trained by Jim Boyle who is a talent but his horses usually progress with experience. With the 5lb apprentice taking the ride it suggest this horse isn't primed for today. It would give greater confidence if substantially backed.
The most intriguing of the debutantes is Seymour Place, trained by Roger Charlton. This daughter of Compton Place is a home bred out of a twice-winning mare who was similarly owned & trained. The stable can ready a horse to win on debut and they have fair each way claims when fancied in the betting. However, home breds can be a little slow to learn what is required of them, although at three that might be negated. Unless substantially backed, I would suspect she will be on the back foot and finish with spirit.
Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. There may not be a great deal of value on offer. Bouyrin is no world beater but has fitness and experience onside. Bell's horses are in decent form and I would be surprised if she wasn't in the first two. If there is a dark horse in this field it has to be Scent Of Roses. On her best form this would be an easy target and for connections to dig deep into their pockets to purchase her at the sales suggests her trainer holds some hope. This drop back in distance looks ideal and if steady in the betting I would make this my selection. A major drift in the betting would be a concern.
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