Tuesday 17 September 2019

2:00 Redcar Racing Tips (17th September)

2:00 Redcar - 

Can't see much here. Tate's River Cam keeps losing and it will either win with ease or look poor. I won't be betting. No bet. 

2:10 Yarmouth - Not keen on Nursery races but think Blausee will run a race simply because she has been racing in a too higher class and McBride likes Yarmouth. Only two places so will be watching unless it drifts to a big price. No bet. 

2:40 Yarmouth -

Buhturi has a string of entries but doesn't look anything special to me and the win penalty is a real concern at even money. Tiger Crusade is a lovely looking horse. Difficult to know what to make of its debut run. It was ok without making you want to bet. He has decent stats second time out at 13/2 & less. One of the few respected in this field. Haggas debutantes can win although his general stats are poor and I would rather take them on. One Night Stand could be of interest each way but there is an if and but (as usual). Jarvis does well at Yarmouth and has decent place stats when priced 15/2 and less. It is a nice-looking horse in a race that looks out of four horses. The problem is the way it pulled on debut. It didn't just pull - it pulled like it was half-mad. It has been off course for 24 days and I imagine they have been trying to get it to settle. It may well do that. The trouble is that it might not. You can get away pulling over 6f but it isn't ideal. The way it pulled on debut I am fearing it will be keen and with a relatively small field if it isn't covered up will probably pull and ruin any chance. In that sense, I would rather do a win bet than each-way because I imagine it will be all or nothing. It is one of those horses which you want to bet but fears at the same time. 

Unless I can get a big price on the exchanges I will just watch. One Night Stand (It has a very good each-way chance if not pulling) 

3:50 Chepstow - 

This looks a great chance for Festival Day. It will be far too short although it will probably win well. It's a pity this isn't 3 places as it wouldn't surprise me to see Kodiellen run much better at big odds. I don't think it ran its race last time out. It was a tough race and the going just made the losers look hopeless. It is stepping up in distance and has three significant entries. The problem is that it may not be possible to beat the favourite. If they try to win the race rather than go for a place and hope anything could happen. I may have a bet on the favourite at 1/2 and bet on the exchanges on Kodiellen if I can get 30/1 and just hope the favourite has a disaster and something picks up the pieces. It still isn't likely but that is about the only bet I can see. 

Festival Day win (Kodiellen may go well at a price but looks a bet you may regret.)

Not bet. 

7:00 Newcastle - 

Interesting race. Clegane has been given another Class 2 entry of late and will appreciate this step up in distance. There is still a slight question mark even stepping up to 7f just in the fact that the horse still hasn't quite proved itself when it is priced as if it has. It may be worth an each-way be if drifting in the betting. If it can't be placed here then it would prove a very disappointing horse. The favourite is ok but on the small side and I don't think it is brilliant. Just a fair horse but short-priced. Lasting Legacy will enjoy this step up in distance and may have place claims although I can't see it winning. The strangest horse in the race which looks to have no chance is David Lanigan's Exotic Escape. It looks hopeless but he gave it a Class 2 stakes entry. He either thinks it has the ability or must have gone mad. To be fair it ran so poorly that you could say it was too bad to be true. And as I have said before the worse they look sometimes the better they are. It is 100/1 so you kind of think well how can it have any ability. That seems true but I have seen a good few horses run well at massive odds. Dogged trained by David Elworth's nearly won the other day and that was 100/1 early. It was about 200/1 on the exchanges. Who knows if Exotic Escape will do anything. The trainer has had a couple of 40/1 winners second start so it may have a chance. I will probably have a very small bet each way and just pray for a result. 

Clegane ew if big enough although I won't be betting. Exotic Escape (I will bet small each way and hope it is a miracle) 

8:00 Newcastle - 

I generally hate these low-class nursery races and I may hate them after this. However, I did notice that Imperial Eagle is stepping up to 7f for the first time and has an official rating of 55. Lawrence Mullaney doesn't have many two-year-olds but he is no fool. The horse looks a battler and it ran quite well at 5f so this step up in distance may see a very different horse. At the end of the day, it would be a speculative bet each way and just hope to get a big priced winner. 

Imperial Eagle (small ew speculative bet 20/1+)