Sunday 17 May 2015

6:35 Windsor Racing Tips (18th May) BRITISH STALLION STUDS EBF MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (Plus 10 Race)

An EBF Maiden fillies Stakes over 5f 10y on good going. Ten runners: three raced, debutantes from a mix of trainers. 

Dream Dreamer is a good-looking daughter of first-season sire Dream Ahead out of a Listed placed and group raced mare. This February foal looks a bargain yearling buy at £35,000. Jamie Osborne always buys a good, physical specimen and this bay is held in some regard by connections. There was talk of this juvenile going to the Marygate Listed Stakes at York so this looks an realistic detour. She ran well on debut over course and distance in a fair race and then a little keen when setting the pace for a long way in a strong Ascot maiden. If available at each-way price is a decent bet. 

John Bridger doesn't train many two-year-olds but a capable handler when given the ammunition. Stormflower has ability but too keen to do herself justice on both starts to date. Temperamental horses can be hard work and betting on them is something you should only consider only at big odds. It will be intriguing to see which tactics are employed as stall one is a perfect draw to try and lead all the way. This daughter of Arcano has the pace to give a bold show but it would greatly improve her chances if settled. That looks unlikely, which is a shame as she has enough ability to win a small race. The tissue odds on Sporting Life detail she will be a 13/2 shot. That doesn't inspire. I would rather lay this horse at 1.01 in-running and hope she gains an impressive lead and tires rapidly. 

Nidnod hasn't been seen on course since making her debut at Newmarket over 5f. Hugo Palmer does well with his two-year-old string and talented. This Irish-bred daughter of Myboycharlie cost 30,000GNS at the yearling sales. She was quite fancied on debut, showing good pace before being bumped and eased in the closing stages. The most prominent thought from that day is that she is a very small filly. The form of that race has been franked in some respects. A difficult filly to assess. Hugo Palmer does pretty well with his juveniles when fancied on their second start when priced 13/2 & less. If within this betting guide this horses would have fair each way claims but if weak in the market I would take a watching brief. 

The first juvenile of the season for Hughie Morrison. It is interesting to see him have an early two-year-old because they have proven to be future winners although very few win on debut. Cinders is a daughter of Lilborne Lad and cost 62,000eur at the yearling sales [70,000gns foal]. The only exception to the rule that this stable's juvenile debutantes can win is if they are priced 14/1 & less in the betting if not 10/1 & less. They have a fighting chance. In addition, it is worth noting that just about all of Morrison's early horses go on to win in their two-year-old careers. I would definitely take note of this juvenile on its second start at any odds.     

One trainer who can be a powerhouse with debutantes is Roger Varian. Gwendolyn, a January foal sired by Invincible Spirit out of a twice-listed winning mare was fancied in the betting when making her debut at Ascot in a very hot race. She was withdrawn after refusing to go in the stalls. I would be surprised if this bay filly didn't have ability. If priced 13/2 & less has sound each way claims.   

Richard Hannon needs little introduction at this course - it's a hunting ground for winners. Stroke Of Midnight is a daughter of Dark Angel owned by Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds who always register with top-flight horses. They are not the kind of people to have two-year-olds in training unless they can win. This yearling cost 45,000euro. A wide draw isn't ideal but a stable to respect.      

Robert Eddery is a canny trainer and is worth noting with his two-year-olds. He has fielded one debut winner this season. Bedazzling Lady was purchased by the trainer at the Breeze-up sales for £16,000. In general, the stable doesn't have first time out winners and unless seriously backed I'd take a watching brief. 

Bourne Symphony, Clever Divya & Q Ten Girl are best watched. 

Conclusion: A fascinating race. Dream Dreamer sets a decent standard and if prices allow is a sound each-way bet. Gwendolyn wasn't on her best behaviour at Ascot when withdrawn. However, we have an opportunity that day to glean she was one of the major fancies. I can't imagine Varian sending her there without knowing she has ability. If priced 13/2 & less I'd be quite fearful of this juvenile. Difficult to assess Bedazzling Lady but respected. Cinders is worth noting for the future. Nidnod may have each way claims if 13/2 & less. A small horse who is difficult to assess. I'd lay Stormflower in-running at short odds. If an huge outsider I may have backed her to win but at short odds this horse looks a good lay bet to me [1.2 & less]. Dream Dreamer & Gwendolyn look the best bets.