6:40 Kempton Racing Tips (3rd Aug) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race) (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Fillies Stakes race over 7f on a standard to slow going. 

Seven two-year-olds take part. Snow Squaw has been fancied on both starts to date and far from disgraced when making her debut at Newmarket and then stepping up to seven furlongs when third in a competitive race at Ascot. This Irish-bred daughter of Excelebration is out of a three-time winning mare at Listed class and placed in Group 2. David Elsworth does well with his juveniles and I imagine connections were satisfied with her performance the last start although hoping for a win. This homebred must take the beating today.

Robert Eddery is a talented trainer who deserves more horses sent his way. Fire Palace is a daughter of Royal Applause and a bargain by when purchased by her present owner Edwin Phillips for just 1,800G. Interesting that connections sent this bay filly to Goodwood on debut and she showed promise to finish seventh at odds of 66/1. Eddery does very well with his juveniles when prominent in the betting on their second start and there has been money for this horse. I'd expected a bold show.

Every Nice Girl is trained by Marco Botti who has been a little quiet with his two-year-olds this season. This American-bred daughter of Mizzen Mast is a breeze-up purchase [bought at two, April] for 58,000G. Botti has fair win and place claims with his debutantes priced 10/1 & less. 

David Simcock has been in cracking form with his two-year-olds this season and Vista Steppe made her debut at Doncaster, although not particularly fancied. The betting is key here. If priced 13/2 & less SP has claims but if weak in the market best watched.

The others are best watched. 

Conclusion: This looks a fine chance for Snow Squaw to win. A couple of runs should have her primed and the main opponent looks to be Fire Palace. I expect Eddery's second starter to improve but needs to. It is a shame there aren't three places for each-way backers but, in fairness, his fancied juveniles either win or finish unplaced. Every Nice Girl & Vista Steppe may have claims if in their respective betting guides although I would be looking towards the top two in the betting. Snow Squaw gets the nod.

2:00 Newbury Racing Tip (11th April) AL BASTI EQUIWORLD EBF STALLIONS MAIDEN STAKES (Bobis Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f34y on good to soft going. Fair prize money for this fourteen-strong field of twelve colts and two fillies, one raced. A number of leading stables represented and starting point for a good few talented horses. 

David Elsworth won this contest last year with Justice Day. This multiple-winning two-year-old colt proved consistent -  including an outstanding third in the Middle Park Stakes (Group 1).

David Elsworth has his first two-year-old runner, similarly owned in the silks of Robert Ng. Justice Good is a March foal by Acclamation who cost 65,000gns at the yearling sales. This bay colt is out of a winning mare, who didn't race at two. It could be the case that Elsworth targets this race with his precocious juveniles. However, he features a poor strike rate with his debutantes. The stable's youngsters can win if priced 10/1 & less on debut but they can be very hit and miss. This will be a competitive betting heat I would consider a bold show if strongly fancied. If weak in the markets this horse may need the run.

Richard Hannon has sent out three two-year-old horses this season and all have won. The stable have a wealth of talented juveniles and they have done well in this race. Last year they had the runner-up in Steventon Star, Malachim Mist (8th) & Biography (12th). All went on to win, the two former winning at Stakes class. 

Be Bold is a son of Assertive out of a poor mare, which cost £20,000 at the yearling sales. This February foal was quoted by Hannon as ''working well up at Everleigh on Tuesday''. *Crafty Choice is ridden by Ryan Moore. Similarly purchased by Peter & Ross Doyle Bloodstock Ltd, this bay colt cost 70,000gns. This March foal isn't quite two and sired by Intikhab out of a a talented five-time winning mare, trained by Hannon Snr. The betting is the best guide to their respective chances and the most favoured in the betting should have sound each way claims.

Another talented trainer of two-year-olds is Richard Fahey. Ballymore Castle is a brown colt by Invincible Spirit out of a Group 3 winning mare who liked a trip. The betting is the best guide and if priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims.

John Gosden is represented by his first two-year-old runner of the season. Kasb is an exceptionally well bred son of Arcano out of a fantastic mare, Cape Columbine, who may have only one win in her career but competed at Group 1 level on four occasions. This horse is wearing the second colours for Hamdan Al Maktoum. The second string often go well for this owner. The stable have respectable win and place claims with horses priced 13/2 & less, especially if strongly fancied. 

It is interesting to see Paul Hanagan booked to ride Kibaar, trained by John Hills. This son of Pastoral Pursuits rose in price from 16,000gns as a foal to a 100,000gns yearling. Hills doesn't inspire confidence with his debutnates although on the other side of the coin he has few juveniles fancied on their racecourse bow. If strongly fancied I would take this horse as having ability. 

Mick Channon has been a little slow with his juveniles this early part of the season (not that there has been many races) and King Crimson has a wide draw (1) which isn't the best starting point. Channon's debutantes have fair win and place claims if priced 8/1 & less but few horses win outside this guide. 

Kennet Valley Thoroughbred Ltd are a syndicate who are always worthy of respect - they have the knack of finding talented two-year-olds. This son of first season sire Zebedee looks a good purchase at 35,000euros. Charlie Hills said: ''Magical Memory has always been forward at home and done enough to do himself justice.'' [Information found via Horse Trainer Directory]. The stable have fair each way claims when their juveniles are priced 13/2 & less on debut.     

I'm a big fan of Olly Steven's stable. He made a huge impact on his formative season and his first juvenile of this campaign is The Paco Kid. From a small sample it is still quite difficult to get a handle on Robin Farm Racing. However, they were represented by Green Door in this race last year who went on to win the Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2). If priced 13/2 & less would be high on the short list.     

The only form horse in this field is one of two fillies, trained by David Evans. This handler has his juveniles fit and forward. He is a canny trainer and should be respected. This daughter of Hellvelyn was a cheap buy at just £3,000. This bay finished second on debut at Kempton, although hammered by Tiggy Wiggy. Richard Hannon said they were surprised their winner had such a decisive success.  A talented horse without doubt. It is difficult to assess the merit of Charlie's Star. She will be fit and most probably set the pace but not a horse I would back because this will be a stiffer task.  

Diamond Sam is a home bred son of Compton Place out of a Group raced mare, who run in the same silks as Mrs Philip Snow. Sylvester Kirk has a poor strike rate with debutantes and unless seriously backed is best watched.  

Arlecchino's Leap is trained by Mark Usher and cost 20,000gns at the yearling sales. The stable have a poor strike rate with debutantes although their first runner, Spindle, ran well when second at Southwell. 

Royal Street & Now Say Boooom are best watched. 

Conclusion: A difficult race to be too dogmatic. The betting will need to settle to give a better understanding of these leading trainers. The likes of Hannon, Fahey, Gosden, Channon, Hills & Olly Stevens are all capable of sending out debut winners. In addition, David Elsworth may earmark this race for a decent early type. All have fair win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. It's intriguing to see John Hills' Kibaar racing in the first colours. There is conflict with the trainer having a poor strike rate on debut although he doesn't have many at short odds. A difficult horse to assess. A fascinating race but a watching brief.  

*NR [Crafty Choice]
     

      

2:40 Kempton (Monday, 4th March) Free Horse Racing Tips

Mix Business With Pleasure Median Auction Maiden Stakes. A restricted race for 3 - 5 year olds whose sire established one or more yearling sales, with a median price of not more than £18,000.  Just four contest this race over 6f on standard going. 

On paper this looks a terribly poor race. Perhaps that's why I find it fascinating. Who will win? Time will tell. However, this post is more about exploring four horses than doing the light fantastic. In a crazy way I love these races.

Sally Bruce, trained by Louise Best, ran over course and distance just five days ago. This bay filly doesn't lack for fitness, having six races since mid November. Her best performance was seen at this track in January when finishing second. After losing at Claiming level and having an official rating of just 49 would suggest this would have to be a lowly affair to win after eleven starts. If any of these have ability she will struggle but that is a big assumption.

Tavistock Fair ran twice last month when finishing last on both occasions. After running over 1m 2f and then one mile this is a marked drop in distance. This Irish home bred is likely to find this shorter trip a rude awakening. The stable won't find many more open race and they will be pleased to accept at least £144 for fourth place prize money if not more. This bay gelding needs to be much sharper and there are question marks.

John Long fields an interesting filly, a daughter of Ishiguru. This American bred didn't seem to go through the sales but is related to a number of expensive horses with a couple of half-brothers fetching $80,000 & $140,000 respectively.  I'm sure there must be an interesting story about this youngster and she may progress with racing. Guru Baby was unfancied on her first three starts although made a bold show on one occasion when fading in the final furlong. She managed to beat Sally Bruce that day so it will be interesting how they compare on this occasion. This bay was sent off a 20/1 chance last time but didn't show a great deal. This drop back to 6f may be more suiting.

In truth this race is about one horse - Friendship Is Love. This chestnut filly was withdrawn when going through the sales as a foal. Considering her owners bred the mare - who managed to scrape one place effort in seventeen starts - she must be a home bred, originating from Roseyground Stud. The mare needed a trip, however, this looks ideal from the sire's perspective. Will Friendship Is Love win? The difficulty with a debutante against poor raced opposition is that potential naturally rears its head. This chestnut doesn't need to achieve a great level of ability to win but inexperience on a turning course can be costly. David Elsworth can send out debut winners although his horses often improve for their racecourse bow.

Conclusion: All horses bar Friendship Is Love have shown limited ability and that may tempt backers to side with Elsworths debutante. She will either win easily or struggle with a tardy start. Those with form are limited but they do have experience and fitness to give initial advantage. It is a fascinating race to watch.

1:30 Lingfield (Wednesday, 19th December) Free Horse Racing Tips

BRITISH STALLION STUDS E.B.F./32RED.COM MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) Winner £3,340 ATR Standard 7f Number of runners: 12

An intriguing fillies' maiden stakes with a number of top trainers ruefully searching for a weak contest. Bar one or two, the juveniles are lightly raced but it's noticeable this field can best be categorized by those who can and those who can't win. The betting will most likely reflect this opinion with a stark divide for those fancied against a number of rags.