Tuesday 11 February 2014

6:15 Kempton (12th February) Free Racing Tips

6.15 Kempton - Shawkantango has recorded a very fast time on good-to-firm going at Folkestone so has to be a danger. But its all-weather form is not as good. Top Cop may find this a bit too short and is the type that likes to track the leaders. I think these may go too fast for him. Island Legend likes to try and lead and is the only natural front runner. It is my top rated and if it gets an easy lead it will be very hard to beat. Decent Fella is another that may find this too sharp and may get outpaced. Desert Strike can either track the leaders or even lead and comes out second on my figures. I'm hoping it will not try to force the early pace else it will be set up for a fast finisher. Only Ten Percent may find this trip too short but will be finishing quite well. But I doubt if it will be good enough to win. Pull The Pin may prefer a slower course like Southwell. It likes to track the leaders, but again, I think on this course it will find them too fast. Mossgo can either track the leaders or even lead if needs be but I doubt if it will really want to try and lead in this race but it comes out third on my ratings and could be in the frame.

Summary:  I'm hoping Island Legend will be allowed to bowl along in front and would then be very hard to beat but with a possible three horses pushing the pace the race might be turned on its head and the leaders burn each other out, which would then leave it at the mercy of the finishers. My idea would be to back the selection and have a saver on Shawkantango hoping it can show its Folkestone form here. I've looked at the betting and am surprised to see that Pull The Pin is 2/1 favourite. I only have it down as my fifth top rated and down to sixth if Shawkantango shows its best form, so I think I would also be laying the favourite. (E.R.I.C.) 

8.15 Kempton - I'm not going through the form of every horse in this race because I can't get a picture in my mind of how the race could unfold. The first problem is where the early pace will come from because there's no known front runner. New Rich has run well the last twice being held up and finishing fast he's second on my figures but I'm not sure the race will be run to suit this horse as i doubt if the leaders will be fading. My selection, Secret Millionaire, is also usually a hold-up horse but I'm hoping it can be near enough to use its finishing kick to good effect. With the lack of pace I wouldn't be backing anything with full confidence in this race so keep stakes to a minimum. (E.R.I.C.)

6.15 Kempton - Island Legend 12/1 ew Unp
8.15 Kempton -  Secret Millionaire 4/1 Unp