Cheltenham Value: Part 2

Tuesday

5.15 Pulteney Land Investments Novices Chase

Kapga de Cerisy looks an interesting runner in this. He's entered in two other races later in the week but this would appear to be the easier task of the three given this is a novices race. Quite highly tried as a hurdler he ran in a Grade 1 at Chepstow and in the Fred Winter here last year, running quite well until being outpaced. This longer trip should be more to his liking. He's won his last two races at Sandown, fairly powering away. Last time he beat Fago who was quite well fancied for the Arkle at the time. If you believe that form then he looks fairly treated off his mark. He seems to go on any ground and jumped well on his penultimate start. Last time his jumping was not great but I'm hoping a slightly longer trip and more spaced out fences will be more to his liking. 20/1 is a standout price with Boylesports.

Kapga de Cerisy 1 pt ew 20/1 Boylesports NRNB

Wednesday

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle

Whispering Gallery has entries in four races at the Cheltenham Festival and whilst his World Hurdle entry is probably a bit ambitious; this, the Supreme and the Albert Bartlett are realistic. Given he's won over 2 miles on the flat you'd think he'd prefer the longer races if the rain stays away. He's a Group 3 winner on the flat in Dubai - where he's finished in front of Opinion Poll twice. Winner of his only two hurdle races in good style he could be top class. He never came off the bridle in those two races but on the flat he found plenty and I feel the Cheltenham hill will suit him if he's in contention coming to the last. He will go on any ground and at a price of 20/1 is worth an interest with Bet 365 NRNB and Best Odds Guaranteed.

Whispering Gallery 1 pt ew 20/1 Bet365 NRNB BOG

Friday

4.40 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

This race has 196 entries and the bookmakers aren't going any bigger than 66/1 on any of them. Not the obvious place to start looking for value! Barbatos was a course and distance winner on New Years Day last year. It was a good race and the horses from it have come out and won 13 times from 62 runs since. Barbatos was not seen out again last season due to injury and made his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham at the end of January. It was his first run for over a year, on unsuitably heavy ground and over an inadequate trip. Despite that, he was only beaten 25 lengths. This longer trip and better ground should enable him to work with a mark of 138 which looks fair. 33/1 with Bet 365 NRNB and Best Odds Guaranteed seems a decent price.

Barbatos 1 pt e/w 33/1 Bet365 NRNB BOG

Early Cheltenham Value

With just over a week to go before the festival starts our guest blogger, Sean Kelsey,  has been searching for Early Cheltenham Value. He said: ''I like to really take an interest in the markets and look for value as the bookmakers go non runner no bet. At the time of writing there are three bookmakers doing this on all the races, with a number of others offering the concession on the Championship races. Bet365 also go Best Odds Guaranteed which can really pay dividends. The on course market is so strong and on course bookmakers generally have no liabilities going into the races, meaning they can push out prices on the day. I picked a few selections below that I believe offer some good value now. ''

Tuesday 12th March 2.40 – JLT Specialty Steeple Chase

My first selection is somewhat weather dependent. I hoping for a dry run up to the festival so that we get genuinely Good to Soft ground for Midnight Chase. This race is a Grade 3 handicap and Midnight Chase gets a somewhat lenient mark of 152. His last 5 races have been in Grade 1's or 2's and to be honest, he's not quite up to that class. Ignore his last two races on soft or heavy ground and his form stacks up. Although he was first to come off the bridle in the Charlie Hall and was beaten out of sight by Silvinaco Conti, he plugged on well into third and did give weight to that horse (5lbs) and Wayward Prince (10lbs), who came out and won next time. His Argento win last year is good form and if he reproduces anything like that he'll be bang there. Watching his races, he seems to jump more fluently on better ground. His record of 5 wins from 10 visits to Cheltenham, 4 from 7 on Good - Soft ground, and a first and a third in his two Grade 3 runs are enough to interest me. His last handicap run was off 161, where he came third in the Rowland Meyrick in soft ground. Currently a best priced 20/1 NRNB with Bet Victor. If it is genuinely Good to Soft ground on the day expect him to go off around 10/1.

Midnight Chase 1 point ew 20/1 Bet Victor

3.20 – Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

Ok, my next selection is based around the fact that Paddy Power are giving you your money back if Hurricane Fly wins. It's quite easy to make a case for any of the next four in the betting but Paddy aren't giving too much away with their prices with them at this stage. Countrywide Flame has disappointed the last two times he's raced. The race at Kempton, won by Darlan, turned into a sprint finish after a slow early pace; Countrywide Flame was well in contention at the second last but didn't have the speed from thereon in. On his last run at Doncaster, he was only beaten 3 lengths by Rock On Ruby, after initially being outpaced and further behind. Cheltenham is a different test and the stiff uphill climb will suit Countrywide Flame, as will a faster pace. At 16/1 he's the value in a competitive race.

Countrywide Flame 1 point ew 16/1 Paddy Power

Wednesday 13th March 1.30 National Hunt Chase

Even more speculative this one. Rose of the Moon might prefer soft ground and could go for the Kim Muir instead. He needs a decent trip and I think this is more his race but would consider backing him in that as well. (He's currently only 25/1 with the NRNB bookies for that though). Ignore his last run which came too quick for him - his record when returning to the race track within 30 days is no wins from 6 attempts. He won a couple of small novice chases in good style prior to that. Look back through his early hurdles form and you'll see he was quite highly tried and ran in a couple of Grade 2 hurdles competing with the likes of Bobs Worth and Rock On Ruby. Clearly he's not that good but I think he's definitely capable of being competitive in this. At 40/1 with Bet Victor NRNB he's too big a price too ignore.

Rose of the Moon 1/2 point ew 40/1 Bet Victor

Great work from Sean. Remember to read all his posts over the 2013 Cheltenham Festival.