2:20 Newmarket Racing Tip (16th April) HORSESOURCE SEABUCKTHORN CONDITIONS STAKES (BOBIS RACE)

A Conditions Stakes over 5f on good ground. An eight strong field of two-year-olds colts and one gelding. Three juveniles have race experience.

Bill Turner has started the season in earnest and Abscent Friends made a winning debut at Southwell when fancied in the betting (4/1). This son of Showingcasing is owned by the trainer's daughter and ridden by his grandson. This February foal is very much an unfurnished horse with a lot of growing to do and quite dip backed. It didn't stop him from winning is fair style although it is difficult to assess the level of that form. Toytown - who finished down the field in the Brocklesby - wasn't beaten a great number of lengths, although tired rapidly in the final furlong. This looks a stiffer competition and although improvement is on the cards I would favour others.

Flyball ran well in the Brocklesby, finishing third, then won on the nod next start at Leicester. Richard Hannon's youngster was a relatively cheap buy but a good-looking colt, athletic, eager to please, if not a little keen in the early stages. His strength is the manner this bay colt knuckles down at the finish.

He is very closely matched with George Baker's Harry Hurricane. This son of Kodiac cost £38,000 at the yearling sales. Although starting at 14/1, there was money for this bay colt from huge odds on the exchanges. He didn't get the best start but traveled very well mid race and then rallied near the line. With a three pound advantage over Flyball, there is a fighting chance he can reverse the form. Baker's two-year-olds are primed to go well on their second start and although far from unfit on debut there should be improvement.

The debutantes are slightly better in the weight but will need to be talented, fit and primed to beat those with experience. It is interesting to consider that many trainers race horses at this grade because they hold them in some regard. This factor can negate the bias which raced horses enjoy.

Godolphin is represented by their first juvenile runner of the reason, trained by Charlie Appleby. Portamento is a grey son of Shamardal out of a Group 1 winning mare (Octave). An exceptionally well bred two-year-old. The stable can go well on debut. A difficult horse to assess but one to be respected.

David Brown is a talented trainer and teams up with Qatar Racing Ltd. Mind Of Madness is a bay colt who has just turned two and cost 45,000gns. This Irish bred son of Amazour is out of a winning mare. The sire wasn't a sprinter so may this youngster may appreciate further in time. If priced 13/2 & less has fair win and place claims. 

Framley Garth is a cheap yearling purchase at just 6,000gns. This bay colt is owned and trained by David Elsworth. He often starts some of his better juveniles at headquarters although his debutantes can be hit and miss. Unless seriously backed I'd take a watching brief.

Big McIntosh hails from John Ryan's stable and cost 85,000gn at the yearling sales. This son of Bushranger is an early foal (February). Probably best watched.   

Ralph McTell is best watched.

Conclusion: Those raced horses will be primed to run a big race and experience is worth its weight in gold at this time of year. It is difficult to assess the merit of those performances but they have proven a level of ability. Abscent Friends has done nothing wrong and won in fair style but isn't the best looker and has a lot of growing to do. I'd rather watch and learn. It could be a close call between Flyball and Harry Hurricane. The former is a decent-looking colt, while George Baker's juvenile is a little smaller but should improve. I would favour Harry Hurricane. Of the debutantes, Portamento & Mind Of Madness have decent each way claims if priced 13/2 & less. Godolphin's colt is exceptionally well bred and if seriously backed would bring further confidence. If priced allow, Harry Hurricane has fair win and place claims and a tentative selection. Not the easiest of race types to be dogmatic.
   

2:20 Leicester (4th April) KNIGHTON MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

A Maiden Stakes over 5f 2y on good to soft ground. Twelve two-year-olds take part: eight colts, one gelding and three fillies from a selection of leading juvenile trainers. All horses are making their debut bar Flyball who finished an admirable third in the Brocklesby Conditions Stakes. 

Experience is a huge positive at this time of year. Flyball, trained by Richard Hannon, is an ideal candidate to prove the benefit of a first start. This March foal, owned by Middleham Park Racing, was a cheap yearling purchase by Ross Doyle Bloodstock for £9,000 out of a limited, sprinting mare, trained by the late Terry Mills. This bay colt may have been a little weak in the betting on debut. However, he showed ample promise to finish third behind Cock Of The North. The Brocklesby is a fair measure of ability and he should improve for that initial start. Flyball knew his job at Doncaster: quick from the stalls, in contention, if not slightly outpaced mid race, before running on at the finish. He doesn't look the to have ample pace but against this field of debutantes should lead or just sit off the pace. It is a positive he runs to the line. Many of the newcomers are likely to be tiring at the finish or given a tender introduction. It is always a strength to finish a race. The only negative is a wide draw. Stall one leaves a horse prone to run into space and although experience will lessen this factor it is something to consider. I would expect Levey [jockey] to make a bold show and the draw shouldn't be too much of a negative. This colt may have been a cheap buy but he is a fair-looking juvenile, quite tall and athletic. An honest type who will run his race. It will take a fair juvenile to beat him on debut. It must be noted that the form of the Brocklesby has yet to be tested - so caution is always the best policy. However, if each way prices allow - a fair bet.

Richard Fahey is a class act when it comes to training two-year-olds. He is one of few trainers who features a similar win rate with horses on their first and second start. Very few handlers come close to such exploits - the mark of horses primed to go well on their racecourse bow. Burtonwood catches the eye. This son of Acclamation is out of a poor-winning mare but certainly caught the attention of many at the sales. This January foal must be a good-looking colt because he was sold for 150,000gns at the yearling sales in joint ownership of David Armstrong & Cheveley Park Stud. With such a price tag, high-profile trainer & auspicious owners this must be a talking horse. The stable can deliver impressive debutante winners and one to respect. A relatively wide draw is not ideal but an intriguing horses. 

Brazen Spirit comes here after being balloted out of the Brocklesby, which is a strange occurrence. This grey son of first season sire Zebedee was purchased by the trainer for £20,000 at the yearling sales. Clive Cox is a talented handler and he can prime a horse to go well on debut. Certainly a high rail draw could be an advantage if fast from the stalls. The betting will be the best guide to this February foal's chances. If priced 13/2 & less he has sound win and place claims. 

Another trainer associated with class juveniles is Kevin Ryan. Fast Act is a chestnut colt by first season sire Fast Company. He cost £38,000 at the yearling sales and related to a good few winners. This horse runs in the familiar silks of Hambleton Racing Ltd. He is one of the youngest in the field, not quite two (16th April). Just under half of all Ryan's juveniles start 13/2 & less o their debut run. The majority of their winners are priced 7/1 & less but they do have a few beyond this guide. The stable feature a respectable win rate on debut although they can be rather hit and miss. 

London Life was entered to run at Lingfield but a non runner. This daughter of Approve cost 38,000euros at the yearling sales and an early foal. It is slightly concerning that she looked to be second string on her intended start although Kingscote takes the ride today. The betting is the best guide and if priced 7/1 & less would have fair win and place claims. I wouldn't back this horse early on the exchanges, as if needing the run she will most likely drift in the betting.

David Evans has the approach of throwing a lot of two-year-old at this first part of the season with the aim of taking advantage of limited races, fit horses and a talent or two. Cheerio Sweetie made an impressive debut to win at Lingfield and fields four horses of an intended five runners. Verchild Lad, Josie Joe, Hard To Find & Come Uppence are all cheap buys. The betting is the best guide and if priced 13/2 & less it would be a sign of confidence. A watching brief if weak in the market.

Chester Deal is related to Marilyn Marquessa who showed some pace at two but a limited horse. Jo Hughes' stable often like to gamble and a market move would be a sign of interest. However, this colt is best watched.

Harry Hurricane makes his debut for George Baker. This son of Kodiac is out of a winning mare and cost £38,000 at the yearling sales, increasing his price from foal. This bay colt isn't two until 24th April. The stable's juveniles usually benefit for the run unless they are substantially backed. I'd take a watching brief unless the floodgates open, as most of their youngsters are primed for their second start.

Bill Turner is another trainer who isn't shy when it comes to racing his two-year-old horses and Lady Bling didn't look to go through the sales ring. This daughter of Showcasing is not quite two and races in the familiar black and yellow silks of Mrs M Teversham. The stable do not feature as good a strike rate on debut as the media proclaims and unless substantially backed best watched.

Conclusion: An intriguing race. The betting will be a good guide to the leading prospects. Unless there is a big gamble this looks to be out of Flyball, Burtonwood, Brazen Spirit & Fast Act. Flyball isn't best drawn but he is likely to set a stern test for the debutantes, who will need to be primed to challenge this juvenile. The Brocklesby form is still unproven but it is generally a fair guide to ability. Hannon's colt looks straight forward and will be primed to win. He is likely to finish with zeal and that could make life difficult for the debutantes who will be given a considerate introduction to racing. If each way prices are availble it would be a disappointment if Flyabll couldn't make the frame. Burtonwood cost a lot of money at the sales and hails from influential connections who send out debut winners. It will be interesting to see how this colt fares in the betting. If a class act, he could take all the beating but any signs of inexperience would favour the horse with experience. Brazen Spirit would have fair win and place claims if prices 13/2 & less. London Life follows a similar guide. It is a concern that this filly was viewed as second string when entered to run at Lingfield. If weak in the betting that would be a negative. Fast Act should be respected and has a fighting chance if fancied in the betting. The rest would need to be substantially backed to bring any confidence. Flyball would have respectable claims if available at each way prices. 

HCE has a new breeding expert - Massimo Nutini. 

He says: This time the pure sprinter is LADY BLING Best quality horses are CHESTER DEAL and FAST ACT; more correlated horse to the distance, continues to be BRAZEN SPIRIT.

My choice should go on BRAZEN SPIRIT

1:30 Doncaster (29th March) WILLIAM HILL DOWNLOAD THE APP BROCKLESBY CONDITIONS STAKES (Bobis Race) (CLASS 4) (2yo)

The first two-year-old race of the season. The Brocklesby Conditions Stakes heralds the start of a new crop of juveniles. All those winter dreams will come to fruition for one horse and add to the glory of all those who have won before. 

In 2009 Pat Eddery trained Hearts Of Fire to win this race, progressing with racing to win the Gran Criterium (Group 1) and contesting the 2,000 Guineas at three. 

Another true talent came in 1994 with Mind Games, trained by the red-shirted Jack Berry, a man who transformed 2yo horse racing with an unending string of juveniles the majority bargain buys. Mind Games went on to win the Norfolk Stakes (Group 3) and short-head loser in the Flying Childers (Group 2). His most notable win came in the Temple Stakes (Group 2) at Sandown. He raced nine times at Group 1 level but failed to win, his best performance came in the Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) at York, 4th behind Pivotal. 

One old timer, who many punters will have very fond memories, was Indian Spark, winner in 1996. Trained by none other than Brocklesby supremo Bill Turner, this son of Indian Ridge won by four lengths. His major win came at Listed class at Chester. His greatest victory of all was his durability and sound physique. He ran 143 races achieving fourteen wins.        

Even further back we saw Provideo, trained by Bill O'Gorman. In 1984 he set a 20th-century record for a British-trained two-year-old when he won sixteen of his twenty-four races, including two Listed contests.  

From a historical perspective the best horse to win the Brocklesby Stakes was Donovan (1888) who went on to win the Derby and St Leger (1889)  

This year's William Hill Lincoln meeting sees eighteen two-year-olds declared to run over 5f on soft ground. A mix of trainers featuring fourteen colts/geldings and just four fillies. A high draw is often favourable but with the ground on the testing side there is a possibility the field may split into two groups. 

The betting is a very good guide to the chances of most with only one horse winning at odds over 14/1 in the last seventeen years. 

The leading hopes include:

Richard Hannon Jnr takes charge of a new Flat turf season and starts the campaign with Flyball a son of Proclamation. This March foal, is owned by Middleham Park Racing and a cheap yearling purchase by Ross Doyle Bloodstock for £9,000 out of a limited, sprinting mare, trained by Terry Mills. The stable have such a record with their two-year-olds that is it wise to keep on the right side of this bay colt. If weak in the betting I would take a watching brief although if well backed deserves respect. 

It is intriguing to note that Pat Eddery has a representative. Escalating is an early foal sired by Three Valleys out of  a twice-raced French mare, trained by Mme C Head-Maarek. She was a narrow loser on soft going when making her debut at Listed class, which is a notable performance for a juvenile. In general, the stable feature a poor win rate with their debutantes, although early juveniles often prove to have their share of ability. Marvelino was made favourite for this race in 2012, but ran poorly, winning later in the season although a horse of limited ability. It is interesting to see the stable racing with a juvenile from Prince Khalid Abdullah at this early part of the season. If priced 10/1 & less it would bring more confidence. A low draw may be a disadvantage if the stands' side rail proves best. If more rain falls it could prove to be a bold move to race far side, which makes assessment of this race a little tricky with regard to the draw.

Few trainers take the Brocklesby Stakes more seriously than Bill Turner. In fact, he has made a name for sending his best two-year-old to compete in this race year after year. He has won this race five out of the last twelve times. Last year saw Mick's Your Man floor his rivals in convincing fashion. Other winners sent from this stable include: He's So Cool, Sally's Dilemma, Spoof Master and one of the stable's best horses The Lord (2002).  Paddy Again is one of four fillies in the field, which means she will have to be a fair juvenile to beat the colts. This daughter of Moss Vale was a very cheap purchase at just 1,700 euros. The mare was poor horse who showed little ability and raced over a mile. By all accounts this Irish bred filly doesn't inspire on the breeding front. All Turner's winners were fancied in the betting - none greater than 8/1.  Paddy Again is a conflicting horse. On breeding you wouldn't be impressed but the trainer's record is second to none. Turner has routinely sent his best two-year-old to race in this contest. The betting is the best guide. If around the 13/2 price range I would expect a big run but if particularly weak in the market I would take a watching brief. For further information read Bill Turner heads to Brocklesby Stakes at Doncaster more in hope than expectation.

A filly who certainly looks the part on breeding is Magic Florence, trained by James Given. This chestnut daughter of first season sire Zebedee runs in the familiar colours of The Cool Silk Partnership. She cost £56,000 at the yearling sales and half sister to Hamza, a talented Group 1 performer with Kevin Ryan. Given has the odd debut winner but his strike rate is poor and clearly this March foal would need to be a talent to defy such averages. The exception would be if Magic Florence was well supported with a starting price of 13/2 & less. Drawn in stall one is never good news for a debutante as they are prone to run into space, which would make winning a tall order. Again, if the best place to be is on the stands' rail (high draw) it would be a very tough task. Unless seriously fancied in the betting I would take a watching brief.

In 2012 Mick Easterby won this race with My Boy Bill, who was well backed just before the off. This colt proved a real disappointment thereafter. The trainer sends out Hoofithully & Mountain Man. The stable feature a terrible strike rate on debut and unless well supported are best watched. On reflection, Mountain Man is part owned by E Brook, who has won this race with Bill Turner on at least two occasion. May have a chance if backed.    

Toytown is owned by Brian Johnson. This son of Excellent Art cost 23.000 euros at the yearling sales. Derek Shaw's two-year-olds often improve for their first run and best watched.     

Monsieur Jimmy was bought by his trainer, Declan Carroll, for 8,000gns at the yearling sales. This stable are a canny bunch and gambles are worth noting.   

Stan Moore field three juveniles: Cornwallville, Endislie & Well Fleeced - all cheap purchases. This stable do have debut winners but they are infrequent and generally best watched. It is worth noting that this trainer's Brocklesby entrants usually go on to win in their formative season. They are likely to go well on their second start. For horse trainer comments check out Horse Trainer Directory. 

Johnny Sorrento is a homebred out of a winning mare, both trained by Tim Pitt. Both the dam & sire won on debut. This stable's two-year-olds usually improve for their initial start.   

Alan McCabe is a very talented trainer and knows when he has a horse with a fighting chance. Red Connect was a very cheap foal and sold as a yearling for £10,000. The mare was unraced and his sire more appreciative of a mile. Unless priced 13/2 & less I would watch and learn. If strongly fancied in the betting very good place claims.   

*Northgate Lad cost 26,00 euros when purchased by the trainer at the yearling sales. There are a few decent sorts in the family although a stiffer trip may be more suiting. 

Horsforth, Duques Penguin and Cock Of The North would need to be gambled to figure today. 

Unless seriously backed, Penalty Scorer is best watched. 

Conclusion: It is always a challenge to find the winner of the first two-year-old race of the season. With soft ground it could make for an eventful race if this field split in two, racing up the rails. One trainer stands out in this race and that is Bill Turner. His performance in this race is exceptional and it is a plus he tries to win this race by sending his best early juvenile. On the opposite side of the coin this filly has to take on the colts, cost little money and her breeding looks pretty average. The betting will be key. If priced under 8/1 I expect a bold show but if particularly weak in the betting it would be a negative. Flyball should be respected although a relatively cheap buy. Escalating is an intriguing runner although a low draw may bring problems. Once again, the betting is key for this juvenile and would need to be priced 10/1 & less to figure. Even then I would be careful. Magic Florence is well bred but the stable have a poor strike rate and drawn one is a major concern if awkward from the stalls. Red Connect would have strong win and place claims if priced 13/2 & less. The betting will show the major hopes and the best guide. A watching brief. 

*NR