Wednesday 16 July 2014

2:15 Hamilton Racing Tip (17th July) IRISH CHAMPIONS WEEKEND EBF MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo)

An EBF Maiden Stakes over 5f 4y on good ground. Eight two-year-olds take part: three colts/gelding and handful of fillies. Five horses have race experience. This looks a pretty ordinary race with a few debutantes from less fashionable stables and others who need to be primed against a few with race savvy. Craigemdar is the horse of focus. This daughter of Tagula cost £44,00 from the Doncaster 2yo Breeze Up Sale 2014. This bay filly wasn't overly fancied on debut but ran a great race if not a little too keen in the early stages which told in the final furlong. That pace may be blunted by dropping back to the minimum trip but she will finish with gusto. David Barron is a supreme trainer and this race doesn't have much depth. There will not be too much meat on the bone but I've snapped up about 2/1 on Betfair, which I expect to lay off at shorter odds to a decent no-lose bet. If it happened to drift to bigger odds I'd simply put more money on this horse. Looks to have a touch of class against this field.  

2:35 Brighton - Burning The Clocks is on a recovery mission after disappointing at Yarmouth. Connections were disappointed by that effort and expect a big run today. Amber Crystal steps up in distance after running over the minimum trip. On breeding you would think it will be a positive although she is a keen horse and has seemingly struggled to finish her races so far. If settling, John Gallagher's charge could set a stern test for many of these and likely to travel with supreme ease. If available at fair odds I will be tempted to try and lay at shorter odds in-running. Such betting strategies can be a tricky business if connections have a change of tactics but looks a fair bet to hit shorter odds. I would be tempted to lay a few quid at 1.01 to win a few thousand if going clear of the field because she could well hit a brick wall in the final furlong. 

7:00 Doncaster - A decent-looking race. From a statistical point of view I'd keep an eye on John Gosden's Lashkaal. This home bred daughter of Teofilo ran with promise on debut and if priced at 13/2 & less must have decent win and place claims. 

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